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Flamengo v Mirassol: Home Strength Meets a Persistent Defensive Problem. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Flamengo’s unbeaten home run and strong scoring form contrast with Mirassol’s defensive frailty, which has conceded in nearly every match. Mirassol’s ability to create chances supports the both teams to score condition, despite their low recent scoring rate. Flamengo’s late scoring pattern also suggests goals after a patient start.
Flamengo’s recent scoring surge and Mirassol’s defensive frailty make a 3-1 scoreline credible, supported by past encounters and current form. Mirassol’s ability to score once is backed by recent matches despite their overall struggles.
Compare form, H2H, goals trends and key data for Flamengo v Mirassol.
Flamengo welcome Mirassol to Estádio do Maracanã on Wednesday for a rescheduled Serie A fixture that brings together second place and 16th.
Flamengo vs Mirassol — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Flamengo’s recent wins contrast with Mirassol’s limited success, favouring the home side.
Mirassol hold the stronger winning edge, while Flamengo still offer enough threat for BTTS.
Flamengo carry the stronger defensive profile, while Mirassol remain vulnerable in the likely scoreline.
Mirassol hold the stronger overall profile, leaving Flamengo needing a sharper performance.
Three Punchy Stats
- Flamengo are unbeaten in 24 consecutive home league matches, giving Mirassol a considerable obstacle before the individual match-ups are even considered.
- Mirassol have conceded in 23 of their last 24 Serie A games, an uncomfortable record against a Flamengo side averaging 2.0 league goals per match.
- Flamengo scored five from 15 attempts in the teams’ August meeting, while Mirassol scored once from 16, a striking illustration of the finishing gap that separated them.
Recent Wins
Recent attacking records for Flamengo and Mirassol are shown below.
Defensive Records
Recent defensive records for Flamengo and Mirassol are shown below.
The gap in the table is reflected in their recent numbers, but the more revealing contrast is between Flamengo’s reliable attacking output and a Mirassol defence that has struggled to keep opponents out.
The hosts arrive after beating Botafogo 3-0 and have scored in each of their last six matches. Mirassol, by comparison, are winless in five. Their 1-1 draw with leaders Palmeiras showed they can frustrate stronger opposition, yet doing so at a ground where Flamengo have gone 24 league matches unbeaten presents a rather different test.
Flamengo Are Producing More Than Just Results
Flamengo’s recent record carries substance behind it. They have won three of their last five matches, drawing once and losing once, while averaging 2.4 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Across the league campaign, their return of 14 wins, six draws and four defeats has been supported by averages of 2.0 goals for and only 0.9 against.
Their latest performance fitted that wider pattern. Flamengo controlled 63% of possession against Botafogo and produced 18 attempts, six on target, with Lino scoring twice before Jorge Carrascal completed the 3-0 win.
There is also a strong home pattern. Twenty-four league matches without defeat at the Maracanã is significant enough on its own, while Flamengo have led at half-time in their last three home fixtures and seven of their previous ten home league games.
Yet those starts have not necessarily been chaotic. Each of their last 11 home league matches contained fewer than 1.5 first-half goals. The stronger scoring trend comes later: Flamengo’s last 26 games have all produced at least one second-half goal.
Mirassol’s Main Problem Is Difficult to Hide
Mirassol have become hard to beat without becoming good enough at winning. Their last five matches have brought four draws and one defeat, while their ten-game sequence contains six draws alongside only one victory.
The attacking return is modest. They have scored four goals across their last six matches and averaged 0.8 per game over the latest five. Eduardo found the net in the 1-1 draw with Palmeiras, when Mirassol put five of their 11 attempts on target, but sustained scoring has been difficult.
More concerning is what happens at the other end. Mirassol have conceded in 23 of their last 24 league matches, with their season average standing at 1.5 goals allowed per game. Flamengo concede only 0.9 and score 0.9 more per match, a substantial difference across both penalty areas.
Mirassol are unbeaten in their last two away league fixtures, so there is some resistance to work with. Neto Moura is suspended, while Edson, José Aldo and Negueba have been identified as possible injury absentees. Flamengo could be without Alex Sandro, De La Cruz and Vitão.
The Previous Meeting Sharpens the Concern
The most recent meeting hardly offers Mirassol reassurance. Flamengo won 5-1 on 16 August despite Mirassol producing 16 shots to Flamengo’s 15.
Efficiency made the difference. Flamengo put eight attempts on target and scored five times through Carrascal, Araújo, Pedro twice and Lino. Mirassol managed five efforts on target but only Victor converted.
That distinction between attacking volume and reward feels relevant again. Mirassol can generate attempts, as they also showed against Palmeiras, but Flamengo currently combine greater scoring output with the more secure defensive record.
Other Opportunities in This Market
- Match Result (Flamengo Win @ 2/9): Settles strictly on Flamengo leading after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. This removes the requirement for Mirassol to score, accepting shorter odds to cover clean-sheet victories such as 1-0, 2-0, or 3-0.
- Over 2.5 Goals (@ 4/7): Requires at least three total goals scored in the match by either team combined. This offers settlement on wider scorelines (e.g. 3-0, 2-1, 2-2) without requiring a specific winner or an away goal.
- Both Teams to Score – YES (@ 11/10): Wins if both Flamengo and Mirassol score at least once. The final match result is irrelevant, so 1-1 or 2-2 draws settle as winning bets while any clean sheet defeats the selection.
📊 Market Explainer
Win & Both Teams to Score
Selection: Flamengo to win and both teams to score. The selected team must win in normal time and both teams must score. If the selected team draws or loses, or either side fails to score, the bet loses.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Flamengo vs Mirassol 3-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Flamengo to win and both teams to score @ 2/1
Flamengo enter this rescheduled fixture sitting second in Serie A, backed by a 24-match unbeaten league record at the Maracanã. Their offensive production has remained steady, with the hosts averaging 2.0 goals per match across the league campaign and increasing that output to 2.4 goals per game over their last five fixtures. That scoring capacity was evident in their recent 3-0 victory against Botafogo, where Flamengo controlled 63% of possession and generated 18 attempts. Facing a Mirassol defence that has failed to keep a clean sheet in 23 of their last 24 league matches, Flamengo possess clear conditions to secure another home victory.
However, the main selection requires Mirassol to contribute to the scoreline, which is supported by recent evidence despite their overall winless run of five games. Mirassol managed 11 attempts and put five on target during their 1-1 draw with leaders Palmeiras, and they registered 16 attempts in their August meeting with Flamengo. Although Flamengo won that previous encounter 5-1, they still allowed five shots on target and conceded once. With Flamengo averaging 1.0 goal conceded per game across their last five outings and missing defensive personnel like Alex Sandro and Vitão, Mirassol have proven capable of creating chances even when outmatched overall.
The principal counter-argument rests on Mirassol’s modest overall scoring rate, having produced just four goals across their last six fixtures and averaging 0.8 goals per match over the last five. Additionally, 11 consecutive home games for Flamengo have seen fewer than 1.5 first-half goals, suggesting a patient start rather than an early blowout. Nevertheless, Mirassol’s long-standing defensive vulnerability combined with Flamengo’s continuous late scoring—registering a second-half goal in 26 straight games—makes the combination of a home win and both teams scoring a cohesive selection.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Flamengo are unbeaten in 24 consecutive home league matches at the Maracanã.
- Mirassol have conceded in 23 of their last 24 Serie A matches, allowing 1.5 goals per game.
- Mirassol generated 16 attempts (5 on target) against Flamengo and 5 of 11 on target vs Palmeiras.
Risk Factor: Mirassol’s low scoring rate and Flamengo’s strong possession control could limit away goals.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Scored 5 goals from 8 shots on target against Mirassol in August and average 2.4 goals per match over their last 5 games.
Conceded in 23 of their last 24 league matches, allowing 1.5 goals per game overall while remaining winless in 5 matches.
⚔️ Pick 2: Flamengo vs Mirassol 3-1 @ 9/1
Justifying a 3-1 outcome begins with Flamengo’s established scoring volume at home and Mirassol’s defensive profile. Flamengo average 2.0 goals per match over the league season, but their recent form shows an upward trajectory to 2.4 goals per fixture across their last five matches. In their 3-0 win over Botafogo, they generated 18 attempts with six on target, showing an ability to capitalize on defensive gaps. Mirassol concede an average of 1.5 goals per match over the campaign and have allowed goals in 23 of their past 24 league fixtures. Facing a Flamengo attack that scored five times against them in August, Mirassol’s defensive vulnerabilities make three home goals realistic.
The single goal for Mirassol is equally grounded in the provided statistics. Despite being winless in five matches, Mirassol scored in their 1-1 draw against Palmeiras and scored during their 5-1 defeat to Flamengo in August, where they actually outshot Flamengo by 16 attempts to 15. Mirassol placed five shots on target in both of those fixtures, demonstrating that they routinely generate working attempts against top-tier opponents. With Flamengo conceding an average of 1.0 goal per game over their last five matches and contending with squad absences like Alex Sandro, De La Cruz, and Vitão, Mirassol have sufficient precedent to break through once at the Maracanã.
While the August meeting produced six total goals, Flamengo’s lower-scoring first halves at home—11 straight containing under 1.5 goals—suggest a more controlled match pattern than a total blowout. Mirassol’s average of 0.8 goals per game over their last five matches also limits expectations for a higher away tally. A 3-1 scoreline aligns with Flamengo’s superior conversion and Mirassol’s persistent scoring gaps, though exact-score bets remain inherently fragile to a single missing or late extra goal.
Risk Factor: Mirassol’s defensive frailty supports Flamengo scoring multiple goals, but exact score bets remain fragile.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does "Flamengo to win and both teams to score" mean?
Flamengo must win and Mirassol must score at least one goal for this bet to win.
What if Flamengo win 3-0?
This bet loses because Mirassol failed to score despite Flamengo’s win.
Why is 3-1 a plausible correct score?
Flamengo’s scoring and Mirassol’s defensive record support a 3-1 outcome.
Does extra time count for these markets?
No, only goals in 90 minutes plus stoppage time count for settlement.
How does Mirassol’s defence affect the main selection?
Their frequent conceding gives Flamengo a strong chance to score multiple goals.
What is the main risk to both teams scoring?
Mirassol’s recent low scoring could see them held goalless by Flamengo.
