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Will Tunisia’s wing-backs set the tone against Uganda’s counter-punching shape? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Tunisia's selection is based on their superior defensive record and historical dominance over Uganda. With a 40% clean sheet rate in recent competitive matches and an average of 2.00 goals scored per game, the Carthage Eagles possess the balance required for tournament football. Uganda has shown defensive frailty in high-profile matches, such as their 4-0 loss to Morocco, suggesting Tunisia's clinical 21% conversion rate will be decisive. While Uganda has creative threats, Tunisia’s structural discipline and experience in controlling possession (53% average) should see them manage the game effectively to secure the win.
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This scoreline reflects Tunisia's trend of scoring 2.00 goals per match while maintaining a sturdy defense that has conceded just one goal per game on average. Tunisia’s back-five system is designed to minimize high-quality chances for the opposition, evidenced by their 1.06 xG against. Given Uganda’s potential for defensive lapses against top-tier CAF opponents and Tunisia’s high efficiency in front of goal (21% conversion), a two-goal margin is a logical outcome. It balances Tunisia's offensive output with their ability to keep a clean sheet in 40% of their recent outings.
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Tunisia vs Uganda Predictions and Best Bets
Tunisia vs Uganda — bet365 Market Snapshot
Key match pricing and implied probabilities based on listed tournament odds.
Tunisia are clear favourites to take all three points in this opening fixture based on their defensive stability and historical record.
Tunisia’s defensive record suggests a likely win to nil, with a 1-0 or 2-0 scoreline the primary expectations.
Tunisia’s 2.00 goals per match average suggests there could be value in total goals markets despite their strong defence.
- Tunisia come in with five wins, three draws and two losses across their last 10 fixtures, backed by 20 goals scored and 10 conceded in 10 World Cup 2025 matches.
- Uganda’s recent run shows six wins, one draw and three losses in their last 10 fixtures, with 18 goals scored and 11 conceded across 10 International Friendlies 2025 matches.
- Both teams show the same listed finishing efficiency: Tunisia have a 21% shots conversion rate in World Cup 2025, and Uganda also sit at 21% in International Friendlies 2025.
Attacking Reliability: Shot Conversion Rates
Both teams demonstrate a clinical nature in the final third, sharing identical efficiency levels in converting their chances.
Tunisia averages 2.00 goals per match, underlining their ability to turn controlled possession into concrete scoring moments.
Uganda matches the North Africans for efficiency, meaning any lapses in the Tunisian backline could be quickly punished.
Defensive Stability: Expected Goals Against
A comparison of how many high-quality chances each defence concedes per match provides a glimpse into their respective structural security.
Tunisia’s setup limits opponents to just over one quality chance per game, contributing to their high clean sheet percentage.
Uganda allows slightly higher quality opportunities to their opponents, suggesting Tunisia’s clinical unit will find openings.
Tunisia begin their 2025 Africa Cup of Nations campaign against Uganda on Tuesday, with the Carthage Eagles aiming to make a fast, authoritative start at Stade Olympique Annexe Complexe Sportif Prince Abdellah. It is a meeting that brings together a side talking openly about adding a second continental crown in Morocco and an opponent facing a properly stiff examination straight out of the blocks.
There’s also an intriguing contrast in how these squads look on paper. Tunisia’s suggested XI reads like a team built to control risk first and ask questions later; Uganda’s looks more like a side that wants runners around a central forward, with enough midfield steel to keep the centre from turning into a motorway.
Tournament openers can be awkward things. Nerves, rhythm, and the first big tactical decision all arrive at once. For Tunisia, the job is to impose their structure early and make the pitch feel small for Uganda. For Uganda, it’s about staying connected, riding the first wave, and finding moments where their front unit can turn Tunisia’s defending into a scramble rather than a set-piece rehearsal.
If this one settles into a pattern quickly, it will probably do so because of the shapes we’re expecting to see from the first whistle.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Tunisia’s possible starting lineup is listed as: Dahmen; Meriah, Bronn, Valery, Talbi, Abdi; Sassi, Gharbi, Ouanes; Saad, Mastouri.
That grouping points strongly towards a back five, with Meriah, Bronn and Valery as the central trio and Talbi and Abdi as the wing-backs. In front of them, Sassi, Gharbi and Ouanes gives you a three-man midfield that can either sit as a screen to protect the centre or step up and play in pockets, depending on the game state. Then Saad and Mastouri appear as a front two: a pairing that can split to threaten the channels or stay close to pin defenders and make second balls matter.
Uganda’s possible starting lineup is listed as: Onyango; Sibbick, Mukundane, Obita, Herbert; Semakula, Aucho; Lorenzen, Ikpeazu, Okello; Mukwala.
That looks like a 4-2-3-1: a back four protected by Semakula and Aucho, with Lorenzen and Ikpeazu either side of Okello behind Mukwala. The double pivot is the key here. It can compress space in front of the centre-backs, but it can also be the platform for quick, direct breaks if Uganda can win the ball in midfield and release runners early.
The headline, then, is clear: Tunisia’s five across the back and three in midfield is designed to be hard to play through; Uganda’s 4-2-3-1 is designed to be hard to play against if the transitions are sharp.
How the Match Could Be Played
If Tunisia do line up with wing-backs, expect the ball to travel wide early and often. A back five gives you natural width in build-up, and it also invites a specific kind of problem for Uganda: do the wide attackers—Lorenzen and Ikpeazu—drop with Tunisia’s wing-backs, or do they stay high to keep counter-attacking threat?
If they drop, Uganda may become compact and narrow in a way that keeps Tunisia outside—but it can also leave Mukwala isolated and turn every clearance into a long jog back to the halfway line. If they stay high, Tunisia’s wing-backs can receive with fewer immediate pressures, and the game becomes about whether Uganda’s full-backs can handle both the wing-back ahead of them and the wide movements of Saad or Mastouri into the channel.
Uganda’s double pivot of Semakula and Aucho is likely to be asked to do two jobs at once: protect the space in front of Obita and Mukundane, and prevent Tunisia’s midfield three from playing comfortably between the lines. That’s where Gharbi and Ouanes become interesting. With Sassi in the mix, Tunisia can choose to keep one midfielder deeper to reduce turnover risk, while letting the other two drift into the half-spaces to combine with the wing-backs.
Out of possession, Tunisia’s shape should be naturally stable. A back five can absorb switches and crosses with bodies already in the danger zone. The pressing question is how aggressive the front two are in leading pressure—because Uganda’s build-up, with two central midfielders and a No.10 in Okello, gives them triangles that can play around a straight two-man press if Tunisia don’t get support behind it.
For Uganda, the best route into the match might be to make the centre of the pitch feel busy. If Okello can receive and turn, even briefly, he can bring Lorenzen and Ikpeazu into play early, and Mukwala’s role becomes about pinning the centre-backs and forcing the back line to run towards their own goal. The flip side is that if Okello gets crowded out—Sassi and the centre of Tunisia’s midfield three stepping into him quickly—Uganda’s attacks may be forced wide, where Tunisia’s wing-back plus outside centre-back support can create 2v1 situations.
A key theme could be how the game looks after turnovers. Tunisia’s structure suggests they’ll be set to prevent counters by having numbers behind the ball. Uganda’s suggests they’ll try to counter anyway—because with three behind Mukwala, there are immediate forward options if the first pass sticks. The side that wins the “first pass after regaining possession” exchanges could decide the match’s momentum: keep it, and you get territory; lose it, and you spend another minute defending.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Tunisia’s recent run is listed as five wins, three draws and two losses across their last 10 fixtures, and their World Cup 2025 record shows 20 goals scored and 10 conceded across 10 matches. That points to a team that generally finds a way to score—2.00 goals per match is also noted—while still allowing opponents enough looks to keep games live, with 1.00 conceded per match.
The underlying chance figures add detail: Tunisia’s xG For per match is listed at 1.26, with xG Against at 1.06. In plain terms, that suggests Tunisia have typically created slightly better chances than they’ve allowed, without it being a complete one-sided story. That matters against Uganda because it frames the match as one where Tunisia’s control could be real—but not necessarily suffocating—especially if Uganda can turn defensive moments into quick entries for their front four.
Uganda arrive with their own positive trend: six wins, one draw and three losses in their last 10 fixtures, and 18 goals scored with 11 conceded across 10 matches in International Friendlies 2025. Their xG For per match is listed at 1.21, with xG Against at 1.15—again, a slim edge rather than a landslide. The profile supports an interpretation of Uganda as a side capable of producing enough to score in games, while still being vulnerable if pinned back for long stretches.
There’s also a stylistic hint in possession averages: Tunisia are listed at 53% possession on average, while Uganda are listed at 50%. It’s not a massive gap, but it’s enough to suggest Tunisia are comfortable spending a little more time on the ball—useful if they’re trying to make Uganda’s 4-2-3-1 shuffle side-to-side and eventually open a lane for a runner or a cut-back.
And if this becomes a match of fine margins in the area, both sides show similar efficiency in one eye-catching metric: Tunisia’s shots conversion rate is listed at 21%, and Uganda’s is also listed at 21%. It’s a reminder that, when chances arrive, this might not be the kind of game where one side needs five perfect opportunities to score once.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first big moment may come before either goalkeeper has worked up a sweat: who wins the wide battles? Tunisia’s wing-backs—Talbi and Abdi—look central to how they can progress the ball, but they also carry responsibility in transition. If Uganda can tempt those wing-backs high and then release Lorenzen or Ikpeazu quickly, the next duel becomes uncomfortable: an outside centre-back stepping wide, space opening centrally, and Mukwala trying to turn one good delivery into one big chance.
Then there’s the Okello question. Uganda list Allan Okello as the central attacker behind Mukwala, and his output in International Friendlies 2025 includes three assists. If he finds room between Tunisia’s midfield and back line, Uganda can turn a “survive and settle” opening into something far more ambitious. If Tunisia can crowd him and force Uganda to play around the outside, those assists become less relevant and the game starts to look like Tunisia probing patiently for a breakthrough.
Set-piece feel matters too, even without needing to guess routines. Tunisia’s overall discipline profile shows they commit 16.71 fouls per match in World Cup 2025, while Uganda are listed at 14.67 in International Friendlies 2025. If the midfield becomes combative—Sassi and the Uganda pivot pair especially—cheap fouls can hand over territory and reset pressure. In a tournament opener, those pauses can either calm a side down or drag them into a stop-start rhythm they don’t want.
Finally, keep an eye on how long the match stays “balanced” in terms of game state. Tunisia’s listed clean sheets rate in World Cup 2025 is 40%, while Uganda’s clean sheets rate in International Friendlies 2025 is 50%. If either side lands an early goal, their numbers suggest they’re at least capable of protecting it often enough—meaning the next phase becomes about patience, not panic.
What could go wrong with this read? A lot, honestly. Tournament openers can flip on one misjudged press, one loose pass in the build-up, or one moment where a second ball drops kindly. And with both teams showing the same 21% shots conversion rate in their listed competitions, a single clinical finish can tilt the tactical story in a direction nobody expected five minutes earlier.
Best Bet for Tunisia vs Uganda
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Tunisia to Win
The decision to favor Tunisia in this opening group fixture is grounded in their superior defensive organization and a historically dominant record against this specific opponent. Tunisia enters the tournament having secured five wins and three draws in their last 10 fixtures, a run characterized by a disciplined approach that has seen them concede just 1.00 goal per match. Their tactical setup, which often utilizes a back five including Yassine Meriah and Montassar Talbi, provides a layer of structural security that is difficult for emerging sides to penetrate. This defensive solidity is further reflected in a 40% clean sheet rate during their recent competitive outings, suggesting they possess the necessary resilience to withstand pressure in the high-stakes environment of a tournament opener.
Furthermore, Tunisia’s offensive efficiency matches their defensive stability, boasting a 21% shot conversion rate. While they may not generate a high volume of chances—averaging an xG of 1.26 per match—they are highly clinical when opportunities arise. In contrast, while Uganda shows promise with six wins in their last 10 games, they maintain a higher xG against (1.15) and have faced defensive vulnerabilities, exemplified by a recent 4-0 defeat to Morocco. Tunisia’s ability to control the tempo, evidenced by their 53% average possession, should allow them to dictate the game’s rhythm and limit Uganda’s transition opportunities. Historically, Tunisia holds a perfect overall record against Uganda, winning all previous encounters with a cumulative score of 16-1. Given Tunisia’s greater experience at this level and their clinical edge in front of goal, they are the most justified selection to secure all three points.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to a Tunisia victory lies in the individual creative spark of Allan Okello, who has recorded three assists in recent friendly competitions and possesses the vision to unlock disciplined defenses. If Uganda’s double pivot can successfully disrupt Tunisia’s build-up and release their wide runners early, they could exploit the space behind Tunisia’s wing-backs. Additionally, tournament openers are often cagey; if Tunisia fails to convert their limited high-quality chances, a clinical Uganda side—which also shares a 21% conversion rate—could snatch a result on the counter.
Correct score lean: 2-0
A 2-0 scoreline aligns with the tactical expectation of a controlled Tunisian performance. Tunisia’s defensive statistics are formidable, having conceded only 10 goals across their last 10 matches while maintaining a structural back five that prioritizes clean sheets. Given that Tunisia averages 2.00 goals scored per match and possesses a clinical 21% conversion rate, they have the quality to find the net twice against a Ugandan defense that has shown lapses in major tests. Uganda’s struggle to score against elite North African opposition in past meetings further supports the likelihood of a comfortable Tunisian win without conceding.
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