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Anfield under the lights provides the setting for a classic David versus Goliath clash this Monday, as League One Barnsley travel to face Premier League giants Liverpool in the FA Cup third round. Here’s our Bet Builder pick for Liverpool vs Barnsley, which has been placed with Bet365:
Ryan Graydon over 0.5 fouls committed
Fouls Committed
Ryan Graydon's ultra-combative style makes him highly likely to commit at least one infraction at Wembley. Operating across wide positions and the frontline, the attacker racked up seventy-one fouls committed over the regular season while picking up ten yellow cards. He is deeply embedded in Salford’s high-press system, engaging in two hundred and sixty-five duels alongside eighty-five defensive contributions. Against a fluid Notts County midfield that relies heavily on quick combination passes, Graydon will consistently put his body on the line to break up transitions, ensuring the referee intervenes at least once during ninety minutes.
Ryan Graydon over 1.5 shots
Total Shots
Graydon acts as Salford’s primary direct attacking outlet, accumulating one hundred and one total shots across the league campaign—the second-highest tally in the division. He is a high-volume shooter who consistently searches for opening angles, firing eighty-seven of his attempts from inside the penalty area. Facing a fragile Notts County backline that allowed fifty-two regular-season goals and conceded a massive 1.45 Expected Goals in their semi-final second leg, Graydon will find plenty of opportunities to unleash attempts. His relentless nature ensures he will comfortably attempt at least two shots during the final.
Salford City over 3.5 corners
Total Corners
Salford’s direct offensive strategy relies extensively on utilising wide channels and executing rapid vertical counter-attacks to stretch opposing defensive blocks. This expansive approach generates high cross volumes, putting immense pressure on full-backs and forcing deflected clearances behind the goal-line. The frequency of Salford’s set-piece generation is mirrored by Graydon alone registering twenty-three shots from corner situations this season. Against a vulnerable Notts County defence that loses structural discipline during transition phases, the Ammies possess the necessary attacking momentum to force the ball out of play and secure at least four corner kicks easily.
Salford City draw no bet
Draw No Bet
Salford City retain a commanding psychological advantage over Notts County, having defeated them 2-1 in both regular-season league fixtures. Karl Robinson’s compact three-at-the-back alignment is custom-built to stifle the Magpies’ passing sequences before exposing their wide channels on the counter-attack. Notts County have a miserable record against elite opposition, conceding goals in nine out of ten games against top-six sides while registering just one clean sheet. Utilising the draw no bet market provides critical insurance in a high-stakes final, protecting the stake in a draw while backing the tactically superior team.
Over 2.5 total goals
Total Goals
Both teams possess high-octane attacking lines paired with volatile defensive units, creating the perfect recipe for a high-scoring final. Notts County conceded fifty-two regular-season goals, while Salford allowed fifty-five Expected Goals prior to the playoffs, demonstrating a shared inability to maintain defensive security. Furthermore, both regular-season encounters between these clubs finished with identical 2-1 scorelines, sailing over the target line. With individual talents like fifteen-goal Alassana Jatta and eleven-goal Ryan Graydon spearheading the respective attacks, this clash will easily open up to produce at least three total match goals.
While the 57-place gap in the football pyramid suggests a routine home win, Arne Slot’s side enters the fixture with a point to prove. Despite a 10-match unbeaten run, the Reds have drawn their last three games, struggling to find that killer instinct. With key stars like Mohamed Salah on international duty and heavy rotation confirmed, the door is slightly ajar for a Barnsley side that thrives on chaos. However, the Tykes concede heavily on their travels, setting the stage for Liverpool’s fringe stars—and emerging talents—to seize the spotlight.
Liverpool vs Barnsley Bet Builder Tip
Federico Chiesa: 2+ Shots on Target
The narrative surrounding Liverpool’s attack for this fixture begins and ends with the absence of Mohamed Salah. With the Egyptian talisman away on international duty and Dominik Szoboszlai listed as unavailable due to an ankle injury, the burden of creative output and finishing falls squarely on Federico Chiesa. The Italian winger is the most senior attacker available in the expected starting lineup, and his statistical profile suggests he will relish the responsibility against League One opposition.
Chiesa has played 228 minutes of Premier League football in the 2025/2026 campaign, and despite the limited game time, his volume is undeniable. He has unleashed 12 shots in that short window. To put that into perspective, he is averaging a shot roughly every 19 minutes of play. In a match where Liverpool are expected to dominate 60% of the possession and pin Barnsley deep into their own defensive third, Chiesa’s trigger-happy approach is exactly what the game state demands.
Barnsley’s defensive metrics are alarming for a team visiting Anfield. They have conceded an average of 1.83 goals per game over their last 30 matches. They give up chances, and against a Liverpool side that averages 15.1 shots per game, the goalkeeper will be busy. Chiesa, operating from the right or drifting centrally, naturally finds himself in high-value positions. His shot map confirms he is not afraid to fire from outside the box—registering three shots from range this season—but he does his best work inside the area, where he has taken nine shots.
Furthermore, Chiesa has already found the net twice this season in the league, with an Expected Goals (xG) tally of 1.23. His xG on Target (xGOT) is even higher at 1.63, indicating that when he hits the target, he hits it with quality. Against a lower-league defence that struggles to track runners and block passing lanes, Chiesa will have the time and space to shift the ball onto his preferred right foot and test the keeper repeatedly. He is the focal point of this rotated attack, and everything will go through him.
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Trey Nyoni: 2+ Shots on Target
With the senior midfield rotated, 18-year-old Trey Nyoni is lined up to start in the engine room alongside Alexis Mac Allister. While primarily a midfielder, Nyoni’s profile is far more attacking than a traditional holding player. His player data lists “Attacking Midfielder” among his positions, and his record at youth level proves he has an eye for goal.
Nyoni has scored four goals in 35 appearances for Liverpool’s U21 side, showing he knows how to time his runs into the box. In this specific matchup, the tactical landscape heavily favours Liverpool’s midfielders getting shots away. Barnsley will likely defend with a low block, packing the penalty area with bodies to deny space to the forwards. This dynamic typically forces the ball back to the edge of the box, where midfielders like Nyoni can step onto it and shoot.
Liverpool average 15.1 shots per match, and in a game where they will enjoy the lion’s share of territory, the midfielders will essentially operate as auxiliary attackers. Nyoni will be eager to make a mark in his first major start at Anfield. He faces a Barnsley side that is weak at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas, potentially leading to free-kick scrambles where shots fly in from all angles. Given the massive gap in quality and Barnsley’s leaky defence—shipping nearly two goals a game—Nyoni will have opportunities to pull the trigger.
Rio Ngumoha: 2+ Shots on Target
Completing this ambitious trio is 17-year-old sensation Rio Ngumoha, who is tipped to start on the left wing. Despite his tender age, Ngumoha has already shown a ruthless efficiency that betrays his lack of experience. In his fleeting Premier League minutes (48 minutes total), he has taken one shot and scored one goal. That represents a 100% conversion rate and a 100% shot-on-target rate. He doesn’t waste time.
Ngumoha has also netted twice in nine games for the U21s since January, proving his goal-scoring form is current. He faces a Barnsley defence that is statistically vulnerable to pace and direct running. The visitors concede goals in bunches and have lost four of their last six away games. For a direct winger like Ngumoha, this is the perfect environment.
The youngster’s primary position is Left Winger, allowing him to cut inside onto his right foot—a classic route to goal for modern forwards. With Chiesa occupying the defence on the right and Barnsley likely overwhelmed by Liverpool’s passing tempo (86.7% accuracy), isolation moments will occur on the flank. Ngumoha has the technical ability to beat his full-back and shoot. Liverpool need goals to break their draw streak, and the youngsters know that shooting on sight is the quickest way to impress the manager. Against a League One defence leaking 1.83 goals a game, Ngumoha will have ample opportunity to test the gloves.
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