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Egypt, Sheffield Utd & Man Utd All To Win








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United generate immense attacking volume at home (16.53 shots/game) compared to Newcastle’s blunt away attack (0.88 goals/away game). Despite missing Fernandes, United’s wing-back system creates enough chances to outscore a Newcastle side that takes over 100 minutes to score on the road.
Cunha is in the 98th percentile for shot attempts and becomes the primary attacker without Fernandes. With 47 shots this season and a willingness to shoot from both inside and outside the box, his usage rate will skyrocket in this fixture.
Sesko averages a shot every 37 minutes and maintains a high 42% accuracy. With 15 of his 19 shots coming from inside the box, he is the focal point of United’s attack. United’s reliance on crosses in Fernandes' absence plays to his aerial strengths.
This 16/1 selection leans on the specific game state created by Bruno Fernandes' absence. We expect United to dominate territory against a travel-shy Newcastle, forcing high shot volume from their two remaining key attackers, Cunha and Sesko, who must compensate for the missing captain.
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Windass is Wrexham's most frequent shooter (32 shots) and is performing in the 92nd percentile for shot attempts. He is clinical, scoring 6 goals from an xG of 3.39, and poses a threat from both inside and outside the box against a leaky Sheffield United defence.
With Wrexham missing key defenders like Cacace and Kabore, the 36-year-old McClean faces a heavy workload on the left flank. He has committed 16 fouls and made 30 tackles this season. Facing a possession-heavy Sheffield United (52.3%), he is a prime candidate for a tactical foul.
Sheffield United are a corner machine, having won 170 corners this season due to their sustained pressure. Combined with Wrexham’s direct aerial style (Moore wins 7.3 aerials/game) and both teams taking over 11 shots per game, the game script points to plenty of set-piece opportunities.
This 30/1 selection capitalizes on a high-scoring, chaotic matchup history. We back Wrexham’s main shooting threat in Windass, anticipate defensive discipline issues for an overworked McClean, and rely on Sheffield United’s massive corner generation (170 won) to drive the set-piece count high.
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History demands goals here, with previous meetings averaging 3.15 per game. Chelsea are lethal at home (1.73 xG) but leave gaps, while Aston Villa are on a 10-match winning streak despite conceding 1.44 xG per game. With key Villa defenders like Pau Torres out, and both sides possessing clinical attacks (29 and 27 goals respectively), a clean sheet for either side looks highly improbable.
Rogers is Villa’s top league scorer with seven goals and is in scintillating shooting form. He registered two shots on target in his last outing against Manchester United, as well as two against West Ham and Leeds recently. With nearly 50% of his 31 total shots this season hitting the target, he is the primary threat in transition.
Maresca has confirmed Palmer is finally ready for 90 minutes. Despite limited recent game time, Palmer ranks in the 96th percentile for shot attempts compared to his peers. Averages a shot every 28 minutes this season; with a full match to operate against a depleted Villa defence, his volume should translate into at least two efforts on goal.
This bet targets the specific tactical clash: Chelsea’s possession leaving them open to Villa’s counters, and two specific players who dominate their team’s offensive output. We are backing the statistical trend of goals in this fixture, combined with the proven recent accuracy of Morgan Rogers and the unleashing of a fully-fit Cole Palmer. It relies on an open, end-to-end game state, which the data strongly supports.
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Egypt, Sheffield Utd & Man Utd All To Win
Man Utd vs Newcastle: Both Teams To Score – Yes, Manchester United to win, Over 9.5 total corners
Man Utd vs Newcastle: FT Result: Man Utd, Matheus Cunha: 2+ Shots on Target & Benjamin Sesko: 2+ Shots on Target
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