Athletico Paranaense vs Corinthians predictions for this Brazilian Serie A contest. Athletico Paranaense host Corinthians on Sunday, aiming to rebound from recent setbacks in their title charge. Read on for our free Brazilian Serie A predictions and betting tips.
Brasileiro | Jun 23, 2024 at 8pm UK at Alinja Arena
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Athletico Paranaense vs Corinthians Predictions
Can Athletico Paranaense Continue Their Dominance Against Struggling Corinthians?
Key Stats
– Athletico Paranaense have kept five clean sheets in their last ten home matches.
– Corinthians have failed to score in seven of their ten league games this season.
– Gonzalo Mastriani has scored nine goals in league and continental fixtures this season.
As Athletico Paranaense prepare to host Corinthians on Saturday evening, the stakes are high for both sides but for very different reasons. Athletico PR, currently fourth in the Brasileiro standings, are looking to return to their winning ways and strengthen their title aspirations. Meanwhile, Corinthians are languishing near the bottom of the table, desperately seeking a turnaround to avoid the drop.
Recent Form and Team Analysis
Athletico Paranaense began their campaign with an impressive run, winning 10 of their first 11 games across all competitions. This strong start has positioned them well within the top four, accruing 18 points from 10 matches.
Their defence has been particularly noteworthy, conceding just seven goals in these fixtures. However, their recent form shows signs of wavering, with four consecutive league games without a clean sheet. Despite drawing their last two games against top contenders Flamengo and Botafogo, Athletico PR remain in a solid position to challenge for the top spots under the guidance of Cuca.
Corinthians, on the other hand, are in dire straits. Antonio Oliveira’s side have only managed seven points from their first 10 matches, with a solitary win against bottom-placed Fluminense. The lack of goals is a significant concern, with Corinthians scoring just seven times in the league, failing to find the net in seven games. Their defensive record, however, is relatively decent with 11 goals conceded, but the lack of attacking threat has placed them in a precarious position, third from the bottom in the standings.
Expected Lineups and Tactical Setup
Athletico Paranaense are expected to line up with Linck in goal, supported by a back four of Godoy, Rocha, Heleno, and Esquivel. The midfield will likely feature Erick and Fernandinho, with Nikao, Christian, and Cuello providing creativity behind striker Mastriani. Mastriani has been in fine form, netting three goals in his last three appearances, bringing his tally to nine for the season.
Corinthians are expected to field Donelli in goal, with Franca, Caca, Henrique, and Hugo forming the defensive line. Bidon and Raniele will anchor the midfield, while Garro, Coronado, and Wesley support Pedro Raul in attack. Raul is expected to lead the line in the absence of Yuri Alberto, who is serving a suspension.
Key Battles and Tactical Insights
The midfield battle will be crucial in this encounter, with Athletico’s Erick and Fernandinho up against Corinthians’ Bidon and Raniele. Fernandinho’s experience and ball-winning ability could provide Athletico with the upper hand in controlling the tempo of the game. Additionally, the creativity of Nikao and Cuello will be vital in breaking down Corinthians’ defence, which has been relatively solid despite their overall poor form.
In defence, Athletico’s Rocha and Heleno will need to be wary of the physical presence of Pedro Raul, who will be looking to exploit any lapses in concentration. The absence of Yuri Alberto could make Corinthians’ attack less dynamic, but Wesley’s pace and Garro’s playmaking abilities cannot be underestimated.
Gameplay Predictions
Given the recent performances and tactical setups, Athletico Paranaense are expected to dominate possession and create more scoring opportunities. Their average possession of 48.9% and 15.7 total shots per game indicate a proactive approach, which should continue against a struggling Corinthians side. Athletico’s ability to generate 4.9 shots on target per game and their solid defence, conceding just 0.7 goals per game, make them favourites to control the match.
Corinthians, with their 47.9% possession and 14.6 total shots per game, will likely adopt a more conservative approach, looking to exploit counter-attacks and set-pieces. Their defensive stability, despite conceding 1.1 goals per game, will be tested against Athletico’s attacking prowess.
Areas of Improvement
For Athletico Paranaense, maintaining concentration in the final minutes will be crucial, as evidenced by their recent draw with Botafogo, where they conceded a last-minute equaliser. Additionally, converting more of their big chances, currently at 1.9 per game, will be essential to ensure they capitalise on their dominance.
Corinthians need to address their attacking woes urgently. Increasing their shot accuracy and creating more high-quality chances will be key. Oliveira must find a way to inspire his forwards, especially in the absence of their key player Yuri Alberto.
Managerial Analysis
Cuca, leading Athletico Paranaense, has managed to instil a resilient defensive structure in his team, but his side’s recent inability to keep clean sheets might concern him. His tactical acumen and experience will be crucial in navigating through this slight dip in form.
Antonio Oliveira of Corinthians, on the other hand, faces a more challenging task. His side’s lack of goals and consistent defensive lapses have put him under pressure. While his tenure at Cuiaba showcased his potential, replicating that success at Corinthians has proven difficult. Criticism of Oliveira’s failure to adapt his tactics to the squad’s strengths has grown, and a significant improvement is required to steer Corinthians away from relegation danger.
Predictions
Best Bet: Athletico Paranaense to Win Athletico Paranaense’s home form has been formidable, winning six of their last ten home matches. Their defensive solidity and attacking options, particularly with Mastriani in form, give them the edge. Corinthians’ inability to score consistently makes it likely that Athletico PR will secure a win.
Correct Score Prediction: Athletico Paranaense 2-0 Corinthians Considering Athletico PR’s solid defence and Corinthians’ lack of goals, a 2-0 victory for the home side seems plausible. Athletico have the quality to break down Corinthians’ defence and should be able to keep a clean sheet against a toothless attack.
Goalscorer Prediction: Gonzalo Mastriani to Score Mastriani has been in excellent form, scoring three goals in his last three matches. Given his current streak and pivotal role in Athletico’s attack, he is likely to find the net against a struggling Corinthians defence.
Corner Prediction: Athletico Paranaense to Have More Corners Athletico PR average 5.5 corners per game compared to Corinthians’ 5.7. However, given Athletico’s expected dominance in possession and attacking play, they are likely to earn more corners, potentially around 6-7, while limiting Corinthians to fewer opportunities.
Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Target for Athletico Paranaense Over 5.5 Athletico PR average 4.9 shots on target per game. Given Corinthians’ defensive vulnerabilities and Athletico’s attacking intent, betting on Athletico to have over 5.5 shots on target offers good value.
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