bet365
BetMGM
William Hill
Betfred
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
Can Sevilla find their rhythm at the Pizjuán against a resilient Alavés side? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Sevilla hold a formidable home record against Alaves, remaining unbeaten in 10 of their last 11 league meetings at the Pizjuan. With Alaves struggling on the road with only two away wins all season and scoring just 0.87 goals per game, the hosts are favoured to edge this tight contest.
Read Rationale ▾
Alaves have seen four consecutive away draws at half-time, suggesting a cagey affair. Given their low offensive output and Sevilla’s missing attacking depth due to Romero’s suspension, a single-goal victory for the hosts is plausible. Alaves conceded only 29 goals, indicating they won’t be easily broken down.
Readers’ Tip
Vote your pick — quick & anonymous
Terms & Conditions (tap to view)
Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán under the lights. A 17:30 kick-off. Two teams locked together on points and record, both glancing over their shoulder as the table tightens.
Sevilla vs Alaves — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on our match analysis.
Sevilla’s historical home dominance against Alavés, remaining unbeaten in 10 of 11, underpins their status as favourites in the 1X2 market.
Alavés average only 0.87 goals per game, suggesting a low-scoring affair where Under 2.5 goals carries a high probability.
With Alavés drawing their last four away halves, the 1-1 stalemate and 1-0 home win are statistically prominent outcomes.
Alavés have committed 427 fouls this season, reflecting their disruptive tactical plan which frequently halts opposition possession.
Active
Match Preview
Sevilla sit 13th on 25 points, only three points clear of the relegation zone, and the mood is edgy after a run that’s produced one win in eight across all competitions. Even the latest 1-1 draw with Girona felt more like a pause than a reset.
Alavés arrive 14th, also on 25, bringing their own contradictions: enough grit to stay in the fight, but away form that keeps dragging them back. Add the reverse fixture — a 1-0 Alavés win earlier this season — and Saturday has the look of a game that can swing fast.
Scoring Reliability: Total League Goals
A comparison of total attacking output across 23 La Liga matches this season.
Sevilla have averaged over 1.3 goals per game, showing greater offensive consistency than their opponents.
Alavés have managed just 20 goals in 23 games, often struggling to find the net in tight away fixtures.
Defensive Stability: Total Clean Sheets
Visualising defensive organisation and the frequency of shutouts this season.
Despite their possession, keeping opponents scoreless has been a persistent issue at the Pizjuán.
Alavés rely on a solid defensive structure, recording nearly double the shutouts of Sevilla.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Sevilla absences
- Joan Jordán Moreno (unknown injury)
- Isaac Romero Bernal (suspended)
Alavés absences
- J. Martínez Gauna (calf muscle tear, out until 16.03.2026)
- M. do Nascimento Teixeira (scaphoid fracture)
Sevilla probable XI
Vlachodimos; Azpilicueta, Gudelj, Salas; J Sanchez, Agoume, Mendy, Suazo; Fernandez; Maupay, Adams
Alavés probable XI
Sivera; Tenaglia, Garces, Pacheco, Parada; Calebe, Blanco, Ibanez, Alena; Martinez, Boye
Tactical Analysis
- Sevilla losing Isaac Romero narrows their options higher up — and puts more weight on Akor Adams (Sevilla’s top league scorer with 6).
- Alavés missing defenders reduces depth at the back, and that matters in a game where aerial contests and second balls can decide territory.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (La Liga) | Sevilla | Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th | 14th |
| Record (W-D-L) | 7-4-12 | 7-4-12 |
| Goals scored | 30 | 20 |
| Goals conceded | 38 | 29 |
| Shots per game | 11.7 | 11.6 |
| Possession | 54.8% | 49.9% |
| Pass accuracy | 82.4% | 80.6% |
| Aerials won | 15.0 | 16.5 |
| Yellow cards (total) | 76 | 61 |
| Fouls (total) | 389 | 427 |
| Clean sheets (total) | 4 | 7 |
Strategic Outlook
Sevilla’s plan: width, possession, and a right-sided edge
Sevilla lean into possession football, playing with width and often attacking down the right. The pass accuracy (82.4%) backs up the idea: they want control, then a quick switch to create a shooting lane.
The problem is what happens when control breaks. Sevilla are strong on the counter themselves, but they’re also weak defending counter-attacks and very weak avoiding fouling in dangerous areas. That mix can turn a comfortable spell into a sudden emergency.
Expect Sevilla to try to pin Alavés back early, push play wide, then feed runners around Peque Fernández behind the forwards. The finishing burden sits with Akor Adams and Neal Maupay, and the key question is whether Sevilla’s shot volume becomes clean chances — or just noise.
Alavés’ plan: right-side thrust, long shots, and set-piece threat
Alavés also like the right side and play with width, but the feel is different: they’re happy to take long shots, fight for second balls, and win territory. Their strengths include shooting from direct free kicks and aerial duels, and their numbers show they don’t mind a scrap — 427 fouls and 513 tackles across their games.
Up front, Lucas Boyé (5 goals) and Toni Martínez (4 goals, 2 assists) can make a nuisance of themselves even when chances are limited. If Alavés can land early pressure and turn the match into a series of broken phases, that suits them.
But there’s a catch: they’re weak at keeping possession and weak at finishing scoring chances. So if they fall behind, chasing the game can become messy fast.
Key Zones & Game-State Scenarios
This fixture has a tug-of-war feel. Sevilla want to dictate. Alavés want to disrupt. The most dangerous moments might not be long spells of passing, but the two or three seconds after the ball turns over.
Sevilla’s own tendencies create risk: they’re very weak avoiding offside, and they’re vulnerable to moments of impatience — the sort of rushed pass that invites a counter. Alavés, meanwhile, are also very weak avoiding fouling in dangerous areas, so their defensive aggression can hand Sevilla set-piece chances in prime shooting and crossing zones.
There’s also a psychological edge in the recent meetings: Sevilla lost the reverse fixture 1-0, and across the last six head-to-head clashes, Sevilla have been beaten four times (67%). Yet at the same time, Sevilla haven’t been beaten in 10 of their last 11 home La Liga clashes with Alavés. That’s a cocktail: confidence and doubt, both available, depending on the first big moment.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces and cheap fouls: Both sides struggle to avoid fouling in dangerous areas, and Alavés carry a clear strength in direct free kicks. One rash challenge can flip the mood instantly.
- Aerial duels and second balls: Alavés win 16.5 aerials per game compared to Sevilla’s 15, and they’ve got forwards who compete hard. If Sevilla don’t secure the second phase, their possession becomes pointless.
- Half-time rhythm: Alavés have seen their last four away La Liga matches level at half-time. If it’s tight after 45, the tension ramps up — and the game can tilt toward set pieces and mistakes.
- Sevilla’s finishing responsibility: With Isaac Romero suspended, the spotlight intensifies on Akor Adams (6 league goals) and who supplies him. If Sevilla dominate the ball but don’t land punches, frustration arrives quickly.
What Could Go Wrong?
For Sevilla, it’s the familiar pattern: plenty of control, then one transition where they’re stretched, forced into a desperate foul, or caught by an offside-heavy attack that breaks their rhythm. For Alavés, it’s the opposite: defending too deep, giving Sevilla repeated entries into wide areas, then conceding the kind of set-piece or second-ball goal that makes their low-scoring profile feel like a straightjacket.
Quick Hits
- Identical seasons, identical pressure: Both Sevilla and Alavés have seven wins, four draws and 12 defeats after 23 league games, tied on 25 points in 13th and 14th.
- Sevilla’s momentum problem: Sevilla have managed just one win in their last eight matches in all competitions, and that’s why this one feels like a fork-in-the-road fixture.
- Alavés travel hangover: Alavés have only two wins from 11 away La Liga matches this season, and they’re scoring 0.87 goals per league game overall — slim margins, every week.
📊 Strategic Market Analysis
Match Result (1X2)
The most straightforward market where you predict either a Home Win, Draw, or Away Win. Pros: High liquidity and clear outcomes. Cons: Highly sensitive to sudden match events like red cards.
Correct Score
A high-volatility market requiring the exact final scoreline. Pros: Significant returns for small stakes. Cons: Extremely low probability; one late goal can invalidate the entire selection.
For those seeking alternatives, Double Chance (Sevilla or Draw) offers a safety net for cautious approaches, though at lower prices. Conversely, To Win to Nil represents a higher-risk strategy for those confident in a defensive masterclass.
🎯 Rationale: Pick 1 — Sevilla to Win
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- Sevilla hold a dominant home record, avoiding defeat in 10 of their last 11 home league clashes against Alavés.
- Alavés struggle significantly on their travels, securing only two victories from 11 away fixtures this term.
- The hosts maintain superior ball control with 54.8% average possession and a high pass accuracy of 82.4%.
Sevilla enter this fixture with a clear historical advantage at Estadio Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán. Despite their recent inconsistent form, the underlying metrics suggest they have the creative capacity to break down a defensive Alavés side. With 30 goals scored this season compared to Alavés’ 20, the hosts possess the necessary offensive firepower, particularly through top scorer Akor Adams, to capitalise on home comforts. Alavés’ away record is a primary concern for the visitors; their inability to dictate games away from home often leaves them vulnerable to sustained pressure.
Risk Factor: Sevilla’s tendency to concede (38 goals this season) and Alavés’ strength in direct free kicks could disrupt the hosts’ rhythm.
🎯 Rationale: Pick 2 — Sevilla 1-0 Alaves
This exact scoreline aligns with the statistical profiles of both clubs. Alavés are a disciplined unit defensively, conceding only 29 goals in 23 matches, which suggests they rarely collapse. However, their blunt attacking edge—averaging less than a goal per game—makes a high-scoring comeback unlikely if they fall behind. Sevilla, missing the suspended Isaac Romero, lose a vital component of their offensive variety, potentially leading to a more functional, narrow victory. The fact that Alavés have been level at half-time in their last four away matches indicates a pattern of cagey, low-scoring starts that often settle into single-goal margins.
Risk Factor: A clinical set-piece or a defensive error leading to an early opener for either side could force the game to open up prematurely.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Averaging 54.8% possession with an 82.4% pass accuracy, primarily attacking through the right flank.
Weak at keeping possession and finishing, often inviting pressure by conceding the ball in defensive zones.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
⊕ What is a Match Result bet?
A Match Result bet involves picking which team will win or if the game will end in a draw. You are simply choosing one of three outcomes: 1 (Home Win), X (Draw), or 2 (Away Win) for the full 90 minutes.
⊕ How does the Correct Score market work?
In this market, you must predict the exact final score of the match. Because it is much harder to get the precise score right than just the winner, the prices offered are usually much higher.
⊕ Why is Sevilla’s home record significant for this game?
Sevilla are unbeaten in 10 of their last 11 home league games against Alavés. This long-term dominance at the Pizjuán provides a mental advantage and suggests they know how to navigate this specific match-up.
⊕ Who is the main goal threat for Sevilla?
Akor Adams is the key man for the hosts, having scored 6 league goals this season. With Isaac Romero suspended, the responsibility for finishing Sevilla’s chances falls largely on his shoulders.
⊕ How does Alavés’ away form impact the predictions?
Alavés have only won twice in 11 away league games this season. Their low scoring rate on the road (0.87 goals per game) supports the prediction of a narrow Sevilla win or a low-scoring match.
⊕ What are the tactical strengths of Alavés?
Alavés are effective in aerial duels, winning 16.5 per game, and are dangerous from direct free kicks. They also rely on a high tackle volume to disrupt opposition play.
⊕ What is the significance of the “Half Time Draw” stat for Alavés?
Alavés have been level at the break in their last four away league games. This suggests they start cautiously and keep matches tight, increasing the likelihood of a low-scoring final result.
⊕ Can I bet on a draw in this match?
Yes, both teams have identical records of four draws this season. Given Alavés’ defensive organisation and Sevilla’s recent run of one win in eight, the draw remains a statistical possibility.
18+ | GambleAware | T&Cs apply. Please gamble responsibly: set a budget, use deposit limits, and stop when it’s not fun anymore. Last Odds Update: Feb 13, 14:20 GMT. For more information, view our Editorial Policy.
