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Motherwell vs Dundee Predictions Motherwell step into Saturday’s Scottish Premiership meeting with Dundee looking to keep a long league unbeaten run intact, and the table says they’ve earned the right to feel confident about where they’re at. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Motherwell are in superior form, entering this match on a nine-game unbeaten run in the Premiership and sitting 4th in the table. Their home form is anchored by a defense that has kept five clean sheets in eight matches at Fir Park. Conversely, Dundee are winless in nine away games and have the highest number of defeats in the league (10). Given Dundee concede an average of 1.82 goals per match while scoring just 0.44 on the road, the hosts are well-positioned to secure three points.
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This scoreline reflects Motherwell’s defensive solidity at home, where they concede only 0.63 goals per game. Dundee’s struggles in front of goal away from home—averaging less than half a goal per match—suggest they will find it difficult to breach the hosts' backline. A 2-0 result is consistent with Motherwell's ability to maintain control and Dundee's season-long trend of conceding nearly two goals per game.
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Motherwell vs Dundee Predictions and Best Bets
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- Motherwell’s defensive base has been central to their rise: they concede 0.88 goals per match, keep clean sheets in 47% of league games, and have five clean sheets in eight at home.
- Dundee’s away struggle is stark in the season split: nine away matches with zero wins, only four goals scored, and 17 conceded, which shapes how cautious and transition-focused they may need to be.
- The chance-creation gap shows up in volume and xG: Motherwell take 12 shots per match and average 1.40 xG for, while Dundee take eight shots per match with 0.93 xG for, suggesting different paths to goal.
Match Tempo: Average Total Goals per League Game
The season-long match-goals averages hint at how open games tend to feel for each side across the Scottish Premiership campaign.
Their matches average 2.35 goals in total, suggesting a steadier tempo where small swings can decide long spells of control.
Dundee games sit at 2.71 total goals on average, reflecting scorelines that can swing quickly when defensive moments go wrong.
Defensive Stability: Clean Sheets Rate
A clean-sheet rate gives a simple view of how often a side gets through a league match without conceding.
Nearly half of their league games end with a clean sheet, which supports a game plan built on patience and control.
A 12% clean-sheet rate points to how hard it has been to protect leads or keep the scoreboard quiet for 90 minutes.
Chance Pressure: Shots per League Match
Shot volume is a quick indicator of how often a side turns possession into attempts, even before you get into shot quality.
Averaging 12 shots per match suggests sustained pressure, especially at home where their shot count rises to 13.38.
Dundee’s eight shots per match underlines why transitions and efficiency can matter when the volume of attempts is lower.
Can Motherwell’s control and unbeaten run finally squeeze Dundee’s season into another difficult afternoon?
That gap shows up in the recent sequences too. Motherwell are unbeaten in their last nine league fixtures, while Dundee have managed just one win in their last eight matches. It doesn’t guarantee anything on the day, but it does set the tone: one side has built a habit of avoiding defeat, the other has spent much of the campaign trying to stop the bleeding.
The calendar adds its own edge. This one lands on Saturday 20 December at 15:00, with Motherwell at home. For Dundee, it’s a chance to turn a difficult run into a statement. For Motherwell, it’s the sort of fixture that can either keep momentum humming or remind you that the Premiership has a nasty habit of punishing any hint of complacency.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Motherwell’s possible starting XI is listed as: Ward; O’Donnell, McGinn, Gordon, Koutroumbis; Fadinger, Watt; Said, Just, Slattery; Stamatelopoulos.
Read that one way and it hints at a back four in front of Ward, a double pivot with Lukas Fadinger and Watt, and a line of three — Ibrahim Sa’id, Elijah Henry Just and Callum Slattery — supporting Apostolos Stamatelopoulos. If that’s the balance they go with, it suggests Motherwell want both control (two central midfielders behind the ball) and enough runners and creators to keep feeding a recognised focal point.
Dundee’s possible XI is: McCracken; Samuels, Graham, Koumetio, Wright; Congreve, Digby, Dhanda, Hamilton, Yogane; Murray.
That grouping looks like it could settle into a back four with Imari Narain Samuels and Drey Wright as the full-backs, a central midfield mix featuring Cameron Congreve and Paul Digby, and a band of support — Yan Dhanda, Ethan Hamilton and Tony Yogane — around Simon Murray. The important bit isn’t the chalkboard; it’s what the personnel implies. Dundee have plenty of bodies that can make a midfield line feel crowded, which can be a sensible way to stay in games when results have been thin.
There’s also a contrast in season profiles baked into these selections. Motherwell’s list contains several of their key contributors from the campaign: Maswanhise (eight league goals) is their top scorer overall, and Stamatelopoulos has five; Emmanuel has four and Just has three. Even if not all of those names are in the possible XI here, it underlines that Motherwell have had multiple routes to goals rather than living and dying by one outlet.
For Dundee, the listed top scorers include Clark Robertson (four), Ryan Astley (two), Finlay Robertson (one), Callum Jones (one), Drey Wright (one) and Simon Murray (one), while Congreve leads their assists with five and Yogane has two. That points to a side where the creation has often come from Congreve, and the goals have been spread — not necessarily plentiful, but shared around.
How the Match Could Be Played
Start with the most obvious tactical tension: Motherwell’s tendency to see more of the ball against Dundee’s season-long profile of operating with less of it. Motherwell’s average possession is 60%, Dundee’s is 38%. If those rhythms repeat, the game could quickly settle into a familiar pattern: Motherwell circulating play, Dundee picking moments to jump and moments to sit.
For Motherwell, the likely midfield pairing of Fadinger and Watt is a big clue. With two central midfielders behind the attacking three, they can build patiently, keep rest-defence in place, and still allow Slattery, Just and Sa’id to find pockets between lines. If Slattery is the central connector, his job could be to keep receiving on the turn and sliding passes into Stamatelopoulos early, before Dundee’s midfield line gets set.
The wide areas feel key too. With O’Donnell and Koutroumbis listed as full-backs, Motherwell can create overloads by pushing a full-back on and letting a winger or wide attacker come inside. That matters against a Dundee side whose possible line-up includes a lot of midfielders; the risk of being “outnumbered” centrally can be countered by stretching the pitch and forcing choices. Do Dundee’s wide players track runners all the way? Or do the full-backs step out and open spaces in behind?
Dundee’s route in looks more transition-led, especially away from home where their record is stark: nine away matches, zero wins, three draws and six losses, with just four goals scored and 17 conceded. That doesn’t mean they can’t attack; it means game states have often gone against them, and they’ve struggled to put away enough moments on the road. If they want this to stay tidy, they may need smart distances between their lines and quick, direct breaks when the ball turns over.
If Murray starts as the highest player, his support becomes crucial. Dhanda, Hamilton and Yogane (all in the possible XI) could be the ones asked to arrive quickly around the first ball — either to combine, or to draw fouls and slow Motherwell’s momentum. Dundee’s total shots per match sits at eight, compared to Motherwell’s 12, so the shape of their attacks may lean towards fewer, clearer moments rather than waves of pressure.
Set-piece and penalty-box discipline could be a quiet subplot. Motherwell have won six penalties in 17 matches, while Dundee have conceded three penalties in 17. That doesn’t tell you what will happen on Saturday, but it does hint at how Motherwell can turn territory into decisive moments: sustained pressure, repeated entries, and forcing defenders into decisions under stress.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Motherwell’s league position is backed by a defensive base that’s been hard to crack. They concede 0.88 goals per match and keep clean sheets in 47% of league games, with five clean sheets in eight at home. That matters for how the match could breathe: if Motherwell can protect their own goal without overcommitting, they can afford to be patient in possession rather than turning it into a frantic shootout.
Dundee’s problem has been the opposite. They concede 1.82 per match, and they’ve kept just two clean sheets in 17. The timing is brutal too: they concede a goal every 49 minutes on average. If Motherwell can keep Dundee pinned in their own half for long spells, the pressure doesn’t have to be spectacular to become telling — it just has to be repeated.
The expected-goals picture points in the same direction. Motherwell average 1.40 xG for and 1.22 xG against per match, while Dundee sit at 0.93 xG for and 1.84 xG against. Translate that into match feel and you get a simple idea: Motherwell tend to generate more and allow less, Dundee tend to generate less and allow more. It doesn’t decide the scoreline, but it supports the notion that Motherwell’s likely “control-first” approach can still carry threat.
There’s also an interesting finishing-and-volume contrast. Motherwell take 12 shots per match with 3.94 on target, and their shot conversion rate is 12%. Dundee take eight shots per match with 2.65 on target, with an 11% conversion rate. The conversion rates aren’t wildly different, so the swing factor becomes volume and territory. If Motherwell can sustain 12-shot territory and Dundee stay around eight, the balance of chances can tilt even without a dramatic difference in finishing.
Finally, the recent results listed for Motherwell underline why their unbeaten run has felt so stubborn. They’ve had multiple 0–0 draws in that sequence (including against Dundee United, Falkirk and Hearts), and they’ve mixed that with decisive home wins like 3–0 against Livingston and 2–0 against Hibernian. That blend suggests a side comfortable winning ugly and winning clean.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first big moment may be whether Dundee can survive Motherwell’s early territorial spell without surrendering cheap transitions. Motherwell’s home numbers — 1.63 goals scored per match and 0.63 conceded — suggest that once they settle into their home rhythm, they can squeeze games. Dundee’s away scoring rate of 0.44 per match makes the opening phase even more important for them: if they fall behind, they’re asking a lot of an attack that has found away goals hard to come by.
The second moment is the battle for the pockets around the edge of the box. If Slattery and Just can receive between Dundee’s midfield and defence, Motherwell’s possession can turn from circulation into incision. Dundee’s likely response is to keep distances tight, but that can come at a cost: deeper defending invites more entries, and Motherwell have already shown they can turn sustained pressure into high-leverage incidents, including penalties.
A third moment sits with Congreve’s influence. Dundee’s assist table has him on five, which is a standout figure in their squad. If Dundee are going to create enough chances to make this uncomfortable, they’ll likely need Congreve involved in the sequences that end with Murray getting a look at goal — especially because Dundee’s overall scoring rate is 0.88 per match, and Motherwell’s clean-sheet rate is strong.
Then there’s the emotional temperature. Motherwell’s discipline story includes Elliot Ward as their most booked player with five cards, while Dundee’s Ethan Hamilton has four. That doesn’t automatically translate into a fiery afternoon, but it does hint at where the bite and edge could come from — midfield duels, second balls, and the kind of stoppages that can interrupt a possession team’s flow or help an under-pressure side reset.
What could go wrong with this read? Fine margins, mostly. Motherwell’s unbeaten run contains several low-scoring draws, which is another way of saying that control doesn’t always guarantee a breakthrough. Dundee have also drawn 1–1 with Motherwell earlier in the season, and if they can keep the game close into the later stages, one moment — a set-piece, a penalty-box scramble, a single clean counter — can flip the story.
Best Bet for Motherwell vs Dundee
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Motherwell to win
Rationale
The primary justification for selecting a Motherwell victory lies in the stark contrast between the two sides’ defensive stability and away form. Motherwell enter this fixture in fourth place, underpinned by a remarkably disciplined defensive unit that has conceded just 15 goals in 17 matches (0.88 per game). Their efficiency at Fir Park is particularly noteworthy; they have secured five clean sheets in eight home league fixtures, contributing to a season-long clean sheet rate of 47%. This defensive resolve has allowed them to maintain a nine-game unbeaten run in the league, demonstrating a level of consistency that their opponents currently lack.
Dundee, by comparison, sit 10th in the table and have struggled significantly on their travels. Their away record is particularly damaging, with zero wins from nine matches, alongside six losses and a goal difference of minus 13 (four scored, 17 conceded). Defensively, Dundee have been porous across the campaign, shipping 31 goals in 17 games—an average of 1.82 per match. They have managed only two clean sheets all season, and the data suggests they concede a goal every 49 minutes. When facing a Motherwell side that averages 1.63 goals per match at home and generates a superior 1.40 xG compared to Dundee’s 0.93 xG, the probability of the visitors keeping a clean sheet appears low.
Furthermore, Motherwell’s offensive threat is diversified. While Tawanda Maswanhise is unavailable due to international duty, the presence of Apostolos Stamatelopoulos (six league goals) and Elijah Just ensures they retain sufficient firepower to exploit a Dundee backline that allows a high volume of chances. Motherwell average 12 shots per game compared to Dundee’s eight, suggesting that territory and shot volume will likely belong to the hosts. Given that Dundee’s scoring rate away from home drops to just 0.44 goals per game, Motherwell’s ability to “win clean” or protect a narrow lead makes the home win the most logically supported outcome.
What could go wrong Motherwell have a high frequency of draws this season (nine in 17 matches), and their unbeaten run includes several 0–0 stalemates. If Dundee can sit deep and successfully nullify the pockets of space around the box, they could frustrate the hosts as they did in a 1–1 draw earlier this season. Additionally, any loss of concentration at a set-piece could allow Dundee’s Cameron Congreve—who has six assists this term—to create a goal against the run of play, potentially turning a dominant performance into a frustrating draw.
Correct score lean
Motherwell 2–0 Dundee
Rationale
This selection is heavily influenced by the convergence of Motherwell’s defensive excellence at home and Dundee’s lack of potency on the road. Motherwell have kept five clean sheets in eight games at Fir Park and concede less than a goal per game on average. Dundee’s away scoring record is dismal, failing to win any of their nine away fixtures and averaging just 0.44 goals per game. A 2–0 scoreline aligns with Motherwell’s recent home victories (such as their 2–0 win over Hibernian) and reflects their ability to control games without needing to overextend themselves offensively.
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