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Can Beau Greaves steal the show and silence the Ally Pally crowd on Friday night?
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The final evening of first-round action of the PDC World Darts Championship at Alexandra Palace promises a spectacle of high tension and heavy scoring. While the afternoon session sees Josh Rock looking to make short work of Gemma Hayter, the evening billing offers a far more combustible narrative.
Read on for the best bet for the PDC World Darts Championship and the analysis in addition to the best betting offers to take full advantage of.
Darts betting tips: PDC World Darts Championship Day Nine Best Bet
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Luke Littler enters this final as the standard-bearer for the sport. His unbeaten run at Alexandra Palace and his relentless 100+ averages make him the formidable favourite. While Van Veen’s run has been heroic, Littler’s proven ability to dominate this specific stage should see him successfully defend his title.
- Nathan Aspinall possesses a season 180s per leg ratio of 0.36.
- Beau Greaves holds a season 180s per leg ratio of 0.31.
- William O’Connor averages 94.09 for the 2025 season.
Aspinall vs Ilagan — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key angles using listed odds plus implied probabilities (from those odds) to frame the match narrative.
The outright pricing makes Aspinall the clear front-runner, while the shortest correct-score routes point to a fast start being a live storyline.
Probabilities shown are implied from the listed odds.
A quick look at the shortest set-score prices highlights where the market expects the match to land most often.
Probabilities shown are implied from the listed odds.
The totals line frames expectations around sustained scoring, while the 9-darter price reflects how rare the perfect leg still is on this stage.
Probabilities shown are implied from the listed odds.
These angles spotlight how the match could be shaped inside short best-of-five-set format moments: bursts of maximums and standout finishing routes.
Probabilities shown are implied from the listed odds.
The headline act is undoubtedly the clash between Daryl Gurney and the premier female player on the planet, Beau Greaves. With the tournament format dictating best-of-five sets for these opening encounters, the potential for drama is high, particularly given Gurney’s admission of past mental fragility on the big stage.
Power Scoring: 180s Per Leg (2025)
A simple way to frame “maximum” output: how often each player hits a 180 per leg across the 2025 season.
The numbers reflect a scorer who stays on treble 20 and keeps giving himself “maximum looks” in most legs.
A ratio above 0.30 is a strong benchmark for heavy 180 production across a full season.
Baseline Level: Seasonal Averages (2025)
Averages don’t tell the whole story, but they do show who is more likely to hold a steady standard across a match.
That kind of baseline tends to translate into more comfortable holds and fewer “scramble legs”.
In short-format sets, gaps like this can show up quickly if the higher scorer wins the key opening legs.
Context: Ally Pally Experience & 2025 Momentum
One number for venue conversion, one for season confidence — both help frame how the match could feel if the crowd gets involved.
Popularity isn’t the same as results here — converting support into set wins has historically been tough.
Multiple titles in a season usually reflects confidence under pressure — especially in tight legs and late-set moments.
Elsewhere in the 7pm session, Nathan Aspinall begins his campaign against Lourence Ilagan. The ‘Asp’ arrives with significant momentum, having captured three European Tour titles in 2025. His opponent, a popular figure often cheered on by the lively London crowd, has struggled to convert popularity into wins at this venue, claiming just one victory in nine previous visits.
Rounding out the evening is a meeting between William O’Connor and Krzysztof Kciuk, alongside Keane Barry taking on Australian qualifier Tim Pusey. The atmosphere will be electric, the beer will be flowing, and the oche is set for a night where maximums could dictate the headlines.
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Best Bet
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Beau Greaves & Nathan Aspinall Each At Least 1 180 In Every Set at 13/2
The evidence for this selection lies in the exceptional scoring frequency both Beau Greaves and Nathan Aspinall have demonstrated throughout the 2025 season. When breaking down the metrics, we find two players who do not just hit maximums occasionally; they attack the treble 20 bed with a consistency that rivals the very elite of the sport.
Looking first at Beau Greaves, the Doncaster ace has posted a 180s-per-leg ratio of 0.31 this season. To put that into perspective, a ratio above 0.30 is generally the benchmark for prolific maximum hitters on the main tour. Her capability to sustain this heavy scoring under pressure was illustrated perfectly during the Grand Slam of Darts, where she averaged over 100 in tight defeats to Michael van Gerwen and Gary Anderson. Furthermore, her victory over Luke Littler in the World Youth Championship semi-final saw her average 106, proving she possesses the “A-game” required to score heavily against top-tier opposition.
The dynamic of her match against Daryl Gurney also supports this wager. Gurney is a seasoned professional who scored heavily himself in his recent World Cup win, meaning Greaves will be forced to keep her foot on the gas. She cannot afford a “quiet” set if she intends to compete. With pundits predicting a tight affair—potentially going the full five sets—Greaves will have ample legs in each set to find her range. The expectation is that she will need to match Gurney’s scoring power dart-for-dart, and her seasonal metrics suggest she is more than capable of finding a maximum in each stanza.
On the other side of the bet, Nathan Aspinall’s numbers are even more compelling. The Stockport thrower boasts a seasonal 180s-per-leg ratio of 0.36. This is an elite figure, indicative of a player who finds the red bit roughly once every three legs. Aspinall’s form has been superb in 2025, reaching multiple finals and winning three titles on the European Tour. His confidence is sky-high, and unlike players who switch to the 19s when under pressure, Aspinall is a rhythmic scorer who stays on the 20s.
His opponent, Lourence Ilagan, is capable of pushing Aspinall, which is crucial for this bet. If Ilagan can pinch legs or even a set—as some observers predict—it extends the duration of the sets, giving Aspinall more visits to the board to land that required 180. Aspinall’s aggressive style means he rarely coasts; he tends to attack every leg, which secures the volume of throws needed to land a maximum in every set played.
What could go wrong? The primary risk with “in every set” markets is the “flash” set. If a player wins a set 3-0 in quick time—perhaps checking out finishes of 80-100 without needing to score heavy—they might only get nine or ten visits to the board. If the rhythm is disrupted or they switch to treble 19s for cover shots, the 180 count can stall. Additionally, while Greaves has immense talent, the Ally Pally stage is unique. If the crowd atmosphere affects her focus early on, a low-scoring opening set could scupper the bet immediately.
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