Pisa vs Fiorentina Predictions

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Pisa vs Fiorentina predictions for this Serie A. Pisa and Fiorentina, separated by three points, meet at Arena Garibaldi on Sunday for their first Serie A clash since 1991. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Serie A | Sep 28 2025 at 2:00 pm UK at Arena Garibaldi

Pisa vs Fiorentina Predictions

Can Fiorentina Finally Break Their Winless Run in a Fiery Tuscan Derby?

• Pisa struggle to finish chances
  Despite generating over 4 xG and creating nine big chances in Serie A, Pisa have only scored three goals, highlighting their wastefulness in attack.
• Fiorentina weak at the back but resilient on the road
  The Viola have conceded nearly seven xGA already, but away from Florence they’ve been tighter, giving up just one goal in two trips.
• High-pressure derby with history on the line
  This will be the first Serie A meeting between the clubs since 1991, with Pisa desperate to claim a famous result against their illustrious neighbours.

Best Bet for Pisa vs Fiorentina

There are derbies, and then there are Tuscan derbies – charged, noisy, and capable of producing more chaos than quality. Pisa and Fiorentina will serve one up on Sunday at Arena Garibaldi, and while the historical balance is firmly on the side of the Viola, both arrive in such ropey form that nothing can be taken for granted.

Pisa are back in Serie A after decades away, and it has been a brutal reintroduction to top-flight life. One point from four games, three straight defeats and a Coppa Italia exit to Torino make grim reading. Yet there was at least a glimmer of encouragement in Naples, where Pisa scored twice against the reigning champions before ultimately falling short. If they can replicate that fearless attacking intent at home, they could rattle a Fiorentina defence that has hardly looked watertight.

The Viola, for their part, are not exactly a picture of serenity either. Two points from four games is nowhere near acceptable for a side with their ambitions, and the pressure is already beginning to mount on Stefano Pioli. A home defeat to Como last week added fuel to the fire. If they cannot beat newly promoted Pisa, alarm bells in Florence will start ringing even louder.

So, both sides are desperate. Pisa to prove they belong, Fiorentina to save face. Expect a game dripping with nerves, littered with mistakes, and punctuated by moments of raw emotion – the kind of match where you half expect a red card and definitely expect the crowd to lose their voices.

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Best Bet for This Match

The Best Bet we are putting forward for this clash is Fiorentina to win by a one-goal margin. At bettingtips4you we pride ourselves on giving only a single prediction for each game. We do not believe in throwing a dozen tips at readers and hoping one sticks. Quality over quantity is our mantra, and it keeps us accountable because every selection is designed to be the strongest available. Here, that means siding with Fiorentina in a tight derby where small margins will make all the difference.

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Why Back This Prediction?

This is not about blind faith in Fiorentina’s superiority, because frankly, their start has been underwhelming. It is about Pisa’s defensive fragility and Fiorentina’s slightly greater experience in grinding out results when everything else looks messy. Pisa have conceded seven goals in their last three games, and even though they attacked Napoli bravely, they were still undone by lapses at the back.

Fiorentina may not be firing in attack – Moise Kean, Edin Dzeko, and Albert Gudmundsson have yet to hit full stride – but they possess far more options in forward areas than their hosts. At some point, their wastefulness has to correct itself, and facing a Pisa side still adjusting to Serie A is a good opportunity.

Moreover, Pisa’s home record is already troubling. They have lost both fixtures at Arena Garibaldi this season without scoring, a sign the pressure of playing in front of their own fans is weighing heavy. Fiorentina, conversely, have shown a touch more resilience away, drawing at Cagliari and Torino. Their defence isn’t impregnable, but it has held better under pressure than Pisa’s.

As BettingTips4You.com expert Luca Pratesi summed up:

“In derbies like these, emotion often overrides tactics, but the deciding factor is usually squad depth. Fiorentina simply have more tools, and even if it’s ugly, they should edge it.”

Taking all of this into account, a narrow Fiorentina win looks the most logical outcome. Pisa will fight, they may even score, but the visitors have enough to land their first Serie A victory of the campaign.

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Suggested Correct Score

The most plausible outcome here feels like Fiorentina 2-1 Pisa. Pisa have shown signs of life in attack but leak too many goals, while Fiorentina should just about have enough firepower to prevail.

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