Cycling betting tips: Tour de France stage one predictions, preview and best bets

The long-anticipated start of the 2025 Tour de France rolls out from the historic city of Lille, a northern French hub steeped in Flemish culture and medieval history. Read on to find a detailed preview and the best bet recommendation for this clash, and don’t forget to take advantage of the selected betting offers listed below to maximise your betting value.

Cycling betting tips: Tour de France stage one predictions

Will Power or Precision Decide the Opening Stage in Lille?

• Jonathan Milan is aiming for his first Tour de France stage win after taking the points jersey at the last two Giros
• Tim Merlier arrives with 10 victories already this season but hasn’t competed at the Tour since 2021
• Jasper Philipsen won a key stage against Merlier at the recent Tour of Belgium but has had a quieter season by his standards

Our Best Bet

As riders prepare to embark on a 21-stage battle across the country, Saturday’s opener looks destined to be a drag race between the fastest finishers in the peloton rather than a tactical masterclass for climbers or time-trial specialists.

After a trio of foreign Grand Départs, this year’s Tour begins on home soil. Yet the opening kilometres are anything but conventional. The roads around Lille, with their red-brick towns and gently rolling terrain, offer a nod to the spring Classics of nearby Belgium. Cobbled climbs like Mont Cassel and the proximity to Mont Noir may briefly evoke the punchy one-day races across the border, but make no mistake: this route is built for speed, not selectivity.

The structure of the stage almost guarantees a mass sprint. There are three mild categorised climbs scattered across the course, but none are sharp enough to dislodge the pure sprinters. As such, this becomes a rare chance for the fast men to claim the iconic yellow jersey – a feat not achieved on stage one since 2020. And with national pride and psychological edge up for grabs, the stakes could not be higher.

Among the many contenders, the likes of Tim Merlier and Jasper Philipsen are certain to draw attention. Merlier comes into the race with ten victories under his belt this season and is finally returning to Tour action after a four-year absence. Philipsen, meanwhile, is well supported by his Alpecin-Deceuninck team and will be guided into the final by none other than a Classics expert in Mathieu van der Poel. However, while both bring credentials, form and experience, there’s another name who stands out as a strong choice to upset the established order.

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Best Bet for Stage One: Jonathan Milan to Win Stage One

Here at BettingTips4You, we believe in precision over abundance. Rather than offering a confusing list of options, we focus on delivering one high-confidence selection per event. This approach ensures clarity for our readers and allows us to track results with full accountability. Our standout pick for today’s Tour de France opener is Jonathan Milan to take stage one.

Why Back Jonathan Milan Today?

Jonathan Milan’s qualities as a sprinter are no longer under the radar. Towering in stature and commanding in speed, the Italian is reminiscent of sprint greats in both physique and style. His performance this season has been reliably consistent, with impressive results that underline his credentials as one of the strongest finishers in the current peloton.

Unlike rivals such as Philipsen or Merlier, Milan is not just a flat-finish specialist – his power builds over long sprints, often turning heads in drag-race finales where others begin to fade. His back-to-back points jersey victories at the Giro d’Italia in 2023 and 2024 demonstrate not only his top-end speed but his stamina across multi-stage races. This Tour de France marks his debut, but Milan enters with genuine momentum and clear intent to leave his mark immediately.

He might not enjoy full team protection given Lidl–Trek’s broader ambitions for the overall standings, yet Milan has repeatedly proven he can thrive even without a fully committed train. His rivals, notably Merlier and Philipsen, may have more experienced leadouts, but that also makes them susceptible to chaotic finishes, where positioning can quickly unravel. In contrast, Milan tends to find his own way through traffic, using raw strength and clear decision-making to deliver results.

On a day when positioning, resilience and sheer power will decide the winner, Milan has all the attributes needed to seize what could be a once-in-a-career opportunity to don the yellow jersey.

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