Everton vs Southampton Predictions

Everton vs Southampton predictions for this Carabao Cup clash. The pressure is on both Sean Dyche and Russell Martin, so which of the teams respond to their weekend’s losses in the best way? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

EFL Cup | Third Round | Sep 17, 2024 at 7:45pm UK at Goodison Park

Everton vs Southampton Predictions

Will Everton’s Defence Hold or Will Southampton Capitalise on Toffees’ Vulnerabilities?

• Everton’s Attack Shows Promise Despite Poor Results Despite their league woes, Everton have scored three goals in their sole EFL Cup appearance this season. Their average of 16 shots per game and an impressive 61% possession across all competitions indicates they are creating plenty of opportunities but struggling to see games through due to defensive frailties.
• Southampton Struggle for Goals but Dominate Possession Southampton have averaged 62.5% possession in their Premier League matches this season, but their ability to turn this into goals has been poor. With just one goal in four league games, they’ve been unable to capitalise on their territorial dominance, although they average 12 shots per game, including 3.8 on target.
• Corners a Constant Theme for Both Sides Everton’s wide play has contributed to an average of eight corners per game in their EFL Cup campaign, while Southampton have also managed six per match in the Premier League. This pattern suggests set pieces could play a key role in this encounter, with both sides likely to continue racking up corners.

Best Bet

Both Everton and Southampton find themselves in desperate need of a victory as they prepare to clash in the EFL Cup third round at Goodison Park. Both clubs have suffered poor starts to the Premier League season, making this cup tie a much-needed opportunity for confidence-building. Everton, reeling from their worst start in 66 years, are winless in the league but have shown glimpses of promise, notably in their attack. Their recent matches, however, have been characterised by defensive collapses, which have cost them dearly.

Southampton, on the other hand, are struggling even more, particularly in front of goal. With just one goal in four Premier League matches, the Saints have been blunt in attack, and their defensive frailties have further complicated matters. Russell Martin’s side are yet to find their rhythm this season, and this fixture offers a respite from their league woes. While Southampton may have the recent upper hand at Goodison Park, both teams are looking to put disappointing starts behind them, making this an intriguing encounter where both will feel they have something to prove.

The first prediction for this match leans towards a draw, with both teams expected to find the back of the net. Given the circumstances and the current form of both clubs, this scenario seems the most plausible outcome. Everton have shown they can score, as seen in their recent games, but their defence has been porous, allowing opponents to claw back leads. Southampton, though struggling to score, will view Everton’s defensive vulnerabilities as an opportunity to capitalise.

Everton’s attack, led by Beto, Dwight McNeil, and Iliman Ndiaye, has been functioning well, with three goals already in the EFL Cup campaign. Their average of 16 shots per game and a respectable four on target demonstrate they have the firepower to trouble any defence. However, it’s their inability to hold onto leads that has been their undoing. The Toffees have conceded five goals in their last two league matches, both of which they initially led. Sean Dyche’s defensive approach has faltered, and the team has dropped 23 points from winning positions since last season. This fragility at the back makes it hard to back them for a clean sheet, even against a misfiring Southampton.

Southampton’s attacking woes, while prominent, may find some reprieve against an Everton side that looks vulnerable when under pressure. Although they have only managed one goal in four Premier League outings, Southampton’s players like Joe Aribo and Adam Armstrong will be eager to exploit the gaps Everton often leave in defence. Their possession stats, averaging 62.5%, indicate they can control games, even if they haven’t been clinical in finishing. It’s also worth noting that Southampton have managed an average of 3.8 shots on target per game, suggesting they aren’t far from turning their dominance into goals.

“Both teams have displayed vulnerabilities in defence, but Everton’s superior attacking form combined with Southampton’s desperation for a result makes a draw with both sides scoring the most probable outcome,” explains Herrin Kendrick, BettingTips4You.com expert. “Everton’s inability to hold leads and Southampton’s struggle in front of goal balance out the contest, making a draw highly likely.”

Additional Prediction

A strong secondary prediction would be the total number of corners, with over 10.5 corners seeming very plausible. Everton have averaged eight corners per game in the EFL Cup this season, while Southampton have averaged six corners in their Premier League matches. Both sides have been creating chances without converting them, leading to numerous corner situations.

Everton’s approach under Dyche has often involved utilising the flanks, with McNeil and Jesper Lindstrom capable of delivering dangerous crosses. This naturally results in corners when the opposition defence scrambles to clear the ball. With Southampton needing to press higher up the pitch to create chances, they too will generate corners as they probe Everton’s vulnerable back line.

Given that both teams will likely be making changes, the match could see an end-to-end dynamic where both sides are pressing for goals, leading to plenty of set-piece opportunities.

Correct Score Prediction: Everton 1-1 Southampton

Given the prediction of both teams scoring and the likelihood of a draw, a 1-1 scoreline emerges as a logical correct score prediction. Everton have struggled defensively, conceding three goals in each of their last two matches, but their attack has been reliable enough to score regularly. Meanwhile, Southampton’s misfiring attack is bound to improve, and Everton’s defensive frailties offer an ideal opportunity for them to find the net.

Everton’s goals in the EFL Cup have come from different sources, with Beto, McNeil, and Ndiaye all getting on the scoresheet. This variety in their attack makes it likely that they will be able to breach Southampton’s back line at least once. However, given their defensive record, it’s hard to back Everton to keep a clean sheet, particularly with Southampton’s need to score and improve their fortunes.

A 1-1 draw also fits well with the overall narrative of both teams making changes and prioritising the league, meaning this cup tie could be cagey, with neither side able to dominate fully. Southampton’s record of missing chances and Everton’s tendency to concede late makes a shared scoreline seem almost inevitable.

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