Bahia vs Corinthians predictions for this pre season clash. Bahia aim to bounce back in Brasileiro against Corinthians in gameweek 18 at Arena Fonte Nova on Sunday. Read on for our free match preview and betting tips.
Brasileiro | Jul 21, 2024 at 8pm UK at Arena Fonte Nova
Bahia vs Corinthians Predictions
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Can Bahia Extend Their Home Dominance Against Struggling Corinthians?
Key Stats
– Bahia have won eight of their last ten home matches in the league.
– Corinthians have failed to win any of their last nine away fixtures.
– Everaldo is Bahia’s top scorer with six goals this season.
As Bahia prepare to host Corinthians at Arena Fonte Nova, the excitement is palpable among fans and analysts alike. This upcoming clash in gameweek 18 of Brasileiro promises to be a compelling encounter, with both teams seeking critical points for very different reasons. Bahia, sitting comfortably in fifth place with 30 points, are looking to solidify their position in the top half of the table. In contrast, Corinthians are languishing in the relegation zone with just 15 points, desperate for a turnaround under new management.
Team Analysis: Bahia
Under the guidance of Rogerio Ceni, Bahia have demonstrated significant improvement this season. Their campaign so far has been marked by a solid offensive performance, reflected in their 27 goals, the second-highest tally in the league. However, their defensive line has been somewhat porous, conceding 21 goals, a figure that highlights the need for tighter defensive coordination.
Bahia’s home form has been particularly noteworthy, with the team securing seven consecutive victories at Arena Fonte Nova before their recent 2-1 setback against Cuiaba. This fortress-like home record has been a key factor in their ascent to the upper echelons of the league standings. The return of Everaldo from suspension is a significant boost, adding firepower to their already potent attack.
Team Analysis: Corinthians
On the other hand, Corinthians have endured a turbulent season, prompting a managerial change with Ramon Diaz stepping in. The new coach has already begun to make his mark, guiding the team to a spirited comeback victory over Criciuma. Despite this, Corinthians’ away form remains a major concern. They have managed to earn just two points from nine away matches, highlighting a severe lack of form on the road.
Defensively, Corinthians have been vulnerable, conceding 23 goals, and their attack has been lacklustre, with only 14 goals scored in 17 matches. The absence of key players like Maycon and Ruan Oliveira due to injuries has compounded their problems, and their current predicament in the relegation zone is a reflection of these struggles.
Expected Goals Averages
When analysing the expected goals (xG) averages, Bahia have a more promising outlook. Their xG figures reflect their attacking prowess, with an average of 1.6 goals per game. This indicates a high level of offensive efficiency, especially at home. Corinthians, meanwhile, have an xG average of 0.8 goals per game, underscoring their difficulties in finding the back of the net. This disparity in xG averages suggests that Bahia are more likely to dominate the attacking phases of the game.
Key Areas and Player Duels
The midfield battle will be crucial in determining the outcome of this match. Bahia’s midfield trio of Lucas, Alexandre, and Ribeiro will look to control possession and dictate the tempo, leveraging their passing accuracy and vision. For Corinthians, the defensive midfielders Garro and Santana will have their work cut out, needing to disrupt Bahia’s rhythm and launch counter-attacks.
Key player duels, such as Bahia’s Thaciano against Corinthians’ Caca, could prove decisive. Thaciano’s creative play and ability to find pockets of space will be a constant threat, while Caca’s defensive solidity will be vital for Corinthians to contain the home side’s attacks.
Gameplay and Strategies
Given their recent form and home advantage, Bahia are likely to adopt an attacking strategy, pressing high and looking to dominate possession. They will aim to exploit Corinthians’ defensive vulnerabilities with quick transitions and incisive passing. Corinthians, on the other hand, may opt for a more cautious approach, focusing on defensive solidity and aiming to hit Bahia on the counter-attack.
Critique of Corinthians’ Tactics and Management
Corinthians’ approach this season has been heavily criticised, and rightfully so. Their lack of creativity and poor defensive organisation have been glaring issues. The decision to part ways with Toni Oliveira was necessary, yet Ramon Diaz has a monumental task ahead. Diaz’s initial success notwithstanding, the fundamental problems within the squad remain. Their away record is abysmal, and the team’s inability to secure points on the road is a direct reflection of tactical shortcomings and poor player morale.
Strengths and Weaknesses
Bahia’s Strengths:
- Strong home form with a prolific attack led by Everaldo.
- Effective midfield control with high passing accuracy.
- Resilient under pressure, often bouncing back after setbacks.
Bahia’s Weaknesses:
- Defensive frailties, conceding too many goals.
- Reliance on key players for creativity and goal-scoring.
Corinthians’ Strengths:
- Potential for resilience and comeback under new management.
- Individual talent in players like Caca and Romero.
Corinthians’ Weaknesses:
- Managerial instability affecting team cohesion.
- Poor away form with significant defensive lapses.
- Lack of offensive creativity and finishing ability.
Predictions
Based on the analysis, several betting angles present themselves as particularly attractive.
Best Bet: Bahia to Win Given Bahia’s exceptional home form and Corinthians’ struggles on the road, a victory for Bahia seems the most likely outcome. The odds of 4/6 reflect Bahia’s strong chances, and their ability to score consistently at home further supports this prediction.
Correct Score Prediction: Bahia 3-1 Corinthians Considering Bahia’s attacking efficiency and Corinthians’ defensive vulnerabilities, a 3-1 scoreline is plausible. Bahia’s ability to score multiple goals at home, coupled with Corinthians’ tendency to concede, aligns with this prediction.
Goalscorer Prediction: Everaldo to Score Anytime Everaldo, returning from suspension, is poised to make a significant impact. As Bahia’s top scorer, his presence in the final third will be crucial, and he is likely to find the net against a leaky Corinthians defence.
First Team to Score: Bahia With their aggressive home approach and early goal-scoring tendencies, Bahia are favourites to open the scoring. Corinthians’ defensive record on the road further justifies this prediction.
Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Target Over 4.5 Bahia’s attacking statistics indicate a high number of shots on target per game. Betting on Bahia to have over 4.5 shots on target leverages their offensive momentum and Corinthians’ defensive frailties.
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