Poland vs Netherlands Predictions

Poland vs Netherlands predictions as these two sides open up their Euro 2024 campaigns. The Netherlands, scoring freely, expect a strong Group D start against Lewandowski-less Poland in Euro 2024. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

European Championship | Group Stage – Jun 16, 2024 at 2pm UK at Volksparkstadion

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Poland vs Netherlands Predictions

Dutch Delight in Euro 2024 Opener: Netherlands Set to Outclass Poland

Match Preview

The Netherlands are gearing up to launch their Euro 2024 campaign with a match against Poland, played on neutral ground in Germany. The Dutch are entering this tournament with high expectations after a series of strong performances in the build-up. Poland, on the other hand, have struggled to find consistency and will be without their star striker Robert Lewandowski, who is sidelined due to injury.

Team Analysis

Netherlands

Ronald Koeman’s squad has shown a flair for attacking football, evidenced by their impressive goal-scoring record in recent friendlies. The Dutch team, featuring stars like Cody Gakpo and Memphis Depay, managed three 4-0 wins in their last four matches, with their only blemish being a narrow 2-1 defeat to Germany. This potent attack will be a significant threat to any defence they face in the tournament.

Defensively, the Netherlands have also been solid, recording clean sheets in six of their last seven matches. Virgil van Dijk’s leadership at the back provides a robust foundation, complemented by the attacking prowess of wing-backs like Denzel Dumfries, who has a knack for scoring in major tournaments.

Poland

Poland’s path to Euro 2024 was less convincing. They managed to qualify through a play-off against Wales but have shown vulnerabilities, especially in the absence of Lewandowski. The Polish team has relied heavily on their talisman, and his injury leaves a significant void. Without Lewandowski and with other attacking options like Arkadiusz Milik also unavailable, Poland’s attacking threat diminishes considerably.

Despite these setbacks, Poland remains unbeaten in their last eight games. Napoli’s Piotr Zielinski emerges as their key player, capable of creating and scoring goals. The defensive setup, led by Jan Bednarek, will be tested against a high-flying Dutch attack.

Expected Lineups

Poland:

• Goalkeeper: Szczesny
• Defenders: Bednarek, Dawidowicz, Kiwior, Frankowski
• Midfielders: Slisz, Piotrowski, Zalewski, Zielinski, S Szymanski
• Forward: Piatek

Netherlands:

• Goalkeeper: Verbruggen
• Defenders: Dumfries, De Ligt, Van Dijk, Ake
• Midfielders: Reijnders, Veerman, Simons
• Forwards: Wijnaldum, Gakpo, Depay

The Netherlands will likely adopt a dynamic and attacking 4-3-3 formation, allowing their creative players to exploit spaces and create scoring opportunities. Poland might opt for a more cautious approach, focusing on defensive solidity and looking to counter-attack through Zielinski and Piatek.

Key Duels and Gameplay Analysis

Key Duels

1. Virgil van Dijk vs Krzysztof Piatek: Van Dijk’s commanding presence will be crucial in nullifying Poland’s main attacking outlet. Piatek will need to be at his sharpest to find any joy against the Dutch captain.
2. Denzel Dumfries vs Nicola Zalewski: Dumfries’ attacking runs from the right flank will pose a constant threat. Zalewski will have to balance his defensive duties while trying to provide width for Poland.

Gameplay Expectations

The Netherlands are expected to dominate possession, utilising their midfield strength to control the tempo of the game. With the creative talents of Simons and Veerman, the Dutch will aim to break down Poland’s defence through intricate passing and swift transitions. The width provided by Dumfries and Ake will be key in stretching Poland’s backline.

Poland, missing key attacking players, will likely focus on a compact defensive structure, aiming to hit the Netherlands on the break. Zielinski’s role in transitioning from defence to attack will be crucial, and set-pieces could offer Poland their best scoring opportunities.

Expected Goals (xG) Analysis

The Netherlands have averaged 2.1 goals per game in their qualification matches, with a strong xG reflecting their attacking prowess. In contrast, Poland’s 1.5 goals per game indicate a less prolific attack, which will be further weakened by Lewandowski’s absence. Defensively, the Dutch concede just 0.9 goals per game, showcasing their solidity, while Poland’s 1.1 goals conceded per game suggests vulnerabilities that the Dutch attackers can exploit.

Betting Angles and Trends

Based on recent performances and statistics, several betting angles emerge:

• Dutch to Win and Clean Sheet: With Poland’s weakened attack, the Netherlands’ strong defensive record, and their habit of winning to nil, this bet looks promising.
• Anytime Goalscorer: Cody Gakpo, who has been prolific for the Netherlands, is a strong candidate to score.
• Corners: The Dutch average 7.3 corners per game, indicating a high likelihood of winning the corner count.

Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive

Offensive and Defensive Strategies

Netherlands

The Dutch approach to their recent matches has been characterised by their high pressing and quick transitions from defence to attack. Ronald Koeman has implemented a fluid 4-3-3 formation that often morphs into a 3-4-3 when they are in possession. This setup allows their wing-backs, particularly Denzel Dumfries, to push high up the pitch, creating width and delivering crosses into the box.

Cody Gakpo and Memphis Depay spearhead the attack, supported by Xavi Simons, who has forced his way into the starting lineup due to his creative prowess and ability to exploit spaces between the lines. This trio has been instrumental in their recent high-scoring games, contributing to their impressive average of 2.1 goals per game. The Netherlands’ defence, marshalled by Virgil van Dijk, has been equally effective, conceding just 0.9 goals per game and maintaining clean sheets in six of their last seven matches. This solid defensive base allows the team to take risks going forward, knowing they have the stability to recover if possession is lost.

Poland

Poland, under Michal Probierz, have adopted a more cautious and pragmatic approach, particularly in the absence of their star striker Robert Lewandowski. They typically line up in a 4-

4-2-3-1 formation, which focuses on maintaining a compact defensive structure and relying on quick counter-attacks. The Polish defence, led by Jan Bednarek, aims to absorb pressure and break down the opposition’s play with physicality and well-timed tackles. Poland’s defensive statistics, such as their 13.6 tackles and 6.8 interceptions per game, highlight their emphasis on disrupting the opponent’s rhythm.

In attack, Poland rely heavily on Piotr Zielinski to create chances. With Lewandowski absent, Zielinski becomes the focal point of their offensive play, supported by Sebastian Szymanski and Nicola Zalewski. These players are tasked with linking the midfield and attack, providing service to Krzysztof Piatek, who will lead the line. Poland’s strategy often involves quick transitions and exploiting set-piece opportunities, evidenced by their 6.8 corners per game.

Key Player Performances

Netherlands

Cody Gakpo has been a standout performer for the Dutch, with his ability to find the net consistently. He scored in all three group matches at the last World Cup and has continued this form into the Euro 2024 qualifiers. Memphis Depay also plays a crucial role, not just in scoring but in creating opportunities for his teammates. Depay’s ability to shoot from distance and his prowess in set pieces add another dimension to the Dutch attack.

Virgil van Dijk’s leadership and defensive skills are pivotal. As the team’s anchor at the back, he ensures the defence remains organised and disciplined. Denzel Dumfries’ contributions from the wing-back position cannot be overstated. His forward runs and ability to score, as seen in previous major tournaments, make him a significant threat.

Poland

Piotr Zielinski is the creative heart of the Polish team. His vision and passing ability are crucial for unlocking defences and creating scoring opportunities. With Lewandowski out, Zielinski’s role becomes even more critical as he will be the primary playmaker.

Jan Bednarek is another key player for Poland, known for his defensive solidity. His tendency to accumulate yellow cards, however, indicates a propensity for aggressive tackles which could be a double-edged sword. Krzysztof Piatek’s role as the primary striker means he will bear the brunt of Poland’s goal-scoring responsibilities.

Impact of Management

Ronald Koeman’s return to the Netherlands has brought stability and a clear tactical vision. His preference for attacking football, combined with a solid defensive foundation, has revitalised the team. Koeman’s ability to adapt his tactics to the strengths of his players has been instrumental in the Netherlands’ recent success.

In contrast, Michal Probierz’s tenure with Poland has been more about managing the team’s limitations. His pragmatic approach, focusing on defensive organisation and counter-attacking, has been necessary given the absence of key players like Lewandowski. While this strategy has ensured Poland’s qualification, it has also exposed their vulnerability against stronger teams.

Expected Goals Analysis

The Netherlands boast a higher expected goals (xG) average, reflecting their prolific attacking performances. With an average of 2.1 goals per game in their qualifiers, their xG figures are supported by high shot volume and quality chances created. Poland, with an average of 1.5 goals per game, have a lower xG, indicative of their more conservative and less effective offensive strategy.

Comparison of Tactics and Performances

The Netherlands’ fluid and attacking 4-3-3 contrasts sharply with Poland’s more rigid 4-2-3-1. The Dutch system, which promotes high pressing and quick transitions, has yielded better results, as seen in their goal-scoring and defensive records. Poland’s reliance on a solid defensive setup and counter-attacks highlights their pragmatic approach but also their struggle to dominate games.

In terms of individual performances, Dutch players like Gakpo and Dumfries have shown consistency and impact, while Poland have had to rely heavily on Zielinski and Piatek, with mixed results. The BettingTips4You expert ratings for Dutch players are generally higher, reflecting their better overall performances.

Suggestions for Improvement

Netherlands

While the Dutch have been impressive, they need to ensure they do not become over-reliant on their attacking trio. Diversifying their attacking play and involving midfielders more in goal-scoring opportunities could make them even more formidable. Additionally, maintaining focus and discipline in defence against top-tier teams will be crucial.

Poland

Poland need to find alternative goal-scoring options in the absence of Lewandowski. Developing more cohesive attacking plays and improving their efficiency in front of goal will be vital. Defensively, while Bednarek’s aggressive style can be effective, it often leads to disciplinary issues. Probierz should focus on maintaining a balance between aggression and discipline to avoid unnecessary bookings.

Strengths and Weaknesses of the Managers

Ronald Koeman has brought a clear, attacking philosophy to the Netherlands, leveraging the strengths of his players. His ability to adapt and manage the team effectively is commendable. However, there are concerns about the team’s occasional lapses in concentration, as seen in their loss to Germany.

Michal Probierz’s pragmatic approach has ensured Poland’s qualification, but his heavy reliance on a defensive setup and counter-attacks may not be sustainable against stronger opposition. His inability to adapt and develop a more dynamic attacking strategy without Lewandowski could be a significant weakness.

Predictions

Best Bet: Netherlands to Win and Keep a Clean Sheet

The Netherlands have been in formidable form defensively, securing clean sheets in six of their last seven matches. This solidity at the back, combined with their attacking prowess, makes them heavy favourites against a weakened Polish side. Poland, without their talisman Robert Lewandowski, will struggle to find the back of the net.

The Dutch defence, marshalled by Virgil van Dijk, has been resolute, conceding just 0.9 goals per game in their qualifying campaign. Given Poland’s recent struggles in front of goal and their reliance on Lewandowski, the Netherlands winning without conceding appears to be a solid bet. This is further supported by Poland’s difficulty in scoring against stronger defences, as evidenced by their modest tally of 15 goals in 10 qualifying matches.

Correct Score: Netherlands 3-0 Poland

A 3-0 victory for the Netherlands seems likely, considering their recent high-scoring matches and Poland’s defensive vulnerabilities. The Dutch have scored 17 goals in their last eight qualifying matches, averaging over two goals per game. Their ability to dominate possession and create numerous chances, combined with Poland’s defensive inconsistencies, suggests a comprehensive win.

Poland have conceded 11 goals in their qualifying campaign, and without their key attackers, they will struggle to pose a significant threat. The Netherlands, with their attacking trio of Gakpo, Depay, and Simons, are expected to exploit these weaknesses and secure a comfortable 3-0 win.

Goalscorer: Cody Gakpo

Cody Gakpo has been a standout performer for the Netherlands, particularly in major tournaments. He scored in all three group matches at the last World Cup, highlighting his knack for rising to the occasion. Gakpo’s versatility and ability to find space make him a constant threat in the attacking third.

Against Poland, who are missing key defensive players and struggling with form, Gakpo is well-placed to continue his scoring streak. His BettingTips4You expert rating is consistently high, reflecting his impact on the game. Given the Dutch’s attacking style and Gakpo’s recent form, backing him to score anytime is a prudent choice.

Corners: Netherlands to Win the Corner Count

The Netherlands average 7.3 corners per game, indicative of their attacking approach and ability to sustain pressure. Poland, on the other hand, average 6.8 corners per game but are likely to adopt a more defensive posture against the Dutch. This difference in play styles suggests that the Netherlands will have more opportunities to win corners.

With the Dutch expected to dominate possession and attack frequently, they should easily surpass Poland in the corner count. The Dutch wing-backs, particularly Denzel Dumfries, play a significant role in creating these opportunities, driving forward and delivering crosses that often result in corners.

Shots on Target: Memphis Depay to Have 1 or More Shots on Target

Memphis Depay is central to the Netherlands’ attacking play, often taking on the role of the primary shooter. His ability to create and take shots from various positions on the field makes him a reliable bet for shots on target. Depay has averaged 6.5 shots on target per game during the qualifying matches, showcasing his consistent threat to opposing goalkeepers.

Against a Polish defence missing key players, Depay will likely find space to test the keeper. His technical skills and positioning will enable him to have at least one shot on target, making this a strong prediction.

Yellow Card: Jan Bednarek

Jan Bednarek has a history of collecting yellow cards, with 15 bookings for club and country this season. His aggressive style of defending and crucial role in Poland’s backline increase the likelihood of him receiving another yellow card. Bednarek will be up against a dynamic Dutch attack, where he will need to make crucial tackles and possibly commit fouls to stop players like Gakpo and Depay.

Given his disciplinary record and the pressure he will be under, backing Bednarek to receive a yellow card is a logical prediction. His BettingTips4You expert rating also reflects his combative nature and tendency to pick up bookings.

Assist: Xavi Simons

Xavi Simons, operating in an advanced midfield role, has been instrumental in creating chances for the Netherlands. His vision and passing ability make him a key playmaker, capable of delivering assists to the forwards. Simons’ partnership with attackers like Gakpo and Depay has been fruitful, and his performance in the qualifiers, with several assists, underscores his creative influence.

Poland’s defensive setup will likely focus on blocking direct goal threats, allowing Simons more space to operate and deliver key passes. His BettingTips4You expert rating highlights his contribution to the team’s offensive play, making him a strong candidate for providing an assist in this match.

Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Goal – Netherlands Over 15

The Netherlands’ attacking style results in a high number of shots per game, averaging 18.4 total shots in their qualifying matches. Against a Polish side expected to play defensively, the Dutch will dominate possession and create numerous shooting opportunities. Poland’s defensive record, conceding 11 goals in 10 qualifiers, suggests they are susceptible to allowing many shots.

The Dutch forwards and midfielders, including Depay, Gakpo, and Simons, will look to test the Polish goalkeeper frequently. Given their attacking depth and recent form, predicting the Netherlands to have over 15 total shots on goal is a well-supported bet. This aligns with their high average and Poland’s defensive vulnerabilities, making it a compelling market to explore.

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