Saint-Etienne vs Metz Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews in this playoff. Saint-Etienne and Metz meet in the Ligue 1 promotion/relegation playoff final’s first leg at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard on Thursday. Read on for our free predictions and tips.
Ligue 1 | 1st Leg – May 30, 2024 at 7.30pm UK at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard
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Saint-Etienne vs Metz Predictions
Ligue 1 Playoff Final: Saint-Etienne Aim to Capitalise on Home Advantage Against Struggling Metz
Key Stats
– Metz have conceded 30 first-half goals in 34 matches this season.
– Saint-Etienne have maintained 19 clean sheets in their campaign.
– Ibrahim Sissoko has netted 13 goals for Saint-Etienne this season.
As the tension mounts, Saint-Etienne and Metz are set to clash in the decisive playoff final, where the prize of Ligue 1 football next season awaits. The first leg of this crucial tie will take place at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, promising a fierce contest between two teams with everything to play for.
Match Preview
After narrowly missing out on automatic promotion, Saint-Etienne finished third in Ligue 2 and now find themselves in a two-legged showdown for a place in France’s top division. Their journey to this final saw them overcome Rodez AF with a convincing 2-0 victory, thanks to goals from Irvin Cardona and Nathanael Mbuku. This win has bolstered their confidence ahead of hosting Metz.
Metz, on the other hand, barely avoided automatic relegation from Ligue 1, finishing 16th due to a superior head-to-head record. Their end to the season was dismal, with four consecutive losses, including a 2-0 defeat to Paris Saint-Germain. Despite this poor form, they have a chance to retain their Ligue 1 status through the playoffs.
Team Analysis
Saint-Etienne
Saint-Etienne’s season has been marked by solid defensive performances and efficient attacking play. They scored 48 goals and conceded 31 in their Ligue 2 campaign, with a commendable home record, losing only five times and conceding just 14 goals at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard. Olivier Dall’Oglio’s side is known for their disciplined approach and tactical organisation.
The attack is led by Ibrahim Sissoko, who has scored 13 goals this season. Irvin Cardona and Nathanael Mbuku provide additional firepower, both contributing significantly in the final third. The midfield, anchored by Thomas Monconduit, offers a blend of defensive solidity and creative distribution.
Metz
Metz’s season has been tumultuous, with only 35 goals scored and a worrying 58 conceded. Their struggles were evident in their inability to control games, averaging just 35% possession, the lowest in Ligue 1. They will rely heavily on Georges Mikautadze, who has been their standout performer with 13 goals.
Defensively, Metz have been vulnerable, especially early in games, conceding 30 first-half goals in 34 matches. Their midfield, featuring Lamine Camara and Youssef Maziz, needs to be more cohesive to support both defensive duties and attacking transitions.
Key Player Duels
The outcome of this match could hinge on several key battles across the pitch. The contest between Ibrahim Sissoko and Metz’s central defenders, including Matthieu Udol and Fali Candé, will be crucial. Sissoko’s strength and finishing ability will test a Metz defence that has been far from solid.
In midfield, Thomas Monconduit’s battle with Lamine Camara will be pivotal in controlling the game’s tempo. Monconduit’s ability to break up play and distribute effectively will be key to Saint-Etienne’s strategy, while Camara’s vision and passing could unlock the Saint-Etienne defence.
Expected Gameplay and Strategies
Saint-Etienne are likely to adopt an aggressive approach at home, looking to capitalise on their defensive strengths and create scoring opportunities. They have shown proficiency in maintaining possession and generating chances, averaging 13.2 shots per game. Their disciplined defence, which has kept 19 clean sheets, will be crucial in containing Metz’s forwards.
Metz are expected to play a more cautious game, focusing on counter-attacks and set pieces. With only 3.9 corners per game, they will need to make the most of any opportunities that come their way. Georges Mikautadze’s presence up front will be central to their hopes, relying on his ability to convert chances under pressure.
Lineups and Tactical Commentary
Saint-Etienne: Larsonneur; Macon, Batubinsika, Nade, Petrot; Cardona, Moueffek, Monconduit, Chambost, Cafaro; Sissoko
Saint-Etienne’s expected lineup features a balance of experience and youthful energy. The defensive quartet, led by Batubinsika, will aim to shut down Metz’s attacks. The midfield combination of Monconduit and Moueffek provides both defensive cover and creative support, while the attacking trio will look to exploit Metz’s weaknesses.
Metz: Oukidja; Colin, Herelle, Sane, Udol; Camara, Jacques, N’Doram; Van Den Kerkhof, Mikautadze, Diallo
Metz’s probable formation indicates a defensive approach, with a focus on quick transitions. The defence will need to be tight to withstand Saint-Etienne’s pressure. The midfield, orchestrated by Camara, will be crucial in launching counter-attacks, and Mikautadze’s role up front will be pivotal in their scoring efforts.
Betting Angles and Trends
Analysing the provided data highlights several betting opportunities. Saint-Etienne’s strong home record and Metz’s defensive frailties make a home win and over 1.5 goals a sound bet. Additionally, the likelihood of an early Saint-Etienne lead and their high shot volume suggest backing them for a first-half lead and over 4.5 shots on target.
Predictions
Best Bet: Saint-Etienne to Win
Given their solid home form and Metz’s recent struggles, Saint-Etienne are favourites to take the first leg. Their robust defence and efficient attack suggest they have the edge over a Metz side that has been defensively frail and inconsistent in front of goal. Saint-Etienne’s home advantage and confidence from their recent win against Rodez AF make them likely to secure a victory.
Correct Score Prediction: Saint-Etienne 2-1 Metz
Reflecting on the attacking capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities of both teams, a 2-1 victory for Saint-Etienne seems probable. Metz have managed to score in most of their recent games, despite their losses, suggesting they can find the net. However, Saint-Etienne’s stronger defence and home support should see them edge this contest.
Goalscorer Prediction: Ibrahim Sissoko to Score
Ibrahim Sissoko, with 13 goals this season, is poised to be a key figure in this match. His ability to convert chances and his presence in the box make him a likely scorer against a Metz defence that has struggled throughout the season. Sissoko’s recent form and Saint-Etienne’s attacking approach enhance his chances of getting on the scoresheet.
First Half Result: Saint-Etienne to Lead at Half Time
Metz’s tendency to concede early, with 30 first-half goals in 34 games, suggests that Saint-Etienne could take an early lead. Saint-Etienne’s home form and offensive strategy will likely see them pressing from the start, aiming to secure an advantage by half-time. Metz’s defensive lapses early in games further support this prediction.
Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Target for Saint-Etienne Over 4.5
Saint-Etienne’s attacking style and their average of 4.5 shots on target per game indicate they will be aggressive in front of goal. With Metz’s defensive vulnerabilities, especially in away games, it’s reasonable to expect Saint-Etienne to exceed 4.5 shots on target. This market offers a strong rationale given both teams’ statistical profiles.
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