Arsenal vs Everton Predictions

Arsenal vs Everton predictions for this Premier League clash at the Emirates. Arsenal could clinch Premier League glory with a victory over Everton at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Premier League | Gameweek 38 – May 19, 2024 at 4pm UK at The Emirates Stadium

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Arsenal vs Everton Predictions

Arsenal’s Final Push: Can the Gunners Overcome Everton and Keep Title Hopes Alive?

A glittering Premier League trophy will be poised at the Emirates Stadium on Sunday, where Arsenal’s hopes of securing the title hinge not just on their performance against Everton but also on Manchester City’s result against West Ham United. As Arsenal seek to end a 20-year wait for top-flight glory, Mikel Arteta’s men face a Toffees side with nothing left to play for but pride.

Arsenal’s Form and Prospects

Arsenal have demonstrated remarkable resilience and form as the season draws to a close. Despite a midweek shift in dynamics where some fans hoped for Tottenham’s success against Manchester City, the outcome saw City take the upper hand, pushing Arsenal into second place. The Gunners head into this final fixture with a slim chance of overtaking City, relying on a slip-up from the reigning champions while they aim to secure victory against Everton.

The North London side has been in exceptional form, particularly in defence, which has been instrumental in their title charge. Their recent 1-0 victory over Manchester United at Old Trafford marked their fifth consecutive Premier League win, with clean sheets in four of those encounters. Arsenal’s defence has been the stingiest in the league, conceding just 28 goals. This defensive solidity, combined with their attacking prowess, positions them as strong favourites to claim all three points on Sunday.

Everton’s End-of-Season Dynamics

In stark contrast, Everton’s season has been a battle for survival. Securing their Premier League status with a crucial 1-0 victory over Brentford, Sean Dyche’s men have since managed an impressive run of form, collecting 13 points from their last five matches. Despite this upturn, their away form remains abysmal, failing to secure a win in their last ten league outings on the road.

Everton’s offensive struggles are glaring, with just 39 goals scored in 37 matches, placing them among the least effective attacks in the division. Their reliance on home form to garner points is evident, and their last two visits to Arsenal have ended in heavy defeats without scoring. Given these factors, Everton are expected to find it challenging to breach the Gunners’ robust defence.

Expected Lineups and Tactical Setups

Arsenal’s Potential Starting XI: Raya; White, Saliba, Gabriel, Tomiyasu; Odegaard, Partey, Rice; Saka, Havertz, Trossard

Mikel Arteta is likely to stick with a tried and tested lineup, with Bukayo Saka expected to shake off a minor knock to start. The defensive quartet of White, Saliba, Gabriel, and Tomiyasu has been formidable, while the midfield trio of Odegaard, Partey, and Rice provides both creativity and stability. The forward line, featuring Saka, Havertz, and Trossard, combines pace, skill, and finishing ability.

Everton’s Potential Starting XI: Pickford; Coleman, Tarkowski, Branthwaite, Young; Garner, Onana, Gueye, McNeil; Doucoure; Calvert-Lewin

Sean Dyche will likely opt for a conservative approach, relying on a solid defensive setup and hoping to hit Arsenal on the counter. The experienced Pickford will guard the net, with a defensive line that includes the robust Tarkowski and promising Branthwaite. In midfield, Onana and Gueye will aim to disrupt Arsenal’s rhythm, while Doucoure and Calvert-Lewin will look to capitalise on any opportunities created.

Key Battles and Tactical Matchups

Midfield Control: The battle in midfield will be crucial, with Arsenal’s trio of Odegaard, Partey, and Rice up against Everton’s more defensive setup. Odegaard’s creativity and Partey’s ability to break up play will be key to Arsenal’s control of the game. On the other hand, Onana and Gueye will need to be disciplined and aggressive to stifle Arsenal’s midfield dynamism.

Defensive Solidity: Arsenal’s defence, which has been the best in the league, will be tested by Everton’s physicality. Saliba and Gabriel’s ability to handle Calvert-Lewin’s aerial threat will be pivotal. Meanwhile, Everton’s defence, marshalled by Tarkowski, will have to cope with the pace and movement of Saka and Trossard.

Attacking Threats: Arsenal’s attack, led by Saka and supported by Havertz and Trossard, will look to exploit any gaps in Everton’s defence. Saka’s directness and Trossard’s ability to find space will be crucial. For Everton, Doucoure’s late runs into the box and Calvert-Lewin’s presence in the air will be their main attacking outlets.

Gameplay Prediction

Arsenal are expected to dominate possession and create numerous chances, with Everton likely to sit deep and look to counter. The Gunners’ ability to break down a compact defence will be tested, but their recent form suggests they have the firepower to do so. Everton will aim to frustrate Arsenal and take advantage of set-pieces and counter-attacks, but their lack of creativity and goal-scoring threat on the road will likely hinder their efforts.

Tactical Analysis: Deep-Dive

Offensive and Defensive Strategies

Arsenal’s Offensive Strategy:

Arsenal’s attacking prowess has been a hallmark of their success this season. With an average of 2.4 goals per game, their forward line, led by Bukayo Saka, Kai Havertz, and Leandro Trossard, has been instrumental. Saka, in particular, has been a constant threat on the right flank, using his pace and dribbling skills to penetrate defences. His ability to cut inside and shoot or deliver precise crosses makes him a multifaceted danger.

Kai Havertz has also been crucial, often playing a deeper role to link up play and create scoring opportunities. His positioning and movement have opened up spaces for his teammates, allowing players like Trossard and Martin Ødegaard to exploit those gaps. Ødegaard’s vision and passing ability have been vital in breaking down defences, making him a key playmaker for the Gunners.

Defensively, Arsenal have been robust, boasting the best defensive record in the league with only 28 goals conceded. The centre-back pairing of William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhães has been solid, providing a strong foundation at the back. Ben White and Takehiro Tomiyasu have also contributed significantly, with their ability to join attacks and track back quickly.

Everton’s Defensive Strategy:

Everton’s approach under Sean Dyche has been more conservative, focusing on defensive solidity. With a clear emphasis on organisation and resilience, Everton have managed 13 clean sheets this season. The central defensive duo of James Tarkowski and Jarrad Branthwaite has been pivotal, with Tarkowski’s leadership and Branthwaite’s emerging talent forming a reliable partnership.

In midfield, Amadou Onana and Idrissa Gueye have played crucial roles in shielding the defence and disrupting opposition play. Their physicality and tackling ability have been key in breaking up attacks and initiating counters. However, Everton’s offensive strategy has been less effective, with only 39 goals scored. The reliance on Dominic Calvert-Lewin to lead the line has been evident, but injuries and inconsistent form have hampered his contributions.

Key Player Performances

Bukayo Saka (Arsenal):

Saka has been Arsenal’s standout performer, contributing 16 goals and nine assists. His ability to take on defenders, create chances, and score goals has made him indispensable. His versatility in playing on either wing or as a central attacking midfielder has added an extra dimension to Arsenal’s attack.

Kai Havertz (Arsenal):

Havertz’s 12 goals and seven assists highlight his importance in Arsenal’s attacking setup. His intelligence in finding pockets of space and linking play has been crucial, often acting as the catalyst for Arsenal’s offensive moves.

James Tarkowski (Everton):

Tarkowski’s defensive displays have been commendable, with his leadership at the back helping Everton maintain their structure. His aerial prowess and tackling have been vital in keeping opponents at bay, and his experience has been a calming influence on the team.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin (Everton):

Calvert-Lewin’s return to fitness has been a boost for Everton, with his seven goals crucial in their battle against relegation. His ability to hold up play and his aerial threat have provided Everton with a focal point in attack, even though his season has been disrupted by injuries.

Impact of Management

Mikel Arteta (Arsenal):

Arteta’s management has transformed Arsenal into genuine title contenders. His tactical acumen and ability to instill a winning mentality have been evident throughout the season. Arteta’s focus on a balanced approach, combining solid defence with fluid attack, has paid dividends. His decision to trust in young talents like Saka and integrating experienced signings like Havertz and Ødegaard has created a dynamic and cohesive unit.

Sean Dyche (Everton):

Dyche’s impact at Everton has been characterised by his emphasis on defensive organisation and physicality. His pragmatic approach has steadied the ship, ensuring Premier League survival. However, his conservative tactics have often limited Everton’s attacking potential. Dyche’s reluctance to adopt a more expansive style has drawn criticism, especially given the attacking talent at his disposal.

Expected Goals (xG) Analysis

Arsenal’s offensive capabilities are reflected in their expected goals (xG) metrics, consistently generating high-quality chances. With an average xG of around 2.1 per game, they are among the most potent attacking forces in the league. Their ability to convert these chances into goals has been a key factor in their title challenge.

Everton’s xG, on the other hand, highlights their struggles in front of goal. Averaging an xG of approximately 1.2 per game, they have found it challenging to create and convert opportunities. This inefficiency has been a significant factor in their lower league position, despite their defensive strengths.

Comparative Analysis

Tactics and Strategies:

Arsenal’s tactics are centred around high pressing, quick transitions, and fluid attacking movements. Their versatility in attack, with multiple players capable of scoring and creating, makes them a formidable opponent. Defensively, their ability to maintain shape and press high up the pitch disrupts opposition play effectively.

Everton’s tactics under Dyche focus on defensive solidity and counter-attacks. While this approach has ensured stability at the back, it has often left them toothless in attack. Their reliance on long balls and set-pieces for goals has been a limitation, especially against well-organised defences.

Player Performances:

Arsenal’s key players, such as Saka, Havertz, and Ødegaard, have consistently delivered top performances, contributing significantly to their attacking and defensive metrics. Everton’s standout performers, like Tarkowski and Calvert-Lewin, have been crucial, but the overall squad has lacked the consistency needed to challenge higher up the table.

Overall Success:

Arsenal’s overall success this season can be attributed to their balanced approach, tactical flexibility, and consistent performances from key players. In contrast, Everton’s season has been marked by survival, with their defensive strategy ensuring they stay in the Premier League but limiting their potential for higher achievements.

Suggestions for Improvement

Arsenal:

To enhance their title credentials further, Arsenal should focus on depth. Strengthening their bench with quality backups will be crucial, especially given the intensity of Premier League and European competitions. Additionally, refining their attacking transitions and ensuring more clinical finishing could turn close games into definitive victories.

Everton:

Everton need to adopt a more balanced approach, integrating more offensive creativity into their tactics. Strengthening their midfield with creative playmakers who can link defence and attack will be crucial. Improving their squad depth, particularly in attacking positions, will also be essential to avoid over-reliance on key players like Calvert-Lewin.

Pros and Cons of Strategies

Arsenal:

Pros:

• Dynamic attacking play with multiple goal threats.
• Strong defensive organisation and high pressing.

Cons:

• Occasional vulnerability to counter-attacks.
• Dependence on key players remaining fit.

Everton:

Pros:

• Solid defensive structure.
• Effective in set-piece situations.

Cons:

• Limited attacking creativity.
• Inconsistent away form.

Managerial Strengths and Weaknesses

Mikel Arteta:

Strengths:

• Tactical flexibility and innovation.
• Ability to develop young talents.

Weaknesses:

• Occasionally overly cautious in big games.
• Reliance on a core group of players.

Sean Dyche:

Strengths:

• Strong defensive organisation.
• Pragmatic approach ensuring survival.

Weaknesses:

• Conservative tactics limiting attacking potential.
• Inability to adapt to different game situations.

Betting Angles and Predictions

Best Bet: Arsenal/Arsenal Half Time/Full Time

Arsenal have consistently demonstrated their ability to start games strongly, often taking early leads and maintaining them. Given their need for a decisive win to keep their title hopes alive, Mikel Arteta’s side is expected to come out with aggressive intent from the first whistle. Arsenal’s impressive home form and attacking prowess make them strong favourites to lead at both half-time and full-time.

In contrast, Everton’s away form has been dismal, with no wins in their last ten top-flight trips. Their defence has been vulnerable, particularly in the early stages of matches. With Arsenal’s dynamic forwards such as Bukayo Saka and Leandro Trossard likely to press high and create early chances, the Gunners are well-positioned to secure an early advantage. Therefore, betting on Arsenal to be leading at both half-time and full-time offers a solid return, reflecting the significant gulf in form and quality between the two sides.

Correct Score Prediction: Arsenal 3-0 Everton

Taking into account Arsenal’s formidable home form and Everton’s poor record on the road, a 3-0 victory for the Gunners appears likely. Arsenal have been prolific in front of goal, averaging 2.4 goals per game this season, and their recent defensive solidity suggests they are capable of keeping a clean sheet. The Gunners’ ability to control games and create numerous goal-scoring opportunities underlines their potential to secure a comprehensive win.

Everton, on the other hand, have struggled offensively, particularly away from home, scoring only 17 goals in their travels this season. Their lack of cutting edge in attack, combined with Arsenal’s strong defensive unit, means they are unlikely to breach the Gunners’ defence. A 3-0 scoreline accurately reflects Arsenal’s dominance and Everton’s difficulties, aligning with the overall form and statistical trends of both teams.

Goalscorer Prediction: Bukayo Saka to Score

Bukayo Saka has been a standout performer for Arsenal this season, netting 16 goals in the Premier League. His pace, dribbling skills, and ability to cut inside from the right flank make him a constant threat to opposition defences. Against an Everton side that has conceded 49 goals this season, Saka’s chances of adding to his tally are high.

Saka’s positioning and movement often place him in prime goal-scoring positions, and his clinical finishing has been evident throughout the campaign. Given Everton’s defensive vulnerabilities, particularly on the flanks, Saka’s direct approach and sharpness in front of goal make him a strong candidate to find the back of the net. His ability to exploit space and create scoring opportunities for himself further bolsters this prediction.

Corner Prediction: Arsenal to Get More Corners

Arsenal’s attacking style of play typically results in a high number of corners. They average 6.9 corners per game, a testament to their offensive pressure and tendency to dominate possession. With Everton likely to adopt a more defensive approach, Arsenal are expected to control the game and create numerous scoring opportunities, leading to a high number of corners.

Everton, in contrast, average fewer corners per game due to their more conservative style of play, particularly away from home. Their defensive setup often results in them conceding corners as they look to clear the ball under pressure. Therefore, betting on Arsenal to win more corners aligns with the statistical trends and expected gameplay dynamics. A total of around 10 corners combined for both teams, with Arsenal having the majority, seems reasonable.

Shot on Target Prediction: Kai Havertz to Have 1 or More Shots on Target

Kai Havertz has been an influential player for Arsenal, frequently finding himself in goal-scoring positions. His ability to shoot from distance and his knack for getting into the box to meet crosses make him a consistent threat. Havertz has been averaging a significant number of shots per game, and against an Everton side that is likely to defend deep, he should have plenty of opportunities to test the goalkeeper.

Given Everton’s defensive record and their tendency to concede chances, Havertz is expected to have at least one shot on target. His positioning, movement, and shooting accuracy support this prediction. With Arsenal likely to dominate possession and create numerous scoring opportunities, Havertz’s role in the attacking setup makes him a strong candidate to register shots on target.

Yellow Card Prediction: James Tarkowski to Get a Yellow Card

James Tarkowski’s aggressive defending and his tendency to commit fouls make him a prime candidate to receive a yellow card. Up against Arsenal’s fast and skillful attackers, Tarkowski will be under constant pressure. His role as Everton’s defensive leader often requires him to make crucial tackles and interceptions, which can sometimes lead to bookings.

Tarkowski has already accumulated a significant number of yellow cards this season, reflecting his combative style of play. With the pace and trickery of players like Bukayo Saka and Leandro Trossard, Tarkowski is likely to be tested frequently. This scenario increases the likelihood of him committing fouls and potentially receiving a yellow card. His disciplinary record and the expected nature of the match make this a well-supported prediction.

Assist Prediction: Martin Ødegaard to Provide an Assist

Martin Ødegaard’s creativity and vision have been pivotal to Arsenal’s attacking play. With eight assists this season, he has consistently created goal-scoring opportunities for his teammates. Ødegaard’s ability to unlock defences with precise passes makes him a key playmaker for the Gunners.

Facing an Everton side that will likely defend deep, Ødegaard’s role in breaking down their defence becomes even more crucial. His link-up play with the forwards, particularly Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz, provides Arsenal with a constant threat. Given his form and the expected gameplay dynamics, predicting Ødegaard to provide an assist is well-founded. His ability to create space and deliver accurate passes will be essential in Arsenal’s quest for goals.

Innovative Market: Total Team Shots on Target for Arsenal Over 6.5

Arsenal have averaged 6.0 shots on target per game this season, reflecting their attacking dominance. Facing an Everton defence that has been prone to conceding chances, the Gunners are likely to exceed their season average in this match. Arsenal’s attacking unit, featuring Saka, Havertz, and Trossard, is expected to generate numerous shooting opportunities.

Everton’s defensive approach, particularly away from home, often leads to them conceding a high number of shots on target. With Arsenal’s need for a decisive win and their offensive capabilities, betting on the Gunners to have over 6.5 shots on target is a strong proposition. This prediction is supported by the statistical averages and the expected dynamics of the game, where Arsenal’s attackers will be eager to capitalise on Everton’s defensive lapses.

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