FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund Predictions for this Bundesliga clash. Mainz, battling relegation, host Dortmund with vital support from an expected 30,000 fans at Mewa Arena, with just two games left in the season. Read on for our free predictions and betting tips.
Bundesliga | Gameweek 33 – May 11, 2024 at 4:30pm UK at The Opel Arena
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FSV Mainz 05 vs Borussia Dortmund Predictions
High Stakes at the MEWA Arena: Mainz’s Relegation Battle vs Dortmund’s Champions Display
Key Stats
– Mainz’s Survival Fight: Unbeaten in their last seven Bundesliga matches, showing resilience under pressure.
– Dortmund’s Depth Tested: Rotated squad still managed a 5-1 win in their last match, showcasing squad depth.
– Direct Confrontations: The last meeting ended in a draw, highlighting the competitive nature of this fixture.
As the Bundesliga season winds down, the stakes couldn’t be higher for Mainz, who face a formidable challenge against a Borussia Dortmund team with its eyes set on the Champions League final. This encounter at the MEWA Arena is more than just a game; it’s a fight for survival for Mainz and a test of depth for Dortmund.
Current Form and Tactical Setup
Mainz has shown a resilient side under the new management of Bo Henriksen. Despite a tough season, their recent form has been promising, undefeated in their last seven Bundesliga games. However, their inability to secure victories against lower-ranked teams like Heidenheim, Koln, and Freiburg has left them in a precarious position just above the relegation zone.
Dortmund, on the other hand, have shifted their focus primarily to the upcoming Champions League final. With the Bundesliga title out of reach and their spot in next season’s Champions League secured, coach Edin Terzic has the luxury of resting key players. This strategy was evident in their last match, where a rotated squad still managed a dominant 5-1 victory over Augsburg.
Expected Lineups and Key Players
Mainz’s Starting XI:
- Zentner; Bell, Niakhate, Hack; Da Costa, Barreiro, Kohr, Aaron; Boetius, Burkardt, Onisiwo.
Dortmund’s Starting XI:
- Hitz; Meunier, Akanji, Hummels, Schulz; Bellingham, Witsel; Hazard, Brandt, Reyna; Malen.
Mainz will rely heavily on Jonathan Burkardt and Karim Onisiwo for goals, given their critical roles in Mainz’s attack this season. For Dortmund, the depth players like Thorgan Hazard and Julian Brandt will need to step up, providing the necessary creativity and scoring threat in the absence of regular starters.
Strategic Battles and Areas to Watch
The midfield battle will be crucial. Mainz must disrupt Dortmund’s playmaking ability, particularly focusing on containing Jude Bellingham’s dynamic movements. Dortmund’s wingers, potentially Hazard and Reyna, will test Mainz’s fullbacks, demanding a disciplined defensive performance.
Defensively, Mainz has to be wary of Dortmund’s counter-attacking threat, especially with the pace of Malen up front. The defensive organisation will be key to Mainz’s ability to secure at least a point.
Highly Opinionated Analysis
Bo Henriksen has instilled a fighting spirit in Mainz, but his late appointment might be criticised if Mainz fails to secure Bundesliga safety. His strategic choices in the next two games will be his most significant test yet.
Edin Terzic has proven his tactical versatility and deserves praise for managing Dortmund’s season amidst high expectations. However, his decision to heavily rotate the squad against Mainz could be seen as undermining the integrity of the competition, especially if it affects the relegation battle outcome.
Predictions and Betting Angles
Best Bet: Both Teams to Score
Given Dortmund’s attacking depth and Mainz’s desperate need for points, expecting both teams to score seems a reasonable bet. Mainz will push forward at home, while Dortmund’s young forwards will look to impress.
Correct Score Prediction: Mainz 2-2 Dortmund
A high-scoring draw reflects both teams’ current dynamics. Mainz will fight hard to avoid relegation, while Dortmund’s rotated squad can still pose a significant threat upfront.
Goalscorer Prediction: Jonathan Burkardt to Score
Burkardt has been crucial for Mainz this season. His ability to find the net in big moments makes him a likely candidate to score in such a crucial match.
Corner Prediction: Dortmund to Earn More Corners
Even with a rotated lineup, Dortmund’s style involves wide play, which often results in corners. Expect Dortmund to edge Mainz in this aspect, with a total of over 9.5 corners in the game being likely due to the open nature of the play.
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