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Read Rationale▾
Hearts occupy the top spot with a 67% win rate and clinical efficiency. St Mirren are in poor form, failing to score in 58% of home games and averaging just 0.58 goals at the Smisa Stadium. Hearts’ superior offensive metrics make a multi-goal victory highly likely.
Read Rationale▾
The previous meeting ended 2-0 to Hearts, and St Mirren’s finishing is statistically the league’s weakest. Hearts concede only 0.83 goals per away match, while the Saints have fired blanks in 11 games this season. A disciplined 2-0 away win follows all current trends.
Match Analysis & Context
The landscape of the Scottish Premiership presents a stark contrast this Tuesday. Hearts are riding a wave of momentum, sitting atop the standings with 54 points from 24 fixtures. Under Derek McInnes, they have developed into a high-possession side that excels at controlling games in the opposition half. Their recent form—four wins and a draw in their last five league games—demonstrates the consistency of a title-chasing outfit.
St Mirren, meanwhile, find themselves at a critical juncture. After a series of top-half finishes in previous years, they are now embroiled in a relegation battle, sitting 10th with just 20 points. Stephen Robinson’s squad is winless in seven matches and has struggled immensely to find the back of the net, scoring just once in their last five outings. The pressure is mounting at the Smisa Stadium as they host the league’s most clinical attack.
Hearts -1 Handicap Rationale
The gap in technical quality between these two sides is currently immense. Hearts are “Very Strong” at finishing scoring chances and attacking set pieces, whereas St Mirren’s finishing is categorised as “Very Weak.” The visitors average 14.63 shots per match with a 13% conversion rate, nearly double that of their hosts. Hearts’ dominance is also reflected in their ability to steal the ball in dangerous areas, which leads to high-quality chances on the break.
St Mirren’s defensive frailties against attacks down the wings and counter-attacks play directly into Hearts’ hands. With Lawrence Shankland (11 goals) and Claudio Braga (10 goals) in sensational form, Hearts have the firepower to win by a comfortable margin. Given St Mirren’s 58% failure-to-score rate at home, Hearts only need two goals to cover this handicap, a feat they have achieved with ease against higher-quality opposition recently.
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Hearts 2-0 Correct Score Analysis
A 2-0 scoreline is the most statistically probable outcome based on both sides’ defensive and offensive identities. Hearts concede a mere 0.83 goals per away fixture, making a clean sheet highly likely against a St Mirren attack that averages just 0.58 goals at home. Hearts’ “Strong” ability to protect the lead means that once they find the net, they transition into a possession-based game that limits the opponent’s touches in the final third.
The tactical match-up suggests Hearts will dominate the ball (averaging 54% possession) and use their “Very Strong” aerial duels and through-ball capabilities to breach a Saints defence that is prone to individual errors. Historically, Hearts have dominated this fixture, winning 67% of the last six meetings, including a 2-0 victory just three weeks ago. Everything points toward a disciplined, multi-goal victory for the league leaders without reply.
Expert Q&A
What does a -1 handicap bet mean?
A -1 handicap means Hearts start the game with a hypothetical one-goal deficit. For your bet to win, Hearts must win the match by two or more goals (e.g., 2-0, 3-0, 3-1).
Why is St Mirren’s home form so poor?
St Mirren have failed to score in 58% of their home games this season. While they are organised, they lack the clinical edge required to turn draws into wins, having drawn 42% of their matches at the Smisa Stadium.
Who is the biggest threat for Hearts?
Lawrence Shankland remains the focal point of the attack with 11 goals, but keep an eye on Claudio Braga, who has contributed 10 goals and excels at exploiting spaces left by struggling defences.
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