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Sassuolo’s final fixture before Christmas comes with a proper mid-table edge to it. Torino arrive at the Mapei Stadium with the standings picture clear enough: four points separate the sides after 15 matches, with Sassuolo sitting 9th on 21 points and Torino 13th on 17. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Sassuolo sit four points clear of Torino and boast a vastly superior goal difference (+2 vs -11). Their recent form includes a 3-0 win over Atalanta and a 2-2 draw with AC Milan, showing they can handle pressure. Torino have failed to win their last five away games and concede 1.73 goals per match on average. Given that Sassuolo are unbeaten in eight of their last nine home meetings with Torino, the hosts are well-positioned. The Draw No Bet selection offers protection against the frequent draws seen in this specific fixture.
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This scoreline reflects Sassuolo's average of 1.4 goals per game and Torino’s defensive frailties, as the visitors concede nearly two goals per match. While Sassuolo are the stronger side, they have struggled to keep clean sheets, conceding in each of their last four matches. Torino have scored in eight of their last nine visits to Sassuolo, suggesting they are likely to get on the scoresheet through Zapata or Adams. A 2-1 result is consistent with Sassuolo’s attacking output and Torino's tendency to lose closely contested games.
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Sassuolo vs Torino Predictions and Best Bets
Sassuolo vs Torino — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key lines with season context, common scorelines and selected bet365 prices shown below.
The prices shown are the listed 1X2 numbers, alongside each outcome’s season rate taken from overall league results.
These scorelines appear as the most frequent full-time outcomes across each club’s league matches this season, with example prices shown.
The percentages shown reflect the listed match fixture line (BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 57%) and each team’s season Under 2.5 rate (40%).
The bar measure is each player’s league goal count this season, with an example “Anytime” price shown alongside.
- Sassuolo’s attack has produced 21 goals in 15 league matches, with Pinamonti and Berardi both on 4, and Lauriente and Koné on 3, offering multiple routes to goal.
- Torino have conceded 26 goals in 15 matches and allow 1.58 xG against per match, a defensive profile that can invite pressure if Sassuolo’s front three sustain attacks in the final third.
- Sassuolo’s second halves have delivered 6 wins, 7 draws and only 2 losses, with 14 goals scored and 9 conceded after the break, hinting at a team that finishes matches strongly.
Match Tempo: Average Total Goals per Serie A Game
Both sides have been involved in games with plenty happening on the scoreboard, with their total-goals averages sitting in a similar range across the season.
Their matches average 2.67 total goals, reflecting a season where Sassuolo often create chances and still allow opportunities at the other end.
Torino games sit at 2.73 total goals on average, shaped by a defence that concedes 1.73 per match and an attack scoring 1.0 per match.
Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded per Match
This is a clean snapshot of how often each side is breached across the league campaign, and it helps frame what game states they tend to face.
Conceding 1.27 per match pairs with 19 goals allowed in 15 games, so Sassuolo’s defensive work has been steadier than the visitors’ overall.
Torino concede 1.73 per match and have shipped 26 goals in 15 games, a profile that can force them into recovery defending across long spells.
Chance Volume: Shots per Match
Shot volume won’t tell you everything on its own, but it’s a quick guide to how often each team turns possessions into attempts on goal.
Sassuolo average 11 shots per match, with 3.93 on target, pointing to a side that can generate attempts without needing huge spells of possession.
Torino take 11.73 shots per match and put 4.20 on target, so the raw volume is there even if their scoring rate sits at 1 goal per match.
Can Sassuolo’s late-match edge tilt a tight Torino test before Christmas?
It sets up as a game where the margins could be less about grand reputations and more about who imposes their preferred rhythm first. Sassuolo have been the more productive side in front of goal overall, with 21 scored and 19 conceded, while Torino’s season has been tougher at both ends: 15 scored, 26 conceded, and a goal difference of -11. That contrast alone hints at the likely emotional tone of the afternoon: Sassuolo looking to play and create, Torino looking for control and a cleaner defensive day.
There’s also a nudge of narrative momentum on the away side. Torino finally ended a long winless run last week, which matters not because it magically changes everything overnight, but because it can shift how a team approaches the next match: a touch more courage in possession, a touch less panic when the first press is beaten, and a touch more belief when the first chance arrives.
In short: two mid-table sides, one trying to lean into its attacking outputs, the other trying to turn gritty, hard-earned steps into something repeatable. Not a Christmas cracker by branding, perhaps. But tactically, there’s plenty to bite into.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Sassuolo’s possible starting XI points to a shape built around a three-man midfield and two wide forwards supporting a central striker: Muric; Walukiewicz, Izdes, Muharemovic, Doig; Vranckx, Matic, Kone; Volpato, Pinamonti, Lauriente.
On paper, that midfield mix suggests Sassuolo want both balance and variety. With Matic as a steadying presence, Vranckx and Kone can give legs either side of him: covering ground, supporting the press, and stepping forward to connect play. Ahead of them, Volpato and Lauriente either side of Pinamonti hints at an attack that can threaten in two ways: by feeding the striker early, or by pulling defenders wide and opening lanes for runners from deep.
Torino’s possible starting XI looks structurally different, with a back three and wing-backs, plus two forwards: Israel; Tameze, Maripan, Ismajli; Pedersen, Casadei, Asllani, Vlasic, Lazaro; Adams, Zapata.
That selection implies Torino can match Sassuolo’s wide threats with wing-backs, while keeping three centre-backs behind the ball. The midfield names suggest two potential priorities: Asllani and Casadei giving a platform to play through pressure, and Vlasic positioned to link into the front two. With Adams and Zapata together, Torino have options to vary their attacks: one can stretch, the other can pin, and the pair can share the work of pressing from the front.
The likely set-ups therefore point to a classic question: can Sassuolo’s front three isolate Torino’s wide areas, or does Torino’s extra centre-back and wing-back structure swallow those spaces and force Sassuolo into lower-percentage deliveries?
How the Match Could Be Played
The first tactical battle could be about where Sassuolo build their attacks. Their season possession average is 45%, which suggests they’re not trying to dominate the ball for its own sake. Instead, they may look to move it quickly into productive zones, especially if Torino’s shape invites passes wide.
Torino’s season possession average is 43%, so neither side is wedded to monopolising the ball. That can create a match defined by transitions and second balls rather than long spells of sterile circulation. In that scenario, the midfield triangle becomes crucial. Sassuolo’s Vranckx–Matic–Kone unit may try to win the “first contact” moments: the loose clearances, the ricochets, the slightly overhit lay-offs that decide who attacks next.
Torino’s back three can encourage Sassuolo to press, but pressing a three can be a trap if the wing-backs are released cleanly. With Pedersen and Lazaro listed as part of Torino’s XI, the wide outlets look central to their route up the pitch. If Sassuolo’s full-backs step high to engage those wing-backs, the risk is what happens behind them: can Volpato and Lauriente track all the way, and can the back line cope with quick switches into the channels?
Equally, Sassuolo can look at Torino’s defensive outputs and see an invitation. Torino concede 1.73 goals per match, and their xG against per match is 1.58. That combination suggests they are giving up decent chances, not just the occasional freak goal. If Sassuolo can get Pinamonti receiving in the box with support runners arriving on time, Torino may be forced into last-ditch defending.
The key is how Sassuolo access those moments. Their shot profile is 11 shots per match, with 3.93 on target, and an xG for of 1.24. Those numbers read like a side that manufactures opportunities consistently, even if they aren’t always the highest-quality shots imaginable. That’s where Torino’s structure matters: if the away side can keep Sassuolo to attempts from wider or deeper areas, the volume might still be there, but the sting can be reduced.
At the other end, Torino take 11.73 shots per match with 4.20 on target, but their conversion rate is 9%. That suggests they do create and shoot, but not efficiently enough. With Adams and Zapata together, Torino may try to simplify: get the ball forward earlier, create shooting chances quickly, and hope that repeated entries eventually yield a clean look.
A fascinating subplot is timing. Sassuolo’s second-half profile stands out: across 15 matches, their second halves read 6 wins, 7 draws and 2 losses, with 14 goals scored and 9 conceded. That points to a side that finishes matches well, whether through fitness, game management, or the ability to adjust. Torino’s second-half totals are different: 4 wins, 8 draws and 3 losses, with 7 scored and 11 conceded. If this game is level late on, Sassuolo’s pattern hints they may be more comfortable turning the screw, while Torino’s numbers suggest they can be pulled into defensive strain.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Start with the table: Sassuolo are 9th with 21 points from 15, while Torino are 13th with 17 from 15. That four-point gap matters because it frames the match as a chance for Sassuolo to cement their position and for Torino to close the distance, rather than a dead rubber.
Then look at end product. Sassuolo have scored 21 and conceded 19, a positive goal difference of +2. Torino have scored 15 and conceded 26, a goal difference of -11. That doesn’t just tell you who’s been “better”; it hints at match personality. Sassuolo’s games average 2.67 total goals, while Torino’s average is 2.73, so both sides tend to be involved in matches where chances exist at both ends.
In chance creation terms, Sassuolo’s xG for per match is 1.24 and they score 1.4 goals per match. That combination can read as a side finishing slightly above expectation, or as a side that creates chances that the model values modestly but which suit their attackers. Torino’s xG for per match is 1.31 but they score 1.0 per match, which suggests the opposite: the volume of opportunity is not translating into goals as reliably.
Defensively, Sassuolo’s xG against is 1.52 while they concede 1.27. That gap can suggest a side that bends but doesn’t always break, whether through shot suppression at key moments, goalkeeper contributions, or opponents missing chances. Torino’s xG against is 1.58 while they concede 1.73, implying that when they allow openings, the punishment tends to arrive.
Individual outputs add colour. For Sassuolo, Domenico Berardi and Andrea Pinamonti both have 4 league goals, with Armand Lauriente and Ismael Koné on 3. Cristian Volpato leads the assist chart with 4, and Berardi has 3. For Torino, Giovanni Simeone has 4 goals, with Nikola Vlašić and Che Adams on 3, while Vlašić leads assists with 2. Those names map neatly onto the likely XIs: creators feeding finishers, and the match likely tilting on which side’s key contributors get their touches in the right zones.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first “moment” is how Sassuolo’s front three engage Torino’s back three and wing-backs. If Volpato and Lauriente can receive early and drive at Pedersen and Lazaro, Sassuolo can turn Torino’s wide cover into a weakness: forcing retreats, creating cut-back opportunities, and dragging the outside centre-backs into uncomfortable distances.
The second is the duel between Torino’s two forwards and Sassuolo’s centre-backs. With Adams and Zapata listed together, Torino have the personnel to make the game messy in the right areas. A couple of early long deliveries, a few knockdowns, and suddenly Sassuolo are defending their own box more than they’d like. If that happens, Torino’s shot volume suggests they can generate attempts; the question is whether they can make them count, given a 9% shot conversion rate.
Third, keep an eye on how the match evolves after the break. Sassuolo’s second-half record across the season (6 wins, 7 draws, 2 losses, with a +5 goal difference in second halves) hints at a side that grows into games. Torino’s second halves show a heavier draw tendency (8 draws) and a negative goal difference. If the match is still in the balance with 20 minutes to go, Sassuolo’s season pattern suggests they’ll fancy their ability to find a late surge.
What could go wrong with this read? Quite a lot, frankly, because mid-table matches often swing on the smallest details: a deflection turning into a big chance, a game state changing the risk appetite, or a single duel going unexpectedly one-sided. Torino’s recent step of ending a long winless run can also reshape intent; if they play with sharper conviction, the assumptions about who controls which phases may need revising quickly.
Best Bet for Sassuolo vs Torino
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Sassuolo to win (Draw No Bet)
Rationale
Sassuolo enter this fixture as the more stable and upwardly mobile side, sitting 9th in the table with 21 points. Their recent performances against high-caliber opposition provide a strong foundation for a home result; they recently secured a 2-2 draw away at AC Milan and a 3-0 victory against Atalanta. This ability to compete with the league’s top tier suggests a level of tactical maturity and confidence that Torino currently lacks. Statistically, Sassuolo possess a more efficient attack, scoring an average of 1.4 goals per game compared to Torino’s 1.0. This offensive edge is supported by an xG for of 1.24, indicating that their goal output is a sustainable reflection of the chances they create.
Torino, meanwhile, have struggled significantly with defensive consistency. They concede an average of 1.73 goals per match, and their seasonal goal difference of -11 highlights a vulnerability that Sassuolo’s front three—likely led by Pinamonti and Volpato—are well-equipped to exploit. While Torino did manage to end a winless streak with a narrow 1-0 victory over Cremonese, their away form remains a major concern; they have failed to win any of their last five league matches on the road. Furthermore, Torino are among the top three teams in the league for goal attempts allowed, conceding an average of 14.5 per match. Against a Sassuolo side that averages 11 shots per game, this volume of conceded opportunities is likely to prove costly.
The historical context at the Mapei Stadium also leans toward the hosts. Sassuolo are unbeaten in eight of their last nine home league matches against Torino. When combining this historical home dominance with Torino’s poor defensive metrics and Sassuolo’s superior momentum, the hosts are the more justified selection. Utilizing the Draw No Bet market provides a necessary safeguard, given that three of the last five head-to-head encounters between these two sides ended in a draw.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to this selection is Torino’s potential for defensive resilience in a low-block, which was evident in their recent 0-0 draw against Juventus. If Torino can successfully limit Sassuolo to low-quality shots from distance—as their 3-4-1-2 structure is designed to do—they may frustrate the hosts. Additionally, the recent return to winning ways against Cremonese could provide a psychological boost, potentially leading to a more disciplined and courageous away performance than their seasonal statistics suggest.
Correct score lean
Sassuolo 2-1 Torino
Rationale
A 2-1 victory for Sassuolo aligns with both teams’ seasonal scoring and defensive trends. Sassuolo average 1.4 goals per game and have seen over 2.5 goals in four of their last five matches, indicating an active offensive approach. Torino, despite their struggles, have managed to find the net in eight of their last nine away trips to this stadium, and with the strike partnership of Duvan Zapata and Che Adams, they possess enough individual quality to snatch a goal. Given Torino’s high rate of goals conceded (1.73 per match), Sassuolo should find the multiple openings required to secure the win.
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