Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Predictions

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid predictions ahead of this Champions League first-leg affair. Real Madrid host Atlético Madrid in a fiery Champions League last-16 first leg, with drama and intensity expected between the fierce rivals at the Bernabéu. Read on for our free betting tips and predictions.

Champions League  | Mar 4, 2025 at 8pm UK at Estadio Santiago Bernabeu

Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid Predictions

Can Real Madrid Finally Get One Over Atletico in Europe?

• Madrid Derby Stalemates
  • Each of the last three meetings between Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid has ended 1-1, highlighting how evenly matched they have been in recent years.
• Atletico’s Away Struggles in Europe
  • Simeone’s men have lost their last three Champions League knockout games on the road, a worrying sign heading into this tie.
• Bellingham’s Absence Could Be Crucial
  • The English midfielder, who is banned for this game, has been Madrid’s main source of attacking inspiration, and his absence could limit their ability to break down a deep Atletico block.

Best Bet for Real Madrid vs Atletico Madrid

Real Madrid and Atletico Madrid are set to reignite their fierce rivalry on the biggest stage as they clash in the Champions League last-16 first leg at the Santiago Bernabeu. The two Madrid giants have already played out two cagey 1-1 draws in La Liga this season, and with both sides carrying momentum into this European battle, another tight contest could be on the cards.

Carlo Ancelotti’s men have had a more turbulent path to this stage, having been forced into a gruelling play-off tie against Manchester City. However, they emerged victorious in style, with Kylian Mbappe producing a hat-trick in the second leg to eliminate the defending champions. That result underlined Madrid’s pedigree in this competition, but their weekend defeat to Real Betis was a timely reminder that they are not invincible.

Atletico, meanwhile, have been in imperious form, edging past Athletic Bilbao at the weekend to leapfrog Real in the La Liga table. However, their away record in Champions League knockout games is alarming, with three straight defeats on the road. Diego Simeone’s men are no strangers to heartbreak against their city rivals in Europe, having been knocked out by Madrid five times in the past. The question is, can they finally turn the tide this time?

Best Bet: Under 2.5 Goals

At BettingTips4You.com, we focus on delivering one top-quality prediction per game rather than bombarding readers with multiple picks. For this clash, the best bet is Under 2.5 Goals, as history suggests this will be a tight, low-scoring affair.

Why This Is the Smartest Pick

The recent history between these two sides paints a clear picture of how this game is likely to unfold. Each of the last three Madrid derbies has ended 1-1, with both teams often cancelling each other out in these tense encounters. Ancelotti’s side will be missing their key playmaker, Jude Bellingham, who is suspended for this clash. His absence could significantly affect Real Madrid’s attacking fluidity, particularly against a well-drilled Atletico side.

Atletico’s defensive approach in these fixtures is well known, and despite their attacking improvement in recent years, they are unlikely to deviate from their cautious tactics at the Bernabeu. Even in their weekend win over Athletic Bilbao, they needed a stroke of luck, with the Basque side hitting the woodwork three times. While they have players like Julian Alvarez who can make an impact in attack, Simeone will be primarily focused on frustrating Madrid and keeping the tie in the balance for the second leg.

Real Madrid, for all their attacking firepower, have struggled to break down Atletico’s deep defensive lines in recent encounters. Even with Mbappe in lethal form, they found it difficult to break through against Real Betis on Saturday, a game that exposed some of their vulnerabilities. Their defensive setup is also not at full strength, with injuries to key players like Dani Carvajal and Eder Militao meaning that Ancelotti might have to shuffle his backline.

BettingTips4You.com expert Gerard Gabasa sums up the thinking behind this pick:

“These Madrid derbies have become predictable in their cagey nature. With Bellingham missing and Atletico likely to prioritise defensive stability, goals could be at a premium. Expect another low-scoring battle.”

A goalless draw would not be surprising, but given the attacking quality on both sides, a 1-1 result appears to be the most probable outcome. That would maintain the trend of recent Madrid derbies and set up a fascinating second leg at the Metropolitano.

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