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Can Leipzig’s revived bite at Red Bull Arena slow Bayern’s title march under Vincent Kompany? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Bayern are unbeaten in 17 league matches and have already defeated Leipzig 6-0 this season. Their 68.5% possession and 19.5 shots per game make them heavy favorites despite Leipzig's strong home record.
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Bayern have scored at least twice in 25 consecutive Bundesliga games but have kept only one clean sheet in their last five, suggesting Leipzig will score but lose.
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RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich Predictions and Best Bets
Leipzig vs Bayern — bet365 Market Snapshot
Current match probabilities implied from the latest bet365 fractional odds.
Bayern’s heavyweight stats make them dominant favourites for this Bundesliga clash.
Both sides’ attacking volume leads to high scoring expectations according to market data.
- Bayern’s Relentless Pace: Top of the table on 47 points, Bayern are unbeaten in 17 league matches (15 wins, 2 draws) and have scored 66 goals, with just 13 conceded.
- Leipzig’s Defensive Reset: Leipzig’s 2-0 win over Freiburg saw them allow only 0.17 xG, three shots and one on target, sealing their fourth clean sheet in six Bundesliga fixtures.
- Volume vs Control: Leipzig average 16.6 shots per game with 50.7% possession, but Bayern crank it up to 19.5 shots and 68.5% possession, pinning opponents deep for long spells.
Attacking Volume: Average Shots per Game
A comparison of offensive pressure between the league’s most frequent shooters.
Leipzig’s aggressive approach relies on high shot volume, especially when attacking through the middle or the left flank.
Bayern dominate the shot charts, pinning opponents deep and sustaining pressure through their 68.5% average possession.
Scoring Reliability: Total League Goals
Visualising the output of both front lines throughout the current campaign.
Leipzig maintain a healthy two-goal per game average, with a significant threat coming from set-piece situations.
The visitors have scored more than double their hosts, averaging nearly 4 goals per match led by Harry Kane’s 20-goal tally.
Red Bull Arena gets the full spotlight on Saturday evening, with kick-off at 17:30, as RB Leipzig try to put grit in the gears of Bayern Munich’s title procession. Ole Werner’s side arrive off a timely, confidence-boosting win over Freiburg — not just the scoreline, but the control: Freiburg barely got a look in.
But Bayern are a different animal. Vincent Kompany’s league leaders are cruising, ruthless in the net and suffocating with the ball. Leipzig sit third on 32 points, yet the table is tight enough behind them that one wobble can drag you into traffic.
This has the feel of a statement fixture. Leipzig want to make it chaotic. Bayern want to make it routine.
Team News & Lineups
RB Leipzig
- Injuries/Absences
- J. Bakayoko (muscular problems)
- Y. Diomande (broken nose bone)
- L. Klostermann (flu)
- K. Kampl (special leave, until 31.01.2026)
Possible Starting XI
- Gulacsi; Nedeljkovic, Orban, Lukeba, Raum; Schlager, Seiwald, Baumgartner; Maksimovic, Harder, Gomis
Lineup Implication
- If Yan Diomande misses out, Leipzig lose a direct threat who has six league goals and a 7.30 rating — that’s pace and punch removed from the front line.
Bayern Munich
- Injuries/Absences
- None listed.
Possible Starting XI
- Neuer; Laimer, Upamecano, Tah, Ito; Pavlovic, Goretzka; Olise, Gnabry, Diaz; Kane
Lineup Implication
- Bayern’s front four is built to overwhelm: Harry Kane (20 goals) with creators and runners around him, including Michael Olise (9 goals, 10 assists) and Luis Díaz (9 goals, 9 assists).
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Bundesliga) | RB Leipzig | Bayern Munich |
|---|---|---|
| Position / Points | 3rd / 32 | 1st / 47 |
| Matches Played | 16 | 17 |
| Goals For | 32 | 66 |
| Goals Against | 19 | 13 |
| Shots per Game | 16.6 | 19.5 |
| Possession | 50.7% | 68.5% |
| Pass Accuracy | 84.6% | 90.3% |
Leipzig are a high-shot team with decent ball share, but Bayern’s numbers are heavyweight: more possession, cleaner passing, more shots, more goals. Leipzig’s edge is that they can live with intensity and create chances fast — especially at home, where they’ve only failed to win once this league season.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Bayern’s Grip: Territory, Tempo, and Through Balls
Bayern’s style is clear: possession football, control in the opposition half, and constant probing. With 90.3% pass accuracy and 68.5% possession, they don’t just keep the ball — they use it to lock you in.
The danger isn’t only wide play. Bayern create chances using through balls and they’re very strong on counter attacks too, which is nasty: even when you think you’ve survived a Bayern spell, one loose pass can turn into a sprint at your back line. With Kane finishing chances at an elite rate and shooting 3.8 times per match, Bayern don’t need many invitations.
But there’s a crack you can hit: Bayern are very weak at stopping opponents from creating chances, and weak in aerial duels. If Leipzig can force broken phases and second balls, they can make Bayern defend actions they’d rather avoid.
Leipzig’s Plan: Shots, Set Pieces, and the Left-Side Surge
Leipzig’s identity is built on volume and incision. They take a lot of shots, attempt through balls often, and like to attack through the middle — but the key lane here might be the left, where they lean into attacking down the left. David Raum is a central figure: two goals, two assists, and a standout 7.50 rating.
Leipzig are also very strong attacking set pieces and strong at creating chances through individual skill. Against a Bayern side that can cough up individual errors, that’s not a side note — it’s a route to real damage.
The Decider: Leipzig’s Offside Trap vs Bayern’s Timing
Leipzig like to play the offside trap. Bayern are very weak at avoiding offside. That’s a fascinating clash: Leipzig will try to spring it again and again; Bayern will keep making the same runs because they know the payoff when it clicks. Expect repeated “almost moments” — and one or two that break the game open.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces and second balls: Leipzig’s “very strong” set-piece threat against Bayern’s aerial weakness is a pressure point worth watching from the first corner.
- Raum’s channel: If Leipzig can feed David Raum early, they can drag Bayern’s shape wide and open lanes for runners.
- Transitions after turnovers: Bayern are built to punish sloppy clearances, but Leipzig’s best attacks also arrive in bursts — the midfield battle is a live wire.
What could go wrong?
For Leipzig, over-committing numbers forward and getting caught by Bayern’s counter attacks — one mistimed pass and you’re chasing shadows. For Bayern, switching off without the ball: they can allow chances, and Leipzig’s shot volume plus set-piece edge can turn one shaky spell into real jeopardy.
Best Bet for RB Leipzig vs Bayern Munich
Can Leipzig’s defensive reset withstand the league’s most clinical attack?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Scoring Power | Bayern: 66 goals in 17; Leipzig: 32 goals in 16 | Back Over 3.5 Goals |
| Win Rates | Bayern: 15W-2D-0L; Leipzig: 7 wins in 8 at home | Bayern Win / BTTS |
| Kane Factor | Harry Kane: 20 league goals in 17 matches | Kane Anytime Scorer |
| Defensive Form | Leipzig: 4 clean sheets in 6; Bayern: 1 in last 5 | Both Teams to Score |
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Bayern Munich to Win & Both Teams to Score
Bayern Munich arrive at the Red Bull Arena as an unstoppable force, sitting top of the table with 47 points and an unbeaten record through 17 matches. Their offensive output is historic, averaging nearly four goals per game. With Harry Kane leading the line on 20 goals and supported by creative outlets Michael Olise and Luis Díaz, who have combined for 19 goals and 19 assists, the visitors possess multiple ways to breach any defense.
Leipzig represent a significant challenge, especially at home where they have won seven of their eight matches this season. While they suffered a 6-0 loss to Bayern earlier in the campaign, their recent form shows a defensive reset, highlighted by four clean sheets in their last six games. They average 16.6 shots per game and have a potent left-side attack led by David Raum.
However, Bayern’s statistical dominance is overwhelming. They control 68.5% of possession and maintain a 90.3% pass accuracy, effectively pinning opponents deep for long spells. While Leipzig’s high-volume shooting and set-piece strength make them likely to find the net—especially given Bayern have only kept one clean sheet in their last five league games—the visitors’ superior finishing and counter-attacking speed are the deciding factors.
Expect Leipzig to create chances through their middle-heavy transitions and Raum’s delivery, but Bayern’s relentless pace and depth should ultimately secure the three points. Vincent Kompany’s side has shown they can recover even when trailing, as seen in their recent 3-1 win over Cologne.
What could go wrong? Leipzig’s offside trap is a high-risk, high-reward strategy that could frustrate Bayern, who are statistically weak at avoiding offside calls. If Leipzig can successfully nullify Kane through this trap and exploit Bayern’s aerial weaknesses on set pieces, they could force a low-scoring draw or a narrow upset.
Correct Score Lean
RB Leipzig 1-3 Bayern Munich
This scoreline reflects both Bayern’s offensive supremacy and their recent defensive trend of conceding. Bayern have scored 15 goals in their last three outings, while Leipzig have scored at a rate of 2.4 goals per match over their last ten home fixtures. Given that Bayern have conceded in four of their last five matches, a clean sheet for the leaders is unlikely against a side that averages over 16 shots per game.
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