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Stadio Olimpico under pressure: can Lazio flip crisis mood into control, or do Genoa’s grit drag this into chaos? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Lazio have won five of the last six meetings and kept four straight Serie A clean sheets against Genoa. With Lazio averaging under a goal per game and Genoa’s defensive errors, a low-scoring home win is the most probable outcome at the Olimpico.
Read Rationale ▾
Lazio’s 85.5% pass accuracy allows them to dictate terms against a Genoa side that is weak against through balls. Four consecutive league shutouts in this fixture suggest Lazio will maintain defensive control while doing enough at the other end to secure victory.
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Lazio vs Genoa Predictions and Best Bets
Lazio vs Genoa — bet365 Market Snapshot
Pricing shown below based on informational analysis. Markets and prices can change.
Lazio’s historical dominance and technical control place them as clear frontrunners in the match odds market.
Implied probabilities suggest a low-scoring victory for the hosts is the most frequent outcome in historical data.
Lazio’s scoring record of 21 in 22 matches points towards a tighter tactical contest.
- Lazio’s goal drought warning light: Lazio have scored 21 goals in 22 Serie A matches and have found the net in just 12 of their last 23 games overall.
- Genoa bring the punch, but they leak it too: Genoa have scored 31 goals in 25 games overall, yet they’ve conceded 36 — a profile that turns calm periods into sudden swings.
- One-sided recent history in this fixture: Lazio have won 5 of the last 6 meetings with Genoa across competitions, including four straight Serie A wins and four straight clean sheets in the league head-to-head.
Scoring Reliability: Average Goals Scored
Lazio and Genoa have produced similar scoring returns this season, pointing toward a balanced attacking outlook for both sides.
With 21 goals in 22 matches, their output is steady but lacks explosive volume.
Genoa have averaged slightly higher scoring returns with 25 goals in 22 appearances.
Battle in the Air: Aerial Wins per Match
Physicality vs Technicality: These numbers show the clash of styles between Genoa’s direct approach and Lazio’s ground-based play.
Genoa dominate the air, relying on physical presence to disrupt opposition defences.
Lazio prioritise technical passing on the deck over high aerial volume.
Friday night in Rome comes with edge, heat, and a bit of panic. Lazio and Genoa are only six points apart heading into Serie A matchday 23, but the mood couldn’t be more different. Lazio are ninth on 29 points and just stumbled to a 0-0 draw with Lecce — a result that sparked Maurizio Sarri into public criticism of his side’s ambition.
Genoa arrive 16th on 23 points, edging closer to safety, and their recent run has had bite: a 3-0 win over Cagliari, then 3-2 against Bologna, plus hard-earned draws in between.
Kick-off is 20:00 at Stadio Olimpico. Lazio need a response. Genoa would love another step away from trouble.
Team News & Lineups
Injuries/absences
- Lazio: P. Gabarrón Gil (muscular problems), S. Gigot (ankle surgery, until 31.01.2026), Nicolò Rovella (pubic bone irritation)
- Genoa: No injuries/suspensions listed.
Probable Lineups
Lazio (possible):
Provedel; Lazzari, Gila, Romagnoli, Marusic; Basic, Cataldi, Taylor; Cancellieri, Ratkov, Zaccagni
Genoa (possible):
Leali; Marcandalli, Ostigard, Vasquez; Norton-Cuffy, Frendrup, Malinovskyi, Ellertsson, Martin; Vitinha, Colombo
What it means
- If Rovella misses out, Lazio’s midfield build-up leans even harder on Danilo Cataldi and Toma Basic to keep the ball moving with rhythm rather than risk.
- Genoa’s setup screams wing traffic and service into the front two — but their own list of defensive weaknesses (through balls, set pieces, and errors) means one sloppy phase could cost them.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Lazio | Genoa |
|---|---|---|
| League position / points | 9th / 29 | 16th / 23 |
| Serie A goals (Apps) | 21 (22) | 25 (22) |
| Shots per game (Serie A) | 10.9 | 11.0 |
| Possession % (Serie A) | 50.8% | 46.7% |
| Pass accuracy (Serie A) | 85.5% | 78.7% |
| Aerials won (per game) | 12.5 | 18.1 |
| Clean sheets (overall block) | 12 | 5 |
This shapes a familiar storyline. Lazio want control — more possession, cleaner passing, calmer phases. Genoa look built for contest football — more aerial wins, more direct threat, more moments decided by duels. If Lazio can keep the ball and play through pressure, they can make Genoa defend for long stretches. If Genoa turn it into a physical, stop-start scrap, it becomes a battle of second balls and set-piece moments.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Lazio: possession with purpose, but the edge is blunt
Lazio’s numbers tell you they can play: 50.8% possession and a sharp 85.5% pass accuracy. That’s a side capable of controlling the pitch. They’re also strong at creating chances using through balls, and their game leans into short passes with the occasional punch of long shots.
The issue is what happens at the end of the move. Lazio are weak at finishing scoring chances, and the goal return backs up the frustration: 21 goals in 22 league matches. That’s why Sarri’s anger matters — control without ruthlessness keeps the pressure cooker on.
The likely route is down the left, with Mattia Zaccagni trying to pull defenders out of shape and Matteo Cancellieri arriving to shoot early. Lazio don’t have a single runaway scorer either: Cancellieri and Zaccagni top the league list with 3 each, so the goals need to come from collective movement, not one saviour.
Genoa: wing width, set-piece menace, and a taste for chaos
Genoa are comfortable in the trenches. They go long balls, they attempt crosses often, and they play with width — a setup that suits Leo Østigård attacking set pieces and delivering threat at both ends. He’s already got 4 league goals from defence and a 7.05 rating, which tells you he’s not just a header merchant — he’s a driver.
They also bring variety: Ruslan Malinovskyi has 3 goals and 3 assists, and Genoa are very strong from direct free kicks. That matters against a Lazio side that are weak in aerial duels. If Genoa win dead balls and hang around the box, they can turn one delivery into a serious moment.
Where the mismatch bites
- Lazio’s technical control vs Genoa’s pressing-and-duel approach.
- Genoa’s defensive list is a warning sign: weak against through balls, weak defending set pieces, and weak avoiding individual errors. Lazio don’t need fireworks — they need precision.
Key Moments to Watch
- Dead-ball danger: Lazio are strong at defending set pieces, but Genoa are very strong from direct free kicks and strong attacking set pieces. One foul in the wrong zone changes the whole script.
- Aerial battles in both boxes: Genoa win 18.1 aerials per game to Lazio’s 12.5. That’s not a detail — that’s a plan.
- Game state swings: Genoa are strong at coming back from losing positions, while Lazio are strong at protecting the lead. The first goal won’t end the story.
What could go wrong?
For Lazio, it’s the same trap: lots of neat football, not enough bite, and then one set-piece or long-shot moment knocks the air out of the stadium. For Genoa, it’s defensive fragility — through balls, wing defending, and errors are all soft spots, and Lazio’s best moments come when they cut quickly through the middle.
Best Bet for Lazio vs Genoa
Will the Stadio Olimpico Pressure Break the Deadlock?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| History | Lazio: 4 straight SA H2H clean sheets | Lazio Win to Nil |
| Scoring | Lazio: 21 goals in 22; Genoa: 25 in 22 | Under 2.5 Goals |
| Duels | Genoa: 18.1 aerials won; Lazio: 12.5 | Genoa Handicap |
| Control | Lazio: 85.5% pass accuracy | Lazio Win |
Lazio to Win & Under 2.5 Goals
Lazio approach matchday 23 under immense pressure to revitalise an attack that has been notably blunt this season. Despite their technical proficiency, evidenced by an 85.5% pass accuracy and a 50.8% possession average, they have only managed 21 goals in 22 matches. This means that while Lazio are capable of controlling the tempo and pitch, they lack the clinical edge to produce high-scoring blowouts.
Historically, this fixture is heavily dominated by the home side. Lazio have won five of their last six meetings with Genoa across all competitions. This dominance is defined by defensive discipline; Lazio have kept four consecutive clean sheets in Serie A head-to-head matches against Genoa. This historical trend is unlikely to break against a Genoa side that, despite being physical, averages just over one goal per game themselves.
Genoa’s tactical profile suggests they will turn this into a contested, physical battle. They win an impressive 18.1 aerial duels per game and rely heavily on crosses and set-pieces. However, Lazio’s structure has proven capable of neutralising such direct threats, as seen in their 12 total clean sheets. Genoa are also vulnerable to through balls and individual errors, which plays directly into Lazio’s preference for short, precise passing phases.
The combination of Lazio’s superior technical control and their historical defensive mastery over Genoa points to a narrow, professional victory. Genoa’s struggle to keep clean sheets—conceding 36 goals already—means Lazio will find an opening, but Lazio’s own finishing struggles ensure the goal count remains low. Expect a game of technical patience that rewards the home side’s discipline.
What could go wrong? Lazio’s lack of a primary goal threat is their biggest vulnerability. If Zaccagni or Cancellieri cannot find a breakthrough, the frustration at the Olimpico could mount. Genoa are very strong at attacking set-pieces and direct free-kicks; if Lazio concede a foul in a dangerous area, Leo Østigård or Ruslan Malinovskyi have the quality to punish them against the run of play.
Correct Score Lean
Lazio 2-0 Genoa This scoreline mirrors the statistical and tactical reality of both squads. Lazio’s ability to protect their lead is well-documented, and their four-game run of shutouts against Genoa in the league suggests they will prevent the visitors from scoring. Since Lazio are weak at finishing scoring chances but strong at creating them through technical build-up, a two-goal cushion represents their maximum likely output. Genoa’s tendency to commit individual defensive errors provides the opening Lazio need to secure a comfortable, if not explosive, result.
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