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Top-of-the-table tension at Tynecastle: can Hearts hold off Celtic’s possession machine? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Both sides boast high shot volumes, with Hearts averaging 14.3 and Celtic 16.9 per game. Celtic are very weak at stopping chances, and Hearts are strong at finishing. Given Tynecastle’s atmosphere and the stakes, offensive efficiency will outweigh defensive structure for both.
Read Rationale ▾
Hearts are unbeaten in 13 home matches, while Celtic dominate possession at 69.4%. This tug-of-war between Hearts’ aerial/set-piece strength and Celtic’s control points to a scoring stalemate where both teams find the net but fail to secure all three points.
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Hearts vs Celtic Predictions and Best Bets
Hearts vs Celtic — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
While Hearts’ home record is impeccable, pricing reflects Celtic’s dominance in possession and shot volume.
A competitive 1-1 draw is statistically supported as the most realistic outcome for this top-of-the-table clash.
High shot volumes for both sides (14.3 vs 16.9) make both teams finding the net a strong statistical likelihood.
- Top-two squeeze: Hearts lead the league with 50 points from 22 games (15 wins, 5 draws, 2 defeats), while Celtic sit second on 44 from 22—six points, one fixture, no margin for a sloppy start.
- Styles that clash loudly: Celtic average 69.4% possession and 16.9 shots per game, but Hearts still post 52.4% possession and 14.3 shots per game—this won’t be a simple “sit in and suffer” home performance.
- The clean-sheet edge: Hearts have kept a clean sheet in their last three Premiership games, and they’ve gone unbeaten in their last 13 home Premiership matches—exactly the sort of stubborn platform Celtic hate chasing.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Premiership Match
Both teams prioritize offensive pressure, with shot volumes indicating a match that will likely move into high-event territory.
Hearts maintain a high shot count while relying on strong finishing from central attackers.
Celtic’s nearly 70% possession allows them to sustain pressure and generate the highest shot volume in the league.
Physical Battle: Aerial Duels Won
Success in the air highlights Hearts’ ability to disrupt play and dominate from set-piece situations.
Their strength in the air makes them a massive threat during wide deliveries and defensive headers.
Celtic prefer the ball on the deck, which may leave them physically exposed during aerial contests.
First versus second at Tynecastle Park always feels like it has teeth, but this one bites harder. Hearts are top, Celtic are right behind them, and the table has made it personal: 50 points plays 44 with both on 22 matches.
Hearts’ recent rhythm screams momentum—four wins in their last six in all competitions listed here, plus three straight Premiership clean sheets. Celtic arrive with a more jagged set of results—three wins, one draw, two defeats across their last six—yet their identity is crystal clear: possession, short passes, and wing attacks, especially down the left.
Derek McInnes versus Martin O’Neill, Tynecastle under the winter air, and a game that could either widen the gap or drag the title race into a fistfight.
Team News & Lineups
Team News
- Hearts: Beni Baningime is suspended (red card) and unavailable until 02/02/2026.
Probable Lineups
Hearts (possible XI):
Schwolow; Steinwender, Halkett, Findlay, Milne; Altena, Spittal, Magnusson, Kyziridis; Braga, Kabore
Celtic (possible XI):
Schmeichel; Araujo, Trusty, Scales, Tierney; Engels, McGregor; Hyun-Jun, Hatate, Tounekti; Maeda
What it means
- Hearts missing Baningime strips away a defensive midfield option and a body who can bite into transitions. That raises the value of Devlin-type work—and makes Hearts’ positioning without the ball even more critical.
- Celtic’s shape looks built to keep the pitch wide and the ball moving quickly: Tierney plus the left-sided attackers can turn one overload into a wave.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Premiership) | Hearts | Celtic |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st | 2nd |
| Points (Games) | 50 (22) | 44 (22) |
| Record (W-D-L) | 15-5-2 | 14-2-6 |
| Goals For / Against | 42 / 17 | 39 / 21 |
| Shots per game | 14.3 | 16.9 |
| Possession | 52.4% | 69.4% |
| Pass success | 77.6% | 88.1% |
| Aerials won | 25.5 | 17.1 |
Hearts have the cleaner defensive profile—17 conceded—and the sharper league record. Celtic bring the ball-dominance: nearly 70% possession and elite passing security.
So the flow is obvious: Celtic will want the game played in Hearts territory, while Hearts will fancy their ability to win duels, attack set pieces, and land decisive punches without needing to monopolise the ball.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Celtic’s possession squeeze vs Hearts’ resistance
Celtic’s numbers shout control: 69.4% possession with 88.1% pass accuracy. That isn’t just “keep-ball”; it’s a platform to keep resetting attacks until the gap appears. Expect them to pin Hearts back with short passes, then speed it up with through balls and wing combinations.
Hearts, though, aren’t a passive top team. They still average 52.4% possession and 14.3 shots per game, and their style points to controlling territory high up the pitch rather than simply retreating. If Hearts can hold their nerve early, the crowd will feed every tackle, every interception, every forced turnover.
The wing threat: where Celtic can tilt the pitch
Celtic’s strengths lean heavily into wide attacking, with a stated focus on attacking down the left. That brings Tierney to the heart of it—productive too, with 3 goals and 4 assists in the league list here. If Hearts allow that left side to build momentum, Celtic can rack up dangerous attacks quickly—especially as their overall numbers show 3772 total attacks and 2171 dangerous attacks, both higher than Hearts.
Hearts’ counter is blunt and effective: win the duel, win the second ball, and turn it into a set-piece or a direct chance. They’re rated Very Strong at attacking set pieces and aerial duels, and that’s not fluffy praise when the team totals show 25.5 aerials won compared to Celtic’s 17.1.
Where Hearts can hurt them
Celtic carry a glaring soft spot: they are Very Weak at stopping opponents from creating chances. That matters at Tynecastle, where Hearts can turn broken play into shots quickly and keep pressure alive with set pieces and long-shot opportunities—another area they’re rated Very Strong in.
Then there’s the finishing edge. Hearts are rated Strong for finishing scoring chances, and they have two clear focal points: Lawrence Shankland (11 league goals) and Cláudio Braga (9). If Hearts can get those two receiving in the box—especially off second balls or crosses after switches of play—Celtic’s weakness becomes a neon sign.
The midfield engine room
Celtic’s likely midfield core—McGregor, Engels, and Hatate in support—looks designed to keep circulation clean and keep pressure constant. Hearts’ challenge is to stop those easy angles and avoid being pulled side-to-side until the passing lanes open.
Without Baningime, Hearts’ midfield screening becomes more about collective distances: squeeze the space, deny the easy turns, and make Celtic play in front of you rather than through you. If Hearts succeed, the match turns into a physical contest—exactly where their aerial strength and set-piece threat can swing momentum fast.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces at both ends: Hearts are rated Very Strong attacking set pieces and Strong defending them; Celtic are Strong defending set pieces. One well-delivered ball could decide a tight spell.
- The first goal timing battle: Hearts’ first goal average time is listed at 40′, Celtic’s at 38′. This has “edge of half” written all over it—stay switched on when legs and concentration dip.
- Discipline and duels: Hearts have 2 red cards and 46 yellows in the listed disciplinary totals; Celtic show 1 red and 56 yellows. Tynecastle can turn a 50–50 into a mood, and a mood into a booking.
What could go wrong?
If Hearts chase the ball in ones and twos, Celtic’s possession game can drag them out of shape and keep them defending for long stretches. But if Celtic over-commit and Hearts land early territory through duels and set pieces, the game can flip into a scrappy, emotional contest where one lapse—or one dominant aerial moment—changes everything.
Best Bet for Hearts vs Celtic
Can Hearts’ Stubborn Home Form Halt the Celtic Possession Machine?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Attack | Hearts 42 Goals; Celtic 39 Goals | Both Teams Score |
| Defensive | Celtic: Very Weak vs Chances | Hearts Over 0.5 |
| Aerials | Hearts 25.5; Celtic 17.1 | Back Set-Piece Goal |
| Home Form | Hearts 13 games unbeaten | Hearts +1 Handicap |
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Hearts enter this fixture as league leaders, holding 50 points and a formidable reputation at Tynecastle Park. Their offensive output of 42 goals is powered by clinical finishers like Lawrence Shankland and Cláudio Braga. Because the side is rated very strong at attacking set pieces and aerial duels—winning an average of 25.5 per game—they possess the specific tools needed to bypass Celtic’s possession-heavy setup.
Celtic arrive with an identity built on total control, averaging 69.4% possession and 16.9 shots per match. While they dominate territory, their defensive profile is fragile; they are very weak at stopping opponents from creating chances. This vulnerability is a critical factor at Tynecastle, where the home crowd amplifies every turnover and set-piece opportunity. Celtic’s focus on wide attacking down the left via Kieran Tierney creates significant goal-scoring threat but often leaves gaps for efficient counter-attacking teams.
The statistical overlap between Hearts’ strong finishing and Celtic’s weak chance prevention means the hosts are highly likely to find the net. Conversely, Celtic’s sheer volume of 2,171 dangerous attacks this season ensures they rarely go 90 minutes without scoring. Both teams typically find their first goal around the 38-to-40-minute mark, suggesting a game that opens up late in the first half. Given the high-stakes nature of this title clash, both managers will prioritize attacking phases to secure the three points, leading to a high-probability “Both Teams to Score” scenario.
What could go wrong?
A disciplined defensive masterclass from Hearts could see them sit deep and protect their lead, resulting in a low-scoring 1-0 win for either side. If Celtic’s possession hits 75% or higher, they may effectively “defend with the ball,” starving Hearts of the service required to get Shankland into the box.
Correct Score Lean
Hearts 1-1 Celtic
This outcome balances Hearts’ unbeaten 13-game home streak with Celtic’s superior passing accuracy of 88.1%. Hearts have the defensive resilience, shown by three consecutive clean sheets, to prevent a Celtic rout. However, Celtic’s persistent attacking pressure usually forces at least one breakthrough. A 1-1 draw reflects a game where Hearts use their aerial superiority to score from a set piece while Celtic use their possession dominance to manufacture a goal through short-passing combinations.
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