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Can Wolfsburg’s offside trap and through-ball threat survive Bayern’s wave at the Allianz Arena? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Bayern Munich are heavy favorites with 13 wins from 15 games and a record-breaking 55 goals scored. Their attacking metrics are peerless, but they have shown defensive vulnerability, including a recent 2-2 home draw against Mainz. Wolfsburg have a specific knack for scoring in this fixture, having done so in eight consecutive meetings. Given Bayern’s weakness in aerial duels and Wolfsburg’s strength in set pieces and through balls, the visitors are well-placed to score even in defeat. This market offers far better value than the outright home win.
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A 3-1 scoreline reflects Bayern’s average of 3.67 goals per game while accounting for their recent lack of clean sheets at the Allianz Arena. Wolfsburg have conceded 28 goals this season and are especially weak at defending the wings where Bayern's Olise and Díaz excel. However, Wolfsburg’s ability to create chances through individual skill and direct free kicks should see them beat a Bayern defense that is prone to individual errors. This scoreline captures the expected territorial dominance of the hosts and the visitors' historical scoring trend.
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Bayern Munich vs Wolfsburg Predictions and Best Bets
Bayern vs Wolfsburg — bet365 Market Snapshot
Market snapshots and illustrative probabilities for the Bundesliga clash at the Allianz Arena.
Pricing reflects Bayern’s dominant 41-point tally and the fact they have not lost at home to Wolfsburg in 28 straight games.
Bayern’s average of 3.67 goals per game suggests high-scoring scorelines are the most likely outcomes at the Allianz.
With Wolfsburg scoring in 8 straight vs Bayern and the hosts hitting 55 goals, a high-event game is expected.
- Bayern sit on 41 points and have scored 55 goals in 15 Bundesliga matches, while Wolfsburg are 14th on 15 points after conceding 28 in 15.
- Harry Kane has 19 Bundesliga goals in 13 starts and two substitute appearances, with Michael Olise adding 7 goals and 8 assists from the attacking band.
- Bayern are unbeaten in 28 consecutive home games against Wolfsburg in all competitions, yet Wolfsburg have scored at least once in the last eight Bundesliga clashes.
Match Tempo: Average Goals per League Game
A comparison of offensive output shows a significant gap in scoring power between the two sides.
With 55 goals in 15 games, the hosts are currently the most prolific attack in the Bundesliga.
Wolfsburg have struggled defensively, conceding 28 goals so far in their league campaign.
Territorial Control: Average Ball Possession
Possession metrics highlight the tactical gap expected between these two Bundesliga teams.
Bayern control nearly 70% of the ball, forcing opponents to defend for long periods.
Wolfsburg spend the majority of games without the ball, relying on through balls to break out.
Bayern Munich are back at the Allianz Arena on Sunday with the table looking exactly how they like it: 41 points on the board, nine clear of second-placed Borussia Dortmund, and 55 league goals already. Wolfsburg arrive in 14th on 15 points, still trying to swallow a wild 4-3 defeat to Freiburg on December 20 that sent them into the winter break with another reminder of how quickly their games can spin.
It’s a classic Bundesliga contrast in mood and method. Bayern come into this with a run of results that reads like a highlight reel: wins away at Union Berlin (3-2), Stuttgart (5-0) and Heidenheim (4-0), plus a 3-1 Champions League win over Sporting CP, with the only recent blot a 2-2 draw at home to Mainz 05. Wolfsburg’s recent run has been choppier: a 3-1 win over Union Berlin, a 3-1 win at Borussia M’gladbach, a 1-1 draw at Eintracht Frankfurt, and defeats either side of that — including the 4-3 loss to Freiburg.
Even before you get into the detail, the meeting point is obvious: Bayern play most of their football in the opposition half, Wolfsburg spend plenty of theirs in their own. That’s a lot of green grass Bayern want to own, and a lot of defensive decision-making Wolfsburg will have to get right.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Bayern’s likely XI has Manuel Neuer in goal behind a back four of Konrad Laimer, Dayot Upamecano, Jonathan Tah and Josip Stanisic. The double pivot looks set to be Aleksandar Pavlovic and Leon Goretzka, with Michael Olise, Serge Gnabry and Luis Díaz supporting Harry Kane.
There’s a clear attacking logic to that set-up. Kane leads a front line where the supply is constant: Olise has 7 goals and 8 assists in the league, Díaz has 8 goals and 6 assists, and Gnabry has 4 goals and 5 assists despite fewer starts. It’s not just about names, either; Bayern’s own profile is built on possession football, short passing, frequent through balls and control in the opposition half, with a noted emphasis on attacking down the right.
On the availability front, Joshua Kimmich is listed with ankle problems, Jamal Musiala with a broken fibula, and Sacha Boey as ill. Nicolas Jackson is listed as called up to the national team until 19.01.2026.
Wolfsburg’s likely XI is headed by Kamil Grabara in goal. The back line is Saël Kumbedi, Jenson Seelt, Konstantinos Koulierakis and Aaron Zehnter. The midfield pairing is Yannick Gerhardt and Maximilian Arnold, with Christian Eriksen, Lovro Majer and Patrick Wimmer in the line behind the striker.
That midfield band tells you how Wolfsburg want to play. Arnold brings control and bite, Eriksen brings passing and set-piece craft, Majer can link and slip runners through, and Wimmer gives them directness. Wolfsburg’s stated style leans into attacking through the middle, attempting through balls often, taking long shots, and playing an offside trap — all while spending a lot of time in their own half. They also stick to a consistent first eleven, which matters when the opponent is known for rotating.
How the Match Could Be Played
This match sets up like a territorial argument Bayern are determined to win early. With Bayern averaging 68.3% possession in the Bundesliga and completing passes at 90.3%, the first question is how long Wolfsburg can keep the ball away from them at all. Wolfsburg sit at 45.4% possession and 79.7% pass completion in the league; that gap isn’t cosmetic. It’s the difference between building with options and building with exits.
Bayern’s likely approach is familiar: camp in the opposition half, shift the ball quickly through short combinations, and use through balls to turn a defensive line that’s constantly checking shoulders. Olise, Gnabry and Díaz give them three different routes to the same destination. Olise can receive between the lines and slide passes into Kane’s feet. Gnabry can threaten the space behind once the centre-backs step out. Díaz can isolate a full-back and force help, which opens gaps elsewhere. With Pavlovic and Goretzka underneath, Bayern can keep recycling attacks until Wolfsburg’s shape bends.
Wolfsburg’s defensive weaknesses line up awkwardly against Bayern’s strengths. Wolfsburg are weak at defending against attacks down the wings and weak at defending set pieces; Bayern are very strong at attacking down the wings and strong at defending set pieces. That’s a double squeeze: Bayern can push wide to create chances, then punish the moments when Wolfsburg finally concede territory and start giving away corners and wide free kicks.
When Wolfsburg do break out, they’ll try to make it count quickly. Their profile leans on through balls and long shots, and they’re labelled strong at creating chances using through balls and strong from direct free kicks. That’s the classic route for an under-pressure side at the Allianz: win a foul, swing it in, or clip one pass through the first press and suddenly Bayern’s centre-backs are running towards their own goal.
There’s also a fascinating clash of “bad habits”. Bayern are listed as weak at avoiding offside and rely on through balls often — the exact scenario where Wolfsburg’s offside trap becomes a real weapon if the timing is right. The risk for Wolfsburg is that if their line is even half a step late, Bayern’s movement turns that trap into a gift.
In transition, Bayern’s counter-attacks are labelled very strong, and their finishing is very strong. That matters against a Wolfsburg side that are very weak at protecting the lead and have been conceding regularly. If Wolfsburg open the game up chasing moments, Bayern’s next wave becomes brutal: win it back, one or two vertical passes, and Kane is already in the picture.
The individual duels almost pick themselves. Kane versus Seelt and Koulierakis is about whether Wolfsburg can stop the ball into feet without panicking. Olise and Gnabry arriving around Kane is about whether Wolfsburg’s midfield pair can hold position without sinking too deep. Out wide, Bayern’s emphasis down the right brings Kumbedi into a long afternoon of defending timing and angles, while Zehnter will have to deal with Díaz’s dribbling and repeated 1v1s. Wolfsburg’s most obvious attacking hope sits with Arnold, Eriksen and Majer trying to thread one clean pass through the middle and force Bayern to defend facing their own goal.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Bayern’s league record is domination in plain sight: 15 matches, 55 goals scored and only 11 conceded. That’s 3.67 goals scored per league match and 0.73 conceded, which means opponents need near-perfect spells just to keep the scoreline respectable, never mind take points.
The chance-creation volume backs it up. Bayern are taking 19.7 shots per Bundesliga game, with 71% of those efforts coming from inside the box. That’s not hopeful shooting; that’s sustained pressure ending in the areas you actually score from. Wolfsburg are on 12 shots per game in the league, and their defensive record reads 28 conceded in 15 — 1.87 per match — the sort of number that gets ugly quickly when you’re spending long periods without the ball.
Even the rhythm stats point to the same pattern. Across the listed totals, Bayern average 677.83 passes per game with 65% ball possession, while Wolfsburg sit at 423.29 passes per game and 48% possession in the same section. If those patterns hold, Wolfsburg will spend long stretches defending, then have to be ruthless with the few attacks they get.
Then there’s the scoring streaks and trends that shape the psychology. Bayern have gone 28 straight home games against Wolfsburg without a defeat in all competitions, and they haven’t lost to Wolfsburg in 35 of the last 36 meetings in all competitions. Wolfsburg, though, have scored at least once in their last eight Bundesliga clashes with Bayern. That combination creates a very specific match feel: Bayern expecting to win the territory battle, Wolfsburg believing they can land a punch even while getting pushed back.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first big “moment” is how Wolfsburg handle Bayern’s early wave. Bayern’s average first goal time is listed at 31 minutes, which means they don’t need chaos to score; they just need you to keep defending until you don’t. Wolfsburg’s job is to survive the first cycle of pressure without conceding cheap set pieces, because Bayern are strong at protecting a lead once they get it.
The second is the offside chess match. Bayern’s through-ball habit and weakness at avoiding offside meets Wolfsburg’s offside trap. If Wolfsburg step up in sync, they can break Bayern’s rhythm and steal a few stoppages. If they mistime it, Kane and the runners either side of him are in the box before anyone can reset.
Third, watch the wide areas. Wolfsburg are weak defending attacks down the wings and weak defending set pieces; Bayern are very strong down the wings and strong at defending set pieces. That’s the pathway to a match where Wolfsburg feel fine for five minutes, then suddenly they’re defending a corner, then another, then a recycled attack, then another delivery.
Finally, keep an eye on the moments Wolfsburg do get around Bayern’s press. Wolfsburg’s strengths include direct free kicks and through balls, and Bayern’s weaknesses include stopping opponents from creating chances and aerial duels being very weak. One clean through ball, one well-won free kick, one good delivery — those are the chances to flip a game that otherwise feels like it’s being played on a slope.
What could go wrong with this read? Football loves a messy storyline. A single individual error can warp an entire tactical plan, and Bayern themselves are listed as weak at avoiding individual errors. Add in Wolfsburg’s recent habit of games swinging wildly — a 4-3 loss to Freiburg doesn’t happen in a quiet afternoon — and fine margins can turn “control” into “scramble” fast.
Best Bet for Bayern Munich vs Wolfsburg
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Bayern Munich to win and both teams to score
Bayern Munich enter this fixture as the most prolific attacking force in the division, having already netted 55 league goals this season. Averaging 3.67 goals per game, they rely on a dominant possession-based style (68.3%) that pinpoints weaknesses in opposition shapes through constant through balls and an emphasis on right-sided attacks. Wolfsburg, sitting in 14th, are particularly vulnerable in these areas, as they are weak at defending wing-play and set pieces—two categories where Bayern are ranked as very strong.
However, the logic for both teams to score is rooted in persistent patterns. Despite their dominance, Bayern have conceded in recent home outings, notably in a 2-2 draw with Mainz 05. They are also ranked as weak in aerial duels and in stopping opponents from creating chances. Wolfsburg have proven they can exploit such lapses; they have scored at least once in each of their last eight Bundesliga meetings with Bayern. Furthermore, Wolfsburg’s current profile highlights a strength in creating chances via through balls and direct free kicks, exactly the type of situations that test Bayern’s high defensive line and tendency to commit individual errors.
Wolfsburg’s recent form also points toward high-scoring volatility, coming off a 4-3 defeat to Freiburg. While Bayern’s finishing and counter-attacks are labeled as very strong, their defensive focus can waver when they are camping in the opposition half. Given that Bayern have not lost a home game against Wolfsburg in 28 attempts but Wolfsburg consistently find the net in this specific matchup, the most justified outcome is a home victory where the visitors manage to capitalize on a set piece or a counter-attacking moment.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to this selection is a perfect defensive performance from Bayern’s back four, which features the physical presence of Dayot Upamecano and Jonathan Tah. If Bayern maintain 70% possession and successfully utilize their offside trap to neutralize Wolfsburg’s through-ball attempts, the visitors may struggle to register a single shot on target. Additionally, if Wolfsburg’s defensive line mistimes their own offside trap early, the game could become a one-sided rout where the visitors lose confidence and stop attacking entirely.
Correct score lean
Bayern Munich 3-1 Wolfsburg
This scoreline aligns with Bayern’s average of over three goals per game and their record of scoring at least twice in their last 23 Bundesliga matches. Defensively, Wolfsburg concede nearly two goals per game (1.87) and are very weak at protecting leads, meaning even if they score first, they are likely to be overwhelmed by Bayern’s superior finishing. Since Wolfsburg have a long-standing streak of scoring against Bayern and the hosts have kept only two clean sheets in their last five, a consolation goal for the visitors is highly probable in a comfortable home win.
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