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Day 7 Heating Up in Melbourne
The Australian Open enters Day 7 with the heat truly arriving in Melbourne. Temperatures are forecast to reach a stifling 37C, drastically changing the court conditions. Shocks have been rare in the men’s draw so far, but as the leading lights like Jannik Sinner and Novak Djokovic march on, the intensity of the matchups is increasing.
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The extreme heat (37C) will make the courts faster and higher bouncing, favoring big servers. Both Shelton and Vacherot have served 15+ aces in every round so far. In their previous H2H, they hit 14 aces each. We expect a serve-dominated contest with few breaks, pushing the ace count comfortably over the line.
Ben Shelton vs Valentin Vacherot Predictions
Ben Shelton, a semi-finalist at last season’s Australian Open, has returned to Melbourne Park in formidable shape. His routine wins over the dangerous Ugo Humbert and home talent Dane Sweeny demonstrate that the American is dialled in. However, despite the straight-set victories, he needed two tiebreaks to bypass Humbert, proving that while his serve is impenetrable, he can be dragged into deep sets.
Standing across the net is the late bloomer Valentin Vacherot. While this is only his second main draw appearance at a Grand Slam, the 27-year-old from Monaco is playing the tennis of his life. He proved his credentials with a surprise title triumph in Shanghai last October, taking down giants like Holger Rune and Novak Djokovic. Vacherot is unlikely to go down without a serious fight.
The Data: Why We Back the Aces
The heat truly arrives at the Australian Open on Saturday. With temperatures forecast to reach as high as 37C, the dynamics of the court change significantly. The surface becomes quicker and produces a higher bounce than we have seen in the opening week. These conditions are a paradise for big servers, reducing the effectiveness of the return game and increasing the likelihood of hold-dominated sets.
Key Stats:
- Shelton’s Serve: Ben Shelton has racked up 1,840 career aces and boasts an 87% service game win rate. He has been broken just twice in this tournament and didn’t face a single break point against Dane Sweeny.
- Vacherot’s Resilience: The man from Monaco has lost his serve only once in two rounds. He has racked up 33 aces in wins over Martin Damm Jr and Rinky Hijikata.
- Consistency: Crucially for this bet, both players have served 15+ aces in each round so far, despite playing exclusively three-set matches.
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Head-to-Head Analysis
In the pair’s only previous meeting, which took place on the Challenger Tour in Las Vegas in 2022, the match was a serving clinic. They played two tie-breaks before Shelton edged home 6-4 in the third set. Most importantly, each player served 14 aces that day. Since that clash, Vacherot has improved significantly, particularly on his first delivery.
Given the scorching forecast and the form of both men, a similar—if not higher—ace count is highly probable. William Hill is offering 5/2 on both players hitting over 14 aces. Considering their current numbers and the fast conditions, this looks like excellent value for a match likely to feature at least one, if not two, tie-breaks.
Other Day 7 Observations
Elsewhere on Day 7, Karolina Pliskova faces Madison Keys. Pliskova, the former world number one, has posted decent wins over Sloane Stephens and Janice Tjen. While she isn’t the force she once was, she still holds serve well.
Keys is yet to drop a set but has shown vulnerability, with her unforced error count already hitting 63 across two matches. Pliskova has the ability to fight power with power and has a 5.5 game handicap start that looks appealing given Keys’ tendency for error-strewn performances.
Australian Open FAQs
When is the 2026 Australian Open?
The main draw runs from Sunday, January 18 to Sunday, February 1, 2026.
Where can I watch the Australian Open in the UK?
TNT Sports and Discovery+ are the exclusive broadcasters. Every match is available to stream live on Discovery+.
Who are the favourites?
Jannik Sinner is the 4-5 favourite to win a third consecutive title, with Carlos Alcaraz at 15-8. In the women’s draw, Aryna Sabalenka leads the market at 6-4.
