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The bottom half of the draw takes center stage on Day 5 at Melbourne Park. With defending champion Jannik Sinner and top seed Iga Swiatek headlining the action, betting opportunities are plentiful. Our focus for the best value of the day lands squarely on the clash between the surging Tomas Machac and the struggling Stefanos Tsitsipas.
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Tomas Machac arrives as the Adelaide champion on a six-match winning streak, having dismantled Grigor Dimitrov in straight sets. Conversely, Stefanos Tsitsipas has slipped to a ranking of 35 and struggled significantly against Mochizuki in round one. Machac’s current form makes him the clear value selection to upset the former finalist.
Tomas Machac vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Analysis
Stefanos Tsitsipas has a rich history at the Australian Open, including a run to the final in 2023, but his recent trajectory is concerning. The Greek star has slipped down to 35th in the world rankings and entered this tournament having failed to progress beyond the second round in his previous six Grand Slam appearances.
In stark contrast, Tomas Machac is playing the best tennis of his career. The Czech world number 24 arrives in Melbourne fresh off a title success in Adelaide, where he defeated high-caliber opponents like Tommy Paul and Ugo Humbert.
Why We Are Backing Machac
The first round performances of both players paint a vivid picture of their current levels. Tsitsipas was forced to dig deep, coming from a set down to eventually beat Shintaro Mochizuki in four sets. He looked vulnerable, continuing a pattern of inconsistency that plagued his 2025 season.
Machac, however, was ruthless. He eased to a straight-sets victory (6-4, 6-4, 6-3) over the dangerous Grigor Dimitrov. Winning 80% of his service games in 2026 so far, Machac is serving with authority and playing with the confidence of a man on a six-match winning streak.
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Other Australian Open Day 5 Tips
While the Machac upset is our standout selection, the women’s draw also offers interesting angles on Day 5.
Two-time champion Naomi Osaka looked rusty in her opener, committing 44 unforced errors against Antonia Ruzic. Sorana Cirstea has won ten of her last 13 matches and has the consistency to exploit Osaka’s current frailties. We expect Cirstea to win at least a set.
Jelena Ostapenko snapped a six-match losing streak with a solid win over Rebecca Sramkova. Her high-risk, high-reward style was clicking, with winners eclipsing unforced errors. Wang, who has struggled in recent Slams, may find the Latvian’s power too much to handle.
Australian Open FAQs
When is the 2026 Australian Open?
The main draw runs from Sunday, January 18 to Sunday, February 1, 2026.
Where can I watch the Australian Open in the UK?
TNT Sports and Discovery+ are the exclusive broadcasters. Every match is available to stream live on Discovery+.
Who are the favourites?
Jannik Sinner is the favorite to defend his title, followed closely by Carlos Alcaraz. In the women’s draw, Aryna Sabalenka and Iga Swiatek lead the betting markets.
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