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Can Jared Goff deliver a Christmas miracle to save Detroit’s season?
The NFL’s Christmas Day triple-header concludes with a high-stakes NFC North showdown that carries the weight of a playoff elimination game for the visiting Detroit Lions. Read on for our best betting tips for this match.
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NFL betting tips: Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings predictions
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With the running game largely ineffective and the season on the line, Detroit has no option but to put the game in Jared Goff’s hands. His recent string of 300-yard performances demonstrates he can handle the volume, and the "win-at-all-costs" game script should ensure he keeps throwing until the final whistle.
- Jared Goff has eclipsed 300 passing yards in three consecutive games (364, 338, 309).
- Detroit ranks 3rd in the NFL for total passing yards this season (4,036).
- The Lions have failed to produce a 100-yard rusher since Week 12.
Lions vs Vikings — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with odds based on our Christmas Day matchup analysis.
Despite their recent stumble against Pittsburgh, the Lions are heavily favoured to keep their playoff hopes alive against the eliminated Vikings.
The market expects Detroit to win by more than a touchdown, reflecting the urgency of their playoff scenario.
With Detroit’s passing volume high and Minnesota’s QB situation uncertain, the points line is set tightly at 43.5.
Goff’s recent high-yardage form and Amon-Ra’s target share drive the prop markets for the Lions’ must-win game.
When the Lions take the field at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis for this 9:30pm GMT kickoff, they will be fighting for their postseason lives in front of a national audience. The festive atmosphere inside the dome will contrast sharply with the grim reality facing Detroit head coach Dan Campbell and his squad: at 8-7, there is no more margin for error.
Air Supremacy: Goff’s Passing Volume
Detroit’s reliance on the passing game has intensified, with Jared Goff posting huge numbers in recent weeks to keep the offence moving.
Only two other quarterbacks have thrown for more yards this season, highlighting Goff as the central engine of the Lions’ attack.
Goff has eclipsed the 300-yard mark in consecutive games against Pittsburgh, the Rams, and Dallas.
Tactical Contrast: Ground Struggles vs Air Defence
The Lions’ inability to run the ball forces them into the air, but they face a formidable Vikings secondary in this matchup.
Detroit has not had a single rusher break the century mark since late November, putting immense pressure on the passing attack.
Minnesota boasts a top-tier secondary, setting up a strength-on-strength battle against Goff’s high-volume air attack.
Detroit enters this Week 17 contest reeling from a brutal 29-24 home defeat to the Pittsburgh Steelers—a result that pushed their playoff aspirations to the brink. Having lost two straight games and six of their last ten, the Lions have looked a shadow of the dominant force that captured the NFC’s top seed just a year ago. The equation now is punishingly simple: they likely need to win out and receive significant help from other results to avoid a premature vacation. A loss on Christmas Day would effectively extinguish their hopes, making this arguably the most critical sixty minutes of their 2025 campaign.
Standing in their way are the Minnesota Vikings, a team moving in the opposite direction. Although already eliminated from playoff contention at 7-8, the Vikings have found a late-season rhythm, winning three consecutive games to salvage pride and play the role of ultimate spoiler. However, their preparation has been clouded by significant uncertainty under centre. Rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy left last week’s victory over the Giants with a hand injury, and while reports suggest he has a decent chance to play, his “questionable” status looms large. If the Michigan product cannot go, Minnesota will turn to backup Max Brosmer, whose previous exposure to NFL action resulted in a four-interception nightmare against Seattle.
This uncertainty creates a volatile tactical landscape. If McCarthy plays, Detroit faces a confident rival eager to sweep the season series after a narrow 31-29 victory earlier in the year. If Brosmer starts, the dynamic shifts entirely. Yet, regardless of who takes the snaps for the Vikings, the pressure falls squarely on Detroit’s shoulders. They must find a way to conquer their divisional demons and a hostile crowd to keep their season alive into Week 18.
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Jared Goff 300+ Passing Yards at 7/2
The logic for backing Detroit’s aerial attack is rooted in the extreme imbalance of their current offensive identity. While the Lions as a collective have struggled to close out games, quarterback Jared Goff has been statistically relentless. He enters this pivotal matchup ranked third in the NFL for passing yards, having already amassed 4,036 through 15 games. This is not a quarterback managing a game; he is carrying the entire system.
The most compelling evidence for this selection lies in Goff’s recent usage rates. In his last three contests, he has been asked to shoulder an immense workload, and the production has followed suit. He threw for 364 yards on 54 attempts in the loss to Pittsburgh, 338 yards against the Rams, and 309 yards in the shootout win over Dallas. Surpassing the 300-yard threshold has become a weekly occurrence, driven by necessity rather than choice.
This heavy reliance on the pass is a direct consequence of a running game that has completely stalled. The numbers here paint a worrying picture for Detroit’s backfield: the team has not produced a 100-yard rusher since Week 12. In five of their last six outings, their leading ball carrier has failed to eclipse 60 yards. With the ground attack offering little resistance, the Lions have been forced to abandon balance and trust Goff’s arm to move the chains. Additionally, with wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown listed as an injury doubt with a knee issue, the passing volume may be distributed even more broadly, forcing Goff to scan the field and extend plays. Given the desperation of the situation—win or go home—it is highly probable that Detroit will keep the throttle down for four quarters, giving Goff ample opportunity to reach this yardage milestone again.
What could go wrong?
The primary risk to this projection is the quality of the opposition’s defense. The Vikings currently boast the third-ranked pass defense in the NFL in terms of yards allowed. In their previous meeting this season, Minnesota held Goff to 284 passing yards—respectable, but just short of the 300-yard mark required here. Furthermore, if J.J. McCarthy is ruled out and the inexperienced Max Brosmer struggles, Detroit could find themselves in a positive game script with a comfortable lead, which might encourage them to run the clock down rather than push the ball downfield in the fourth quarter.
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