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Is the era of Kansas City dominance finally over, or can the ghost of Christmases past haunt Denver once more?
The final game of the NFL’s Christmas Day schedule sees the script flipped in almost unimaginable fashion as the Denver Broncos travel to GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium to face a Kansas City Chiefs side in freefall. Read on for our best betting tips for this match.
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NFL betting tips: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs predictions
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The injury crisis at quarterback has left Kansas City unable to compete. Denver needs this win for playoff positioning and will likely relish the chance to deliver a blowout victory against their historic tormentors.
- The Chiefs gained only 9 first downs and 133 total yards in their Week 16 loss to the Titans.
- The Broncos have won 11 of their last 12 games, sitting at 12-3 overall.
- Tennessee rushed for 154 yards against the Chiefs’ defence last week (Pollard 102, Spears 52).
Broncos vs Chiefs — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
With Kansas City’s quarterback situation in tatters, the Broncos are heavy favourites to secure the win at Arrowhead Stadium.
The double-digit spread reflects the gulf in class between the 12-win Broncos and an injury-ravaged Chiefs side.
The market is split on the total, balancing Denver’s scoring potential against Kansas City’s likely offensive struggles.
Harvey and Sutton are expected to lead the charge for a Denver offence looking to bounce back.
Kickoff is set for 1.15am GMT (Thursday morning), and for UK viewers staying up late, the contest presents a surreal inversion of the AFC West’s recent history. For years, this fixture has been a procession for the Chiefs, a bi-annual reminder of the gap between a dynasty and a rebuilding franchise. Yet, as Week 17 arrives, the once-mighty hosts are 6-9, battered by injury, and staring down the barrel of a fifth consecutive defeat.
Offensive Collapse: Chiefs vs Titans
Last week’s performance against a 2-12 Titans team highlighted just how broken the Chiefs’ offence is without Mahomes and Minshew.
Managing fewer than 150 yards against one of the league’s weaker teams signals deep trouble for the third-string-led unit.
Single-digit first downs is a rare low for any NFL team, underscoring their inability to sustain drives.
Season Trajectory: A Tale of Two Teams
While the Chiefs are in freefall, the Broncos have established themselves as one of the AFC’s premier contenders.
Denver remains in the hunt for the AFC’s top seed, having won 11 of their last 12 games.
The defending conference champions have lost four straight games, seeing their season unravel completely.
The atmosphere in Missouri will likely be somber rather than celebratory. The Chiefs, who have represented the AFC in the Super Bowl in five of the last six seasons, have seen their campaign disintegrate in harrowing fashion. First, they lost superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes to a torn ACL, a blow that effectively derailed their title defence.
Then, in a cruel twist last week, backup Gardner Minshew suffered what appeared to be the same injury after throwing just eight passes. This leaves the reins in the hands of third-string quarterback Chris Oladokun, who faces the unenviable task of leading a broken offence against one of the league’s premier teams.
In contrast, the Denver Broncos arrive with a 12-3 record and everything to play for. Despite seeing their impressive 11-game winning streak snapped by the Jacksonville Jaguars last Sunday, Denver remains firmly in the hunt for the AFC’s number one seed and the crucial bye week that comes with it. Head coach Sean Payton’s side has been ruthlessly efficient for much of the season, and the opportunity to kick a rival while they are down will not be lost on them.
Since Mahomes was drafted, this rivalry has been “wholly one-sided,” a decade of frustration for the Broncos that they are now poised to exorcise. The visitors are double-figure favourites on the road—a scenario that would have been laughable twelve months ago but now feels entirely justified given the contrasting trajectories of these two franchises.
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Denver Broncos -12.5 to win
The handicap for this game is undeniably large for a divisional clash, but the gulf in quality and motivation between these two rosters is currently a chasm. The primary driver for backing Denver to cover the -12.5 spread is the utter collapse of the Kansas City offence, which has ceased to function at an NFL standard.
Last week’s performance against the Tennessee Titans was a sobering exhibition of how far the Chiefs have fallen. Facing a 2-12 Titans team that had struggled all year, the Chiefs managed to gain just nine first downs and 133 total yards of offence. With Chris Oladokun under centre, the passing game evaporated; even star weapons like Travis Kelce (one catch for six yards) and Xavier Worthy (two catches for 41 yards) were rendered invisible. Oladokun, a three-year bench warmer, showed little ability to move the chains, and there is no reason to expect a dramatic improvement on a short week against a far superior Denver defence.
Defensively, the Chiefs have also begun to fracture. While they had remained competent earlier in the season, the constant pressure of supporting a non-existent offence has taken its toll. Against Tennessee, they surrendered nearly 400 total yards (376 to be exact), allowing the Titans to rush for over 150 yards combined. Tony Pollard tore through them for 102 yards on 21 carries, while Tyjae Spears added another 52 yards. If a two-win Titans team can dominate the trenches and dictate proceedings so thoroughly, a 12-win Broncos outfit should feast.
Denver will be looking to “exact some pain” after their own recent setback. Their 34-20 loss to Jacksonville was a shock, characterized by uncharacteristic turnovers from quarterback Bo Nix, including an interception and a fumble. However, that result should sharpen their focus. With the Los Angeles Chargers chasing them in the AFC West, the Broncos cannot afford another slip. Their offence, featuring key contributors like Sutton and Harvey, has been resilient all year, and they will likely view Oladokun’s presence as an invitation to play aggressively on defence, forcing turnovers and short fields that will help them clear this handicap comfortably.
What could go wrong?
The biggest risk to this wager is the unpredictable nature of divisional rivalries and the potential for Denver to play conservatively. On a short week following a physical loss to Jacksonville, the Broncos might prioritize simply winning the game rather than running up the score. If Denver’s offence struggles to find rhythm early—as they did last week when converting only 5 of 14 third downs—the Chiefs’ defence might hang around long enough to keep the margin within single digits. Additionally, Arrowhead Stadium remains a difficult venue, and pride can be a powerful motivator for professional athletes, even in a lost season.
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