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Fenerbahce vs Besiktas: Elite chance creation meets the league’s tightest defence. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Fenerbahce’s high chance creation rate and seven league goals despite key absences suggest they will score. Besiktas’s recent six-goal match and seven goals scored overall indicate they can also find the net, making Both Teams To Score a credible pick in this derby.
A 2-1 win fits Fenerbahce’s strong chance creation and recent scoring form, while Besiktas’ attack and defensive absences suggest conceding once is likely. Recent derby results support a decisive outcome, making this a well-founded exact score prediction.
Compare form, H2H, goals trends and key data for Fenerbahçe v Beşiktaş.
Fenerbahce and Besiktas reach Saturday’s Istanbul derby level on six points, but through noticeably different routes.
Fenerbahce vs Besiktas — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Fenerbahce and Besiktas arrive with similar form, leaving fine margins likely to decide the result.
Fenerbahce carry the stronger scoring threat, but Besiktas must contribute for BTTS to land.
Fenerbahce and Besiktas look closely matched defensively, pointing towards a tight scoreline.
Fenerbahce and Besiktas show similar overall levels, making execution more important than raw form.
Three Punchy Stats
- Fenerbahce have generated 7.42 xG from their first three league matches, an average of 2.47 per game. That attacking output now runs directly into the Super Lig’s lowest xGA defence.
- Besiktas have conceded only 1.31 xGA in league play, even though three goals have gone in. Their defensive numbers suggest opponents have generally struggled to create high-quality chances.
- Both teams have scored seven league goals and collected six points from three matches. The similarity in results disguises a sharper contrast beneath them: Fenerbahce’s edge lies in chance creation, Besiktas’ in limiting it.
Scoring Frequency
Recent attacking records for Fenerbahce and Besiktas are shown below.
Clean Sheet Frequency
Recent defensive records for Fenerbahce and Besiktas are shown below.
Fenerbahce have recovered from an opening defeat by winning twice in succession and are creating chances at one of the strongest rates in the Turkish Super Lig. Besiktas arrive with the division’s best xGA figure and fresh attacking encouragement after putting six past Corum.
That makes this less a simple contest of form than a test of whether Fenerbahce’s attacking volume can break through a defence that has largely restricted opponents to modest opportunities.
Fenerbahce’s chance creation is the clearest strength
Seven league goals from 7.42 xG across three matches gives Fenerbahce an attacking return broadly in line with the quality of chances they have created. Their average of 2.47 xG per game is second only to Galatasaray, so the recent wins over Konyaspor and Samsunspor are supported by more than finishing alone.
That matters because Besiktas have allowed very little. Their 1.31 xGA is the lowest figure in the league, despite conceding three times. The visitors’ defensive record is therefore backed by the quality of chances they have given up rather than simply by goalkeeping or fortunate finishing against them.
Something has to give. Fenerbahce are producing high-value attacking opportunities at a sustained rate; Besiktas have so far been unusually effective at preventing them.
The hosts also carry momentum from three straight victories in all competitions, including a 2-1 win at Lyon, while the 2-0 victory at Samsunspor brought their first league clean sheet of the campaign.
Besiktas have finally added goals to defensive control
The concern around Besiktas had been obvious after consecutive 1-0 defeats to Alanyaspor and Kauno Zalgiris. A side defending as efficiently as they have still needs enough at the other end to turn control into results.
The 6-2 win over Corum changed that picture sharply. Dusan Vlahovic scored three, while Vaclav Cerny, Orkun Kokcu and Junior Olaitan also found the net. Four second-half goals turned a previously blunt attacking spell into their most productive performance of the campaign.
One emphatic win does not erase the two preceding blanks, but it does mean Fenerbahce cannot approach this as a match against a side dependent entirely on defensive resistance. Besiktas have now scored seven league goals, exactly the same total as their hosts.
Vlahovic’s hat-trick gives them an obvious source of recent confidence, while Cerny and Olaitan have also contributed meaningfully in the wider run of matches.
Absences reduce Fenerbahce’s margin for error
Fenerbahce enter the derby without Mert Hakan Yandas, Anderson Talisca, Kerem Akturkoglu, Marco Asensio, Caglar Soyuncu and Jayden Oosterwolde.
That is a substantial list, particularly against opponents with no major absences reported. Vedat Muriqi has started strongly and scored against Samsunspor, while Mason Greenwood, Oguz Aydin and Irfan Can Kahveci are expected to provide support behind him.
N’Golo Kante and Matteo Guendouzi are expected to form the midfield platform. Besiktas, by contrast, can retain the core of the side that beat Corum, with Salih Ozcan behind Cerny, Olaitan, Kokcu and Leandro Trossard and Vlahovic leading the attack.
Recent derby history offers little comfort either way
Fenerbahce won the latest league meeting 1-0 through a 90th-minute Kerem Akturkoglu penalty, but Besiktas have won three of the last five competitive meetings.
They have also taken three victories from their last five visits to Fenerbahce across all competitions. Curiously, the last eight competitive meetings between the sides have produced no draws.
That sequence underlines how often one of these clubs has found a way to impose itself rather than settle for parity.
📊 Market Explainer
Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
Selection: Both Teams To Score YES. Both teams must score at least once during normal time. The match winner does not matter; the selection is settled only by whether each side finds the net.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Fenerbahce vs Besiktas 2-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Both Teams To Score YES @ 6/10
Fenerbahce enter this Istanbul derby averaging 2.47 xG per game and generating 7.42 xG across their opening three league fixtures, confirming an attacking setup that reliably creates high-value chances. Having scored seven league goals already, the hosts have proved capable of penetrating opposition defences even while managing a substantial injury list that includes Marco Asensio, Kerem Akturkoglu and Anderson Talisca. With Vedat Muriqi scoring in the 2-0 win over Samsunspor alongside support from Mason Greenwood, Fenerbahce possess active forward options capable of maintaining momentum at home.
Besiktas arrive with matching offensive output, having also scored seven league goals in three matches following a 6-2 victory against Corum. That six-goal display showcased their finishing potential through Dusan Vlahovic’s hat-trick alongside goals from Vaclav Cerny, Orkun Kokcu and Junior Olaitan. Although Besiktas boast the division’s lowest expected goals against figure at 1.31 xGA, they have actually conceded three goals across their three matches. Fenerbahce’s elevated chance creation volume meets a Besiktas attack that recently scored six goals in one match, establishing conditions where both teams can realistically find the net.
The principal counterpoint to this selection stems from Besiktas’s earlier scoreless outings against Alanyaspor and Kauno Zalgiris, which demonstrated that their attack can falter. Furthermore, Fenerbahce kept a clean sheet in their recent victory against Samsunspor. However, given that Besiktas have scored seven goals and Fenerbahce carry significant defensive absences including Caglar Soyuncu and Jayden Oosterwolde, both attacks retain sufficient opportunity to score in normal time.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Fenerbahce average 2.47 xG per game, generating 7.42 xG across their first three league matches.
- Besiktas scored six goals in their last outing against Corum, bringing their league tally to seven goals.
- Besiktas surrendered three goals in three league fixtures despite maintaining a division-low 1.31 xGA.
Risk Factor: If Besiktas repeat previous scoreless matches or Fenerbahce keep a clean sheet again, the BTTS selection fails.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Generating 2.47 xG per match across three league games, second only to Galatasaray in overall volume.
Conceded 3 goals from just 1.31 xGA, indicating opponents capitalize on limited chances created.
⚔️ Pick 2: Fenerbahce vs Besiktas 2-1 @ 7/1
A 2-1 home victory aligns directly with Fenerbahce’s underlying attacking metrics and recent scorelines across competitions. Generating 7.42 xG across three league outings demonstrates that the hosts consistently create enough chance quality to score multiple goals, as seen in their 2-1 away victory against Lyon and consecutive league wins over Konyaspor and Samsunspor. Vedat Muriqi’s goalscoring form alongside projected support from Oguz Aydin and Irfan Can Kahveci provides Fenerbahce with reliable forward routes to reach a two-goal tally against a visiting defence that has surrendered three goals despite holding a 1.31 xGA rating.
Besiktas possess clear capability to score once at the Sukru Saracoglu Stadium after recording seven league goals, driven by Dusan Vlahovic’s three-goal performance against Corum and additional goalscoring contributions from Vaclav Cerny and Junior Olaitan. Furthermore, Fenerbahce’s defensive unit is missing key figures in Caglar Soyuncu and Jayden Oosterwolde, increasing the likelihood of conceding a single goal. Recent derby precedent also supports a decisive scoreline, as the last eight competitive meetings between these sides have produced no draws, with Besiktas securing three wins from their last five visits to Fenerbahce.
The primary vulnerability to a 2-1 outcome lies in Besiktas’s tight defensive record of 1.31 xGA, which could restrict Fenerbahce to a single goal, or another defensive shut-out like Fenerbahce’s 2-0 win over Samsunspor. Nevertheless, Fenerbahce’s superior chance creation rate and Besiktas’s recent six-goal outburst make a 2-1 result a well-supported correct score option.
Risk Factor: A strong defensive display or fewer goals than expected could invalidate the 2-1 correct score pick.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the Both Teams To Score (BTTS) market settle?
BTTS wins if both teams score at least once in normal time including stoppage.
What does a Correct Score bet require to win in this match?
Correct Score wins only if the exact predicted final score occurs after 90 minutes plus stoppage.
Why does Fenerbahce's expected goals average support the main selection?
Fenerbahce’s 2.47 xG per match shows consistent creation of high-quality chances.
Does Besiktas having the league's lowest xGA guarantee a low-scoring match?
No, despite low xGA, Besiktas have conceded three goals in three matches.
How do defensive injuries affect Fenerbahce's clean sheet prospects?
Missing key defenders reduces Fenerbahce’s chances of keeping a clean sheet.
What does recent derby history indicate about draws between these sides?
The last eight competitive meetings have produced no draws, favoring decisive results.
