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At the Dragão, does this cup quarter-final finally break the Porto–Benfica stalemate? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Both teams are among the lowest scorers in the league. Getafe has a non-existent win rate since November, and Valencia is winless in two months. The tactical battle favors a low-block, high-foul game that stifles creativity.
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Getafe's second-worst attack meets a Valencia side that struggles to convert possession into goals. The high-pressure nature of their league positions encourages a defensive-first approach from both managers.
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Porto vs Benfica Predictions and Best Bets
Porto vs Benfica — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds.
Porto enter as favorites having won 12 of 14 home matches this season, though the draw remains a significant factor in recent head-to-heads.
Low-scoring margins dominate the landscape, with a tight 1–0 Porto victory or a 1–1 stalemate holding the highest implied probability.
- Porto’s Dragão Wall: Porto have won 12 of 14 home matches this season, and they arrive on seven straight wins across all competitions.
- Shot Volume Collision: Porto average 14.6 shots per league game while Benfica hit 15.6, so this could feel like punch-for-punch football rather than a slow chess match.
- Pavlidis Factor: Vangelis Pavlidis has 17 league goals and 4 assists in 16(1) appearances — one ruthless finisher can tilt a knockout night fast.
Attacking Intent: Shots per League Game
Both sides prioritize offensive pressure, maintaining high shot averages that suggest an active knockout fixture.
Samu Aghehowa leads the line with 3.3 shots per game, showing Porto’s directness in the final third.
Benfica’s slightly higher shot count reflects their tendency to control territory and high full-back positioning.
Defensive Reliability: Goals Conceded Average
A comparison of overall defensive tightness across all competitions this season.
With 17 clean sheets in 27 games, Porto’s structure at the Dragão is the competition’s benchmark.
Benfica have maintained 18 clean sheets in 32 matches, anchored by Otamendi’s aerial dominance.
O Clássico doesn’t need extra noise, but a Taça de Portugal quarter-final at Estádio do Dragão adds a sharper edge anyway. Porto come in flying: 11 wins in 12 across all competitions, the most recent seven all victories, and a tidy 1-0 away league win at Santa Clara to start the year. They’ve already bulldozed their way through this cup run, including a 4-1 thumping of Famalicão at the Dragão on December 18.
Benfica’s route has been steadier than flashy, but their threat is obvious. They’ve rattled in 36 league goals of their own and carry a forward line led by the division’s most prolific scorer in Pavlidis. Kick-off is 20:45 — and with Porto chasing a 21st Taça crown, the stakes feel heavy the moment the first tackle lands.
Team News & Lineups
Porto manager: Francesco Farioli
Benfica manager: José Mourinho
Injuries / absences
- Porto:
- Luuk de Jong (knee injury)
- Gabri Veiga (ankle injury)
- Nehuén Pérez (Achilles tendon rupture, out until 01.04.2026)
- A. Russo Franco (knee injury)
- Benfica: No injuries/suspensions listed.
Probable Porto XI
C. Ramos; Fernandes, Jakub Kiwior, Jan Bednarek, A. Costa; Victor Froholdt, Pablo Rosario, Mora; Pepê, Samu Aghehowa, Borja Sainz.
Probable Benfica XI
Trubin; Dedic, T. Araujo, A. Silva, Dahl; Rios, M. Silva; Sudakov, Barreiro, Aursnes; Pavlidis.
What it means on the pitch
Porto missing Nehuén Pérez removes a high-level defensive option, and without Gabri Veiga they lose a creative connector. Benfica’s list is clean here, which hints at maximum stability — and in a knockout game, that matters when the match starts to fray.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Porto | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| League games | 17 | 17 |
| League goals scored | 36 | 36 |
| Shots per game (league) | 14.6 | 15.6 |
| Possession (league) | 56.3% | 57.7% |
| Pass accuracy (league) | 85.3% | 85.5% |
| Clean sheets (overall) | 17 (in 27) | 18 (in 32) |
| Goals conceded (overall avg) | 0.48 | 0.69 |
This is the rare derby where both sides want the ball and both can keep it. Porto and Benfica are almost mirror images for possession and passing, but the details separate them: Porto concede fewer on average across their wider run, while Benfica lean on a finisher who turns good moments into goals quickly. That mix screams intensity — not caution.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
The shared DNA: control, short passes, and territory
Both teams want to live in the opponent’s half. Porto and Benfica are built around possession football, short passes, and through balls — and neither is naturally aggressive. That can create a strange kind of derby: the tempo is high, but it’s controlled high, with both sides trying to trap the other with structure rather than chaos.
Porto’s edge is how complete they look when they go ahead. They’re very strong at protecting the lead, very strong at finishing scoring chances, and strong on counter attacks. That’s a nasty combination at the Dragão: press, score, then punish any desperation.
Porto’s front three: direct threat with a ruthless nine
With Samu Aghehowa in the middle, Porto carry a clear centre-forward danger. He’s hit 12 league goals and averages 3.3 shots per game, which tells you he doesn’t wait around for perfect chances. Add Borja Sainz (5 goals, 2 assists) and Pepê (2 goals, 3 assists), and Porto have runners who can turn a tidy passing phase into a sudden sprint at the back line.
The question is how Porto cope if the game stretches. They are weak at avoiding offside, and Benfica’s defenders are comfortable holding a line and competing in the air.
Benfica’s weapons: wing force and aerial dominance
Benfica aren’t just slick — they’re brutal in key areas. They’re very strong attacking down the wings, very strong in aerial duels, and very strong at defending set pieces. If Porto allow wide deliveries, Benfica can turn crosses and second balls into sustained pressure, especially with Nicolás Otamendi (4.8 aerials won) stepping into duels and Pavlidis (2.2 aerials won) offering a target as well as a finisher.
The danger for Benfica is self-inflicted. They are very weak at avoiding individual errors. In a derby, that’s the sort of flaw that doesn’t need repeated pressure — it just needs one bad touch, one loose pass, one moment of panic.
The matchup that could decide it: Porto’s counters vs Benfica’s risk
Benfica’s attacking strength pulls bodies forward and pushes full-backs high. Porto’s counter-attacking strength is built to exploit exactly that. If Porto win the ball cleanly through Rosario or Froholdt, expect the next pass to be vertical — fast, direct, and aimed at dragging Benfica’s centre-backs into uncomfortable races.
Key Moments to Watch
- First big chance: Porto’s average first goal time sits at 42′, while Benfica’s is 37′ — both sides can strike before the game settles.
- Set-piece control: Both teams defend set pieces strongly; the second ball and box organisation will matter more than the first delivery.
- Discipline and flashpoints: Porto have 1 red card across the wider set, Benfica have 4 — derby emotion can turn one challenge into a turning point.
What could go wrong?
For Porto, it’s the frustration of recent meetings: they’ve failed to win the last three against Benfica, including a 0-0 draw earlier this season, and knockout football can tighten nerves if the first goal doesn’t arrive. For Benfica, the risk is obvious and ugly — individual errors. Give Porto a cheap transition, and a side this sharp in front of goal can make it feel like a punishment rather than a warning.
Best Bet for Porto vs Benfica
At the Dragão, does this cup quarter-final finally break the Porto–Benfica stalemate?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Form | Porto 7 straight wins; Benfica 36 league goals | Porto to Win |
| Attack | Porto 14.6 shots/gm; Benfica 15.6 shots/gm | Over 2.5 Goals |
| Defense | Porto 0.48 GA/avg; Benfica 0.69 GA/avg | Under 2.5 Goals |
| History | 0-0 in last meeting; Porto 0 wins in last 3 | Draw (90 mins) |
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Porto to Win (Regular Time)
Porto enter this Taça de Portugal quarter-final as the most in-form side in the country. They have secured victory in 11 of their last 12 matches across all competitions, including seven consecutive wins leading into this fixture. At the Estádio do Dragão, they are nearly untouchable, having won 12 of their 14 home matches this season. This home dominance is the foundation of their campaign and creates a psychological hurdle for any visiting side.
While Benfica possesses a potent attack, Porto’s defensive organization is superior. Porto concede just 0.48 goals per game on average, compared to Benfica’s 0.69. This defensive solidity is complemented by a clinical front line. Samu Aghehowa is in elite form with 12 league goals, averaging 3.3 shots per game. Porto’s ability to protect a lead is classified as a significant strength; if they strike first, they have the structural discipline to see the game out.
Benfica’s primary weakness is a tendency for individual errors. In a high-pressure O Clássico environment, these lapses are often fatal. Porto’s tactical setup is designed to punish such mistakes through rapid counter-attacks and direct play. Porto also benefit from a significant shot volume, averaging 14.6 per game. This persistent pressure, combined with the home crowd advantage, makes them the clear favorite to advance.
Benfica’s clean bill of health provides stability, but they must overcome a Porto side that has already proven its knockout pedigree this season with a 4-1 dismantling of Famalicão. Porto’s motivation to secure a 21st Taça crown at home will likely overwhelm a Benfica side that has struggled to beat them in recent high-stakes encounters at the Dragão.
What could go wrong? Benfica’s aerial dominance and wing-play represent a specific threat, especially with Vangelis Pavlidis’s finishing ability and Nicolás Otamendi’s strength in the air. If Porto’s defense, missing the injured Nehuén Pérez, fails to track Pavlidis or loses focus during wide deliveries, Benfica could snatch a result against the run of play.
Correct Score Lean
Porto 1-0 Benfica
This scoreline reflects the tactical reality of two giants who prioritize control. Porto’s defense is the best in the data set, allowing less than half a goal per game. While both teams have high shot volumes, their mutual defensive strengths often result in a “chess match” style of play. Porto’s average first goal time of 42 minutes suggests a breakthrough just before the half, after which their elite ability to protect a lead will likely stifle Benfica’s comeback attempts.
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