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Will Atlético’s right-sided threat and set-piece punch outmuscle Real Madrid’s shot-heavy control in Jeddah? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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This selection is based on the strong attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities of both sides. Atlético Madrid have scored in 92% of their last 26 games, while Real Madrid have scored in 88%. Tactically, both teams are weak at defending through balls—a primary strength for both sets of creative players. With Atlético averaging 2 goals per game and Real Madrid averaging 2.19, the statistical probability of seeing at least three goals is high. Their last meeting resulted in seven goals, further highlighting the potential for a high-scoring derby in this format.
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A high-scoring draw is a plausible outcome given the defensive trends. Atlético Madrid are very weak at protecting leads, and Real Madrid are weak at stopping opponents from creating chances. Both teams have a high percentage of "Both Teams to Score" outcomes (65% for Atlético, 54% for Real). Since both teams average roughly two goals per match and possess the individual quality to punish tactical errors, a 2-2 scoreline reflects the likely back-and-forth nature of a derby where neither side is expected to keep a clean sheet.
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Atletico Madrid vs Real Madrid Predictions and Best Bets
Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Pricing shown below reflects market trends for this Supercopa de España semi-final in Jeddah.
Exchange prices suggest a competitive contest with Real Madrid holding the edge in the 90-minute result market.
Tactical overlaps and defensive vulnerabilities point toward a match with multiple goals in Riyadh.
- Real’s shot output sets the baseline for the whole semi-final: 508 total shots across 26 matches, averaging 19.54 per game, means Atlético must defend wave after wave.
- Both sides score with relentless regularity: Atlético have scored in 24 of their last 26 matches (92%), while Real have scored in 23 of 26 (88%), so clean sheets come at a premium.
- The derby usually finds goals at both ends in Atlético’s matches: both teams have scored in 17 of Atlético’s last 26 games (65%), keeping the contest alive even after a breakthrough.
Attacking Firepower: Goals Per Game
Both Madrid giants have maintained a scoring average of 2.0 or higher throughout their recent campaign cycles.
With 52 goals across 26 matches, Simeone’s side are producing high-frequency attacking returns.
A total of 57 goals in 26 games highlights the overwhelming offensive volume from the white side of Madrid.
Shot Intent: Offensive Pressure
The difference in total shots highlights contrasting styles of building pressure on opposition back lines.
Atlético rely on high-quality chances, scoring 52 times from 338 total shots.
Real Madrid maintain constant pressure, accumulating 508 shots over their last 26 fixtures.
Hostilities between Atlético Madrid and Real Madrid get a fresh chapter on Thursday, with the Spanish Super Cup semi-final staged in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. Same city, same badge weight, same grudges — and the kind of one-off format that turns every small decision into a headline.
Atlético arrive chasing a fourth Spanish Super Cup. Real Madrid come hunting a 14th. That difference in target numbers doesn’t make one side “more up for it”, but it does put a neat frame around the night: Atlético are trying to add another trophy to their collection; Real are trying to stack yet another on a towering pile.
Both teams also bring recent momentum in different shapes. Atlético’s last six matches show four wins, one draw and one defeat, with a 1-1 at Real Sociedad last time out. Real Madrid’s last six show four wins and two defeats, but the most recent memory is loud: a 5-1 win over Real Betis. Form never plays the match for you, but it sets the mood. This one is set to be intense.
And there’s a tactical sub-plot baked into the descriptions of both sides. Atlético are strong on the counter, strong down the wings, and very strong from direct free kicks. Real Madrid are very strong at creating chances through individual skill, very strong at stealing the ball from the opposition, and they take a lot of shots. Put those together and you don’t get a gentle chess match. You get a derby where control is contested, transitions are constant, and set pieces feel like open-play moments.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Atlético’s possible starting XI is: Oblak; Llorente, Pubill, Le Normand, Hancko; Simeone, Gallagher, Koke, Baena; Sorloth, Alvarez.
That looks like a back four with a busy midfield line and a two-man front, and it puts some key strengths straight onto the pitch. Atlético are strong in aerial duels, and that suits Alexander Sørloth, who wins 2.9 aerials per match. They also have a genuine finisher in Julián Alvarez, who has seven LaLiga goals and adds three assists — a forward who can end moves and start them.
The balance of the midfield matters too. Koke’s pass success sits at 93, which speaks to control, while Conor Gallagher has been used heavily in a stop-start way, with 4 starts and 15 substitute appearances. Álex Baena adds a creative edge, and Giuliano Simeone brings five assists, which is a serious supply line for a player listed as an attacking midfielder/wing type.
There are also absences and doubts in Atlético’s notes: Pablo Barrios Rivas is listed with calf problems, Nico González has a muscle injury until 25.01.2026, and Clément Lenglet has an inner ligament injury until 01.03.2026. That has consequences for rotation and for how Atlético manage the midfield minutes and defensive cover.
Real Madrid’s possible starting XI is: Courtois; Valverde, Huijsen, Rudiger, Carreras; Camavinga, Tchouameni; Rodrygo, Bellingham, Vinicius; Garcia.
That reads like a back four with a double pivot, three creators behind a striker. There is star power everywhere you look. Kylian Mbappé isn’t in the listed XI, but he dominates the squad numbers: 18 goals and four assists in LaLiga, with 4.9 shots per game and a rating of 8.04. Even without placing him into Thursday’s line-up, his presence in the squad list shows the level Real carry into this competition.
The likely XI has its own edge. Federico Valverde has six assists and offers drive from wide or full-back areas. Jude Bellingham adds goals and craft (four goals, three assists). Vinícius Júnior gives both creation and chaos, with five goals and five assists. Aurélien Tchouaméni, meanwhile, wins 2.6 aerials per match — a number that matters when Atlético are strong in aerial duels and love set-piece moments.
How the Match Could Be Played
This derby has a clear clash of identities. Atlético are described as possession football and non-aggressive, attacking down the right, while also being strong on counter attacks. That combination sounds contradictory until you picture it properly: Atlético can keep the ball when it suits them, but they don’t need the ball to hurt you. They’re happy to sit, wait, and then strike with purpose.
Real Madrid, for their part, also control the game in the opposition’s half, use short passes, and play possession football. They attack down the left and take a lot of shots. That means the basic expectation is Real pushing territory, Atlético accepting spells without the ball, and the match swinging on what happens when either side breaks the press.
Because both teams are tagged as “stealing the ball from the opposition” at the top end — Real very strong, Atlético not listed quite as strongly but still dangerous in transition — the pressing cues become crucial. Real are strong at creating chances using through balls. Atlético are weak at defending against through ball attacks. That’s not a minor note; that’s a tactical alarm bell. If Real can tempt Atlético’s midfield line forward and then slide runners into the space behind, they can cut cleanly through to goal without needing 30 passes.
But there’s a mirror warning at the other end too. Real are weak at defending against through ball attacks and weak at stopping opponents from creating chances. Atlético are strong on counter attacks and strong at finishing scoring chances. Put simply: if Real lose structure in possession, Atlético have the tools to punish them quickly, especially with Alvarez’s 1.9 shots per game and Sørloth’s ability to turn long clearances into immediate second-ball attacks.
The flanks are another obvious battleground. Atlético are strong at attacking down the wings and attack down the right. Real attack down the left. It sets up a match where both sides will try to overload their preferred flank and force the opponent’s full-back to defend two men at once. If Atlético get Llorente high on the right and connect with Simeone and Alvarez, they can pull Real’s left side into awkward angles. If Real get Vinícius isolated and running at defenders, the match can tilt into repeated emergency defending.
Set pieces feel like a third team in this semi-final. Atlético are very strong from direct free kicks, and strong at defending set pieces. Real are very strong at attacking set pieces and also strong at defending set pieces. That makes dead balls less about “maybe” and more about “here we go again”. And with both sides weak at defending against through balls, fouls in transition become doubly dangerous: they stop the break, but they also hand over a chance for a delivery or a direct hit.
There’s one more thread that could define the story if it becomes a lead-and-hold contest. Atlético are very weak at protecting the lead. Real Madrid aren’t great here either; Real’s weakness list includes stopping opponents from creating chances, while Atlético’s includes protecting the lead in the most severe terms. If one side goes in front, it doesn’t switch the match off. It keeps it alive, twitchy, and possibly wild.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
On pure output, both teams come in swinging. Across 26 played games in the Supercopa dataset snapshot, Atlético have scored 52 goals — exactly 2 per match — and conceded 31, which is 1.19 per match. Real have scored 57, which is 2.19 per match, and conceded 26, which is 1 per match. That matters because it frames this as a derby with goals in it more often than not, and with both sides capable of landing multiple blows.
Shot volume backs that up. Atlético have taken 338 shots across these matches, averaging 13 per game. Real have taken 508, averaging 19.54. That’s a huge difference in intent: Real don’t just create; they keep creating, again and again. It also means Atlético’s defensive organisation has to survive long spells, not just short storms.
Possession numbers match the stylistic descriptions. Atlético’s possession sits at 53% with 86% pass accuracy, while Real’s is 59% with 89% pass accuracy. That matters because it explains why both sides are described as controlling the game in the opposition’s half: they keep the ball well enough to pin you back.
The “both teams to score” lines add another layer. Atlético have seen both teams score in 17 of their 26 matches (65%). Real have seen it in 14 of 26 (54%). That matters because it aligns with both teams being strong at finishing scoring chances and both carrying a weakness defending through balls.
And the scoring reliability is elite on both sides. Atlético have scored in 24 of their last 26 matches (92%). Real have scored in 23 of their last 26 (88%). In a derby semi-final, that kind of consistency drags the match away from a cautious stalemate and towards a contest where each side backs itself to find a moment.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first swing factor is the space behind the midfield line. Real are strong at creating chances using through balls, and Atlético are weak defending against through ball attacks. If Real win that battle early, it becomes a match of repeated runs and constant alarms for Atlético’s back line.
The second is Atlético’s counter punch. Atlético are strong on counter attacks and strong at finishing scoring chances, while Real are weak at defending against through ball attacks. One loose pass in the wrong zone and the ball is travelling 30 yards in a blink.
The third is the set-piece duel. Atlético are very strong from direct free kicks and strong at defending set pieces. Real are very strong at attacking set pieces and strong at defending them. That makes every dead ball feel like a mini semi-final inside the semi-final.
The fourth is the aerial fight when the match goes direct. Atlético are strong in aerial duels, and Sørloth and Pubill both post big aerial numbers, while Real have aerial strength in Tchouaméni and Huijsen. If either side starts skipping midfield, those first contacts decide whether the next phase is an attack or a clearance.
What could go wrong with this read? The derby factor can smash structure. A single mistake can outweigh 60 minutes of control. A red card flips every plan. And with both sides carrying vulnerabilities protecting a lead, the final half-hour can turn into a frantic exchange of moments rather than a carefully managed finish.
Best Bet for Atlético Madrid vs Real Madrid
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Over 2.5 goals
The historical and tactical profile of this rivalry points toward a high-scoring encounter in Jeddah. Both teams possess elite offensive reliability; Atlético Madrid have scored in 24 of their last 26 matches, while Real Madrid have found the net in 23 of their last 26. This consistency is paired with glaring defensive vulnerabilities that the opposition is perfectly built to exploit. Real Madrid are very strong at creating chances using through balls, a specific area where Atlético are weak. Conversely, Atlético are masters of the counter-attack and finishing scoring chances, while Real Madrid struggle to defend against through ball attacks and often fail to stop opponents from creating chances in transition.
Statistical evidence from the current campaign further reinforces the likelihood of a high goal count. Across 26 matches, Atlético average exactly two goals per game, while Real Madrid slightly exceed that with 2.19. The shot volume from the white side of Madrid is particularly aggressive, averaging 19.54 shots per match compared to Atlético’s 13. When these two sides met earlier this season in LaLiga, the game exploded for seven goals in a 5-2 Atlético victory, proving that their defensive structures can buckle under the weight of the other’s attacking talent.
Furthermore, both clubs have a high frequency of games where neither side keeps a clean sheet. Both teams have scored in 65% of Atlético’s matches and 54% of Real Madrid’s. Given that neither team excels at protecting a lead—Atlético are very weak in this regard and Real Madrid are weak at preventing chances—a single opening goal is more likely to trigger a flurry of activity than a defensive lockout. With individual stars like Julián Alvarez (7 goals) and Vinícius Júnior (5 goals, 5 assists) on the pitch, the offensive quality should overwhelm the defensive setups.
What could go wrong
The primary risk to a high-scoring prediction is the “one-off” tournament pressure, which can sometimes lead to a more cautious, low-block approach to avoid an early exit. If Diego Simeone prioritizes a non-aggressive possession game to stifle Real Madrid’s shot volume, the match could stagnate. Additionally, a standout performance from world-class goalkeepers Jan Oblak or Thibaut Courtois could see a high number of shots on target result in few actual goals.
Correct score lean
2-2
A 2-2 draw in regular time aligns with the evidence of high scoring rates and defensive frailties. Both teams average approximately two goals per game and possess significant strengths in areas where the other is weak. Specifically, Atlético’s dominance in aerial duels and set pieces (Alexander Sørloth wins 2.9 per match) provides a reliable path to goal against a Real Madrid side that is weak at stopping chance creation. Meanwhile, Real’s immense shot volume and ability to create through balls should breach an Atlético defense that is notably poor at defending those specific patterns.
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