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Zwaluwen crestZwaluwen
v
Purmersteijn crestPurmersteijn

KNVB Beker | Wed 23 Sep, 19:00

Zwaluwen v Purmersteijn Stats

Data last updated: Tue 22 Sep 2026, 08:13 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Zwaluwen and Purmersteijn meet in this KNVB Beker clash, both teams showing attacking intent early in the season. Zwaluwen has scored seven goals without conceding, while Purmersteijn has netted four but also conceded three. Both sides have recorded 100% Over 2.5 Goals rates in recent matches, suggesting an open game with multiple scoring opportunities. The fixture promises a lively contest with offensive momentum on both sides, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter under cup knockout pressure.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Zwaluwen scored 7 goals and conceded none in recent matches, showing strong attack and defense.
  • Purmersteijn scored 4 goals but conceded 3, indicating openness at the back.
  • Both teams have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, signaling frequent high-scoring games.
  • No previous head-to-head data, so recent form is key to assessing goal potential.
  • Model projects a 58% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, with positive value at 2.2 .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 3.5 Goals with a 58% probability, reflecting both teams' recent attacking output and defensive vulnerabilities. Zwaluwen's seven goals scored and zero conceded, combined with Purmersteijn's four goals and three conceded, suggest a match prone to multiple goals. Both sides have consistently seen games exceed 2.5 goals, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring fixture. The offer positive value with a 12.5% edge, making Over 3.5 Goals a compelling selection without price warnings.

Recent scoring formZwaluwen 7 GF/0 GA, Purmersteijn 4 GF/3 GA
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Goals rate100% for both teams in recent matches
Strong positive
Model chance vs implied chance58% vs 45.5%, positive value edge
Strong positive
Head-to-head dataNo prior meetings, neutral
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game given both teams' recent goal-scoring form and defensive lapses. Zwaluwen's clean defensive record contrasts with Purmersteijn's concessions, suggesting opportunities for multiple goals. The data supports a high-scoring match, making Over 3.5 Goals a logical choice based on current momentum and offensive patterns.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and match openness

“Both sides have shown attacking prowess and defensive frailties, setting up a fixture ripe for goals. The strong recent Over 2.5 Goals rates and positive model edge highlight the likelihood of a high-scoring encounter.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Zwaluwen scored 7 goals and conceded none in recent matches, showing strong attack and defense.

Purmersteijn scored 4 goals but conceded 3, indicating openness at the back.

Both teams have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate recently, signaling frequent high-scoring games.

No previous head-to-head data, so recent form is key to assessing goal potential.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • In the last five matches for both teams, Over 2.5 Goals has occurred in 100% of games, indicating a strong trend toward high-scoring affairs.
  • This tempo and goal frequency suggest that the match will feature open play, quick transitions, and defensive vulnerabilities conducive to multiple goals.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Zwaluwen7
Avg goals scored
Purmersteijn4
Zwaluwen0
Avg goals conceded
Purmersteijn3
Zwaluwen0%
BTTS rate
Purmersteijn100%
Zwaluwen100%
Over 2.5 goals
Purmersteijn100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 46% · edge +12.5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 88%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 26%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Both teams have demonstrated strong goal-scoring form recently, with Zwaluwen scoring seven and Purmersteijn four goals. Zwaluwen's clean sheet record contrasts with Purmersteijn conceding three, indicating an open game with goals likely at both ends. The 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate for both sides supports the expectation of multiple goals and BTTS possibilities.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 67% · edge +11.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Zwaluwen to WinBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Purmersteijn to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
DrawBet365 guide price · model 21%
4
Check odds @ 4
The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 2.2, reflecting a 45.5% implied chance against the model's 58% probability. This positive suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring game, making the bet a worthwhile consideration without price sensitivity concerns.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Zwaluwen

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
02 Sep 2026A Lierop7-0

Purmersteijn

W
Last 51W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 0L
02 Sep 2026H Zwaluw VFC4-3
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 73% · edge -4.5 pts
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Load more odds for this section
Zwaluwen to WinBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Purmersteijn to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
DrawBet365 guide price · model 21%
4
Check odds @ 4
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Recent form strongly favors a high-scoring game, with both teams achieving 100% Over 2.5 Goals rates. Zwaluwen's seven goals scored without conceding and Purmersteijn's four goals with three conceded highlight contrasting defensive records but mutual attacking effectiveness, reinforcing the likelihood of a goal-rich encounter.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Zwaluwen wins
0Draws
0Purmersteijn wins
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 67% · edge +11.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Zwaluwen to WinBetfred guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Purmersteijn to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
DrawBet365 guide price · model 21%
4
Check odds @ 4
No previous meetings exist between Zwaluwen and Purmersteijn, so head-to-head data offers no predictive value. This absence places greater emphasis on recent form and season statistics to assess goal-scoring potential and match dynamics.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

KNVB Beker

Zwaluwen1
Played
Purmersteijn1
Zwaluwen7
Avg goals for
Purmersteijn4
Zwaluwen0
Avg goals against
Purmersteijn3
Zwaluwen1
Clean sheets
Purmersteijn0
Best odds for this sectionZwaluwen to WinBetfred guide price · Model 47% vs implied 48% · edge -0.7 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Load more odds for this section
Purmersteijn to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
2.55
Check odds @ 2.55
Season-long scoring and defensive stats underline the attacking nature of this fixture. Zwaluwen's robust offense coupled with a solid defense contrasts with Purmersteijn's more porous backline. These profiles suggest a match where offensive opportunities will be abundant, supporting the Over 3.5 Goals selection based on season trends.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Zwaluwen Over 2.5
100%Purmersteijn Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
In the last five matches for both teams, Over 2.5 Goals has occurred in 100% of games, indicating a strong trend toward high-scoring affairs. This tempo and goal frequency suggest that the match will feature open play, quick transitions, and defensive vulnerabilities conducive to multiple goals.

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