York

Swindon Town

League Two | Sat 12 Sep, 15:00

York v Swindon Town Stats

Data last updated: Fri 11 Sep 2026, 08:35 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

York and Swindon Town meet in a League Two clash where attacking intent and goal-scoring form are prominent. York has averaged 1.8 goals per game recently, while Swindon Town has scored 1.6 per match, both sides showing offensive promise. Swindon Town sits second in the table with 10 points, and York is close behind in ninth with 8 points, adding competitive edge to this fixture. Both teams have shown tendencies for open play and goal-rich encounters, setting the stage for a potentially high-scoring contest.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

York averages 18.2 shots per game with 5.8 on target, indicating strong attacking pressure.
Swindon Town has an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, highlighting their involvement in high-scoring games.
York’s BTTS rate is 100%, showing consistent goal exchanges in their matches.
The model estimates a 50.8% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, with an 8.8% at of 2.38.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 3.5 Goals due to both teams' attacking output and openness in matches. York’s high shot volume and Swindon Town’s frequent involvement in high-scoring games support a goal-rich encounter. The 50.8% exceeds the 42% implied probability from current , indicating positive value. is moderate at 60%, reflecting some uncertainty but a solid statistical foundation for expecting multiple goals.

York’s attacking volume18.2 shots per game with 5.8 on target

Strong positive

Swindon Town’s Over 2.5 Goals rate80% of matches

Strong positive

Model chance vs implied chance50.8% vs 42%

Positive

Confidence level60%

Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both York and Swindon Town pushing forward aggressively. York’s high shot volume and Swindon’s strong scoring record suggest multiple goals. The data supports a lively encounter where Over 3.5 Goals is a plausible outcome given the teams’ offensive tendencies and recent form.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and attacking styles

“York’s relentless shot creation combined with Swindon Town’s frequent high-scoring matches makes Over 3.5 Goals a compelling angle. Both teams’ offensive patterns suggest this fixture could be an entertaining goal fest.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

York averages 18.2 shots per game with 5.8 on target, indicating strong attacking pressure.

Swindon Town has an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, highlighting their involvement in high-scoring games.

York’s BTTS rate is 100%, showing consistent goal exchanges in their matches.

The model estimates a 50.8% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, with an 8.8% at of 2.38.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

In the last meeting between these teams, the average goals scored was 3, indicating a relatively high-scoring encounter.
Recent trends show both sides frequently participate in matches exceeding 2.5 goals, with Swindon Town’s 80% rate particularly notable.
This trend panel suggests a tempo and style conducive to multiple goal opportunities in this fixture.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

York8

Avg corners for

Swindon Town4.2

York13.5

Avg total corners

Swindon Town12

York1

Avg yellow cards

Swindon Town1.8

York16.5

Avg shots

Swindon Town8

Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

York’s control in shots (18.2 per game) and corners (7.2 per game) indicates sustained attacking pressure and territorial advantage. Swindon Town’s lower shot and corner numbers suggest they may rely on counter-attacks. Discipline is moderate, with Swindon averaging 1.8 yellows and York 1.2, implying a competitive but not overly aggressive match.

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League Two hub corners trends hub player stats betting angles football stats hub football hub football predictions hub best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

York1.8

Avg goals scored

Swindon Town1.6

York1.6

Avg goals conceded

Swindon Town1.2

York100%

BTTS rate

Swindon Town60%

York60%

Over 2.5 goals

Swindon Town80%

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 42% · edge +8.8 pts

2.38

Check odds @ 2.38

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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 87%

1.17

Check odds @ 1.17

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 35%

2.35

Check odds @ 2.35

BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Both teams have shown strong goal involvement, with York’s matches always featuring goals from both sides and Swindon Town’s 60% BTTS rate supporting goal exchanges. Combined with their scoring averages, this points to a fixture likely to produce multiple goals and goal-scoring opportunities for both sides.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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Swindon Town Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%

Check odds @ 3

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Swindon Town to WinBetUK guide price · model 35%

Check odds @ 5

DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%

3.9

Check odds @ 3.9

York Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%

1.38

Check odds @ 1.38

York to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced attractively with of 2.38, reflecting a 42% implied chance. The model’s 50.8% probability indicates positive value, suggesting the market underestimates the likelihood of a high-scoring game. This price sensitivity makes the bet appealing without being overly short-priced, offering a balanced risk-reward.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

York

DLWDW

Last 52W 2D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 2D 1L

05 Sep 2026A Crewe1-1

01 Sep 2026A Cheltenham2-3

29 Aug 2026H Exeter City2-1

22 Aug 2026A Rotherham1-1

15 Aug 2026H Bristol Rovers3-2

Swindon Town

WWLWD

Last 53W 1D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 103W 1D 1L

05 Sep 2026H Colchester3-1

01 Sep 2026H Port Vale3-1

29 Aug 2026A Oldham0-3

22 Aug 2026H Cheltenham2-1

15 Aug 2026A Northampton0-0

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

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Swindon Town Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 48%

Check odds @ 3

Swindon Town to WinBetUK guide price · model 35%

Check odds @ 5

DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%

3.9

Check odds @ 3.9

Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 61%

1.17

Check odds @ 1.17

York Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%

1.38

Check odds @ 1.38

York to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Recent form data shows York scoring 1.8 goals per game and Swindon Town 1.6, with York’s matches going over 2.5 goals 60% of the time and Swindon Town’s 80%. York’s perfect BTTS rate contrasts with Swindon’s 60%, indicating York’s games are more consistently open and goal-rich, supporting the Over 3.5 Goals selection.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0York wins

0Draws

1Swindon Town wins

10 Nov 2018Swindon Town v York2-1

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Load more odds for this section

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 69%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Swindon Town to WinBetUK guide price · model 35%

Check odds @ 5

DrawBetfred guide price · model 27%

3.9

Check odds @ 3.9

York to WinBet365 guide price · model 34%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

The single previous meeting between York and Swindon Town featured an average of 3 goals, supporting the potential for a high-scoring game. Although the head-to-head sample is limited, this data aligns with both teams’ current offensive tendencies and recent form, providing a relevant background for the Over 3.5 Goals pick.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
2	Swindon Town	10	5	3	1	1	2
9	York	8	5	2	2	1	1

Swindon Town’s second-place position with 10 points and York’s ninth with 8 points reflect both teams’ competitive form and motivation. While table positions alone don’t dictate scoring, the proximity in points and ambition to climb the table may encourage open play and risk-taking, increasing the likelihood of goals.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%York Over 2.5

80%Swindon Town Over 2.5

3H2H avg goals

In the last meeting between these teams, the average goals scored was 3, indicating a relatively high-scoring encounter. Recent trends show both sides frequently participate in matches exceeding 2.5 goals, with Swindon Town’s 80% rate particularly notable. This trend panel suggests a tempo and style conducive to multiple goal opportunities in this fixture.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

York v Swindon Town Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

York

Swindon Town

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Football Stats Hub

York v Swindon Town Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

York

Swindon Town

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