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v
Fulham crestFulham

Premier League | Sun 17 May, 15:00

Wolves v Fulham Stats

Data last updated: Mon 10 Aug 2026, 20:47 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Wolves face Fulham in Premier League on Sun 17 May, 15:00. Wolves have conceded 14 goals in their last six league matches and failed to keep a clean sheet in every one of them.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Wolves Win

  • At 8/11, Wolves Win implies roughly 58%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 27%.
  • Despite Fulham's away scoring drought, Wolves' porous defence, conceding 1.
  • Fulham have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 1 for Wolves.
  • Fulham have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Wolves Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Wolves sit 20 in the table, while Fulham sit 11, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.
Price warning

Wolves Win is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 58% while the model sits nearer 27% (-30.9 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Fulham Draw No Bet shows a +14 pts edge at 1.85.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The 27% for Wolves Win sits against roughly 58% implied by the current price. Fulham have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 1 for Wolves. Despite Fulham's away scoring drought, Wolves' porous defence, conceding 1.

Model chance vs price27% model chance against roughly 58% implied
Negative
Fulham have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points.Visible data support
Positive
Fulham have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Despite Fulham's away scoring drought, Wolves' porous defence, conceding.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Wolves Win is the preferred angle because despite Fulham's away scoring drought, Wolves' porous defence, conceding 1.81 goals per match, provides the perfect opportunity for the visitors to capitalise on home nerves. Fulham have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 1 for Wolves. The visitors still have the healthier season overall, but there is no swagger surrounding them right now.

Main risk

The visitors still have the healthier season overall, but there is no swagger surrounding them right now.

Key Data Signals

Wolves Win evidence

Despite Fulham's away scoring drought, Wolves' porous defence, conceding 1.

Fulham have the stronger recent points return, taking 4 points from the sample compared with 1 for Wolves.

Fulham have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Wolves Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Wolves sit 20 in the table, while Fulham sit 11, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Wolves Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Wolves0.2
    Avg goals scored
    Fulham0.2
    Wolves2.4
    Avg goals conceded
    Fulham1.2
    Wolves20%
    BTTS rate
    Fulham0%
    Wolves60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Fulham20%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts
    2.1
    Check odds @ 2.1
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 57%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 29%
    3
    Check odds @ 3
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 37%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Season team stats

    Premier League

    Wolves38
    Played
    Fulham38
    Wolves0.7
    Avg goals for
    Fulham1.2
    Wolves1.8
    Avg goals against
    Fulham1.3
    Wolves4
    Clean sheets
    Fulham9
    Market aligned with main pickWolves to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 27% · edge +0.3 pts
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Wolves Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Season data supports Wolves to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Wolves

    LDLLL
    Last 50W 1D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 3D 5L
    09 May 2026A Brighton0-3
    02 May 2026H Sunderland1-1
    25 Apr 2026H Tottenham0-1
    18 Apr 2026A Leeds0-3
    10 Apr 2026A West Ham0-4

    Fulham

    LLWDL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 2D 4L
    09 May 2026H Bournemouth0-1
    02 May 2026A Arsenal0-3
    25 Apr 2026H Aston Villa1-0
    18 Apr 2026A Brentford0-0
    11 Apr 2026A Liverpool0-2
    Market aligned with main pickWolves to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 27% · edge +0.3 pts
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 51%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Wolves Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickWolves to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 27% · edge +0.3 pts
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Wolves Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 45%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 37%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Wolves to Win is fairly priced at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Wolves4
    Avg corners for
    Fulham5.8
    Wolves9
    Avg total corners
    Fulham10.8
    Wolves1.6
    Avg yellow cards
    Fulham1.6
    Wolves11.4
    Avg shots
    Fulham13.4
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 54% · edge +4.6 pts
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 59%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    5Wolves wins
    2Draws
    3Fulham wins
    01 Nov 2025Fulham v Wolves3-0
    25 Feb 2025Wolves v Fulham1-2
    23 Nov 2024Fulham v Wolves1-4
    09 Mar 2024Wolves v Fulham2-1
    27 Nov 2023Fulham v Wolves3-2
    24 Feb 2023Fulham v Wolves1-1
    Market aligned with main pickWolves to WinBetfred guide price · Model 27% vs implied 27% · edge +0.3 pts
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 47%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 37%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Wolves to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    11Fulham523815716-4
    20Wolves203831124-41
    Wolves sit in position 20, while Fulham sit in position 11, so table pressure belongs in the Wolves Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Wolves Over 2.5
    20%Fulham Over 2.5
    2.4H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Wolves sit at 60% and Fulham sit at 20% with the H2H average at 2.4 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Wolves v Fulham prediction

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