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Bolton crestBolton

Championship | Tue 13 Oct, 19:45

Wolves v Bolton Stats

Data last updated: Tue 13 Oct 2026, 11:52 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Wolves host Bolton in a Championship clash where both teams have shown attacking intent but defensive vulnerabilities. Wolves sit 5th with 14 points, while Bolton are 17th with 10 points, making this a key fixture for both sides to gain momentum. Wolves have scored 1.2 goals per game but conceded 1.4, while Bolton average 1.6 goals scored and 2.4 conceded, indicating an open game likely to produce goals. Bolton's high Over 2.5 rate of 80% contrasts with Wolves' 40%, suggesting Bolton's games often see more goals. This match promises tactical battles with offensive threats on both sides, setting the stage for a lively contest.

BT4Y best bet

Bolton Asian Handicap +1.25

  • Wolves concede 1.4 goals per game, Bolton concede 2.4, indicating defensive frailties.
  • Bolton's matches have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, Wolves 40%, showing Bolton's games are typically higher scoring.
  • Recent head-to-head average goals stand at 3.5 per game over 10 matches, supporting a goals-rich fixture.
  • Both teams average 14.4 shots per game, with Bolton having more shots on target (5 vs 3.6), highlighting attacking opportunities.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 66.9% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, supported by Bolton's high scoring and defensive record combined with Wolves' moderate goal concession. The average 3.5 goals in their last 10 meetings and Bolton's 80% Over 2.5 rate reinforce the likelihood of a goals-abundant match. Both teams generate similar shot volumes, with Bolton's greater shots on target indicating finishing quality. The price at 1.62 offers a small positive edge, making Over 2.5 Goals a sensible selection for this fixture.

Model Chance50.3% model chance
Strong positive
Bolton Over 2.5 Rate80%
Strong positive
H2H Average Goals3.5 goals per game
Positive
Shots on TargetBolton 5.0 vs Wolves 3.6
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as Bolton's high-scoring style meets Wolves' solid offensive capabilities. Bolton's defensive struggles and Wolves' ability to create chances suggest multiple goals are likely. The data and tactical outlook favor Over 2.5 Goals in this Championship fixture.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goals market

“Bolton's games consistently feature goals due to their attacking approach and defensive lapses, while Wolves' offensive players like Fer López and Raúl Jiménez can capitalize on chances, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling call.”

Key Data Signals

Bolton Asian Handicap +1.25 evidence

Wolves concede 1.4 goals per game, Bolton concede 2.4, indicating defensive frailties.

Bolton's matches have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, Wolves 40%, showing Bolton's games are typically higher scoring.

Recent head-to-head average goals stand at 3.5 per game over 10 matches, supporting a goals-rich fixture.

Both teams average 14.4 shots per game, with Bolton having more shots on target (5 vs 3.6), highlighting attacking opportunities.

What To Watch In The Data

Bolton Asian Handicap +1.25 notes

  • In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 3.5, indicating a history of high-scoring encounters.
  • Bolton's recent matches have an 80% Over 2.5 rate, while Wolves' is 40%.
  • This trend panel suggests a tempo and style conducive to multiple goals, with Bolton's attacking openness and Wolves' offensive capabilities combining to produce a lively fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Wolves1.2
Avg goals scored
Bolton1.6
Wolves1.4
Avg goals conceded
Bolton2.4
Wolves40%
BTTS rate
Bolton60%
Wolves40%
Over 2.5 goals
Bolton80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.1 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 85%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 49%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have shown tendencies for goals and BTTS. Bolton's 80% Over 2.5 rate and 60% BTTS rate contrast with Wolves' more conservative 40% Over 2.5 and 40% BTTS rates. The last 10 head-to-head matches average 3.5 goals, supporting a goal-rich encounter with both teams likely to score.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 56% · edge +11.1 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Bolton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Bolton to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 56%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The model rates Bolton Asian Handicap +1.25 at 50.3% on the latest available numbers.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Wolves

LWWDL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 2L
10 Oct 2026A Middlesbrough0-1
20 Sep 2026H West Brom1-0
13 Sep 2026A Sheffield Utd1-0
06 Sep 2026A Birmingham2-2
01 Sep 2026A West Ham2-4

Bolton

LWWLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 5L
10 Oct 2026H Stoke City1-2
20 Sep 2026A Norwich4-3
12 Sep 2026H Cardiff1-0
08 Sep 2026H West Ham2-3
05 Sep 2026A Millwall0-4
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 51% vs implied 36% · edge +15 pts
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Load more odds for this section
Bolton Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 40%
4
Check odds @ 4
Bolton to WinBetMGM guide price · model 28%
7.5
Check odds @ 7.5
DrawBet365 guide price · model 28%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 77%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Wolves Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 59%
1.23
Check odds @ 1.23
Wolves to WinBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Recent form data shows Wolves have scored 1.2 goals per game and conceded 1.4, while Bolton score 1.6 but concede 2.4, highlighting Bolton's defensive vulnerabilities. Bolton's 80% Over 2.5 rate contrasts with Wolves' 40%, indicating Bolton's matches tend to be higher scoring. This recent form supports the expectation of a match with multiple goals.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Wolves Over 2.5
80%Bolton Over 2.5
3.5H2H avg goals
In the last 10 meetings, the average goals per game is 3.5, indicating a history of high-scoring encounters. Bolton's recent matches have an 80% Over 2.5 rate, while Wolves' is 40%. This trend panel suggests a tempo and style conducive to multiple goals, with Bolton's attacking openness and Wolves' offensive capabilities combining to produce a lively fixture.

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