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Watford crestWatford
v
Burnley crestBurnley

Championship | Sat 10 Oct, 15:00

Watford v Burnley Stats

Data last updated: Fri 09 Oct 2026, 23:33 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Watford and Burnley meet in a Championship clash where both teams have struggled for consistent form and goals this season. Watford sits 20th with 8 points, while Burnley is 24th with 4 points, both eager to climb the table. Recent matches show Watford scoring less than a goal per game and conceding more than one, while Burnley has a slightly better attack but also leaky defense. The tactical battle will likely hinge on how both sides manage to break down each other's defenses, with an expectation of open play and goal-scoring chances for both sides.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Burnley has a 100% BTTS rate this season, Watford 40%.
  • Both teams average around 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating moderate scoring games.
  • Burnley averages 12.4 shots per game with 3.4 on target, Watford 10.2 shots with 2.8 on target.
  • Watford and Burnley have averaged 2 goals per game in their last 10 meetings.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Both Teams to Score at 76% chance, well above the implied market chance of 61.7%, indicating strong value. Burnley's perfect BTTS rate this season contrasts with Watford's lower rate, but Watford's defensive vulnerabilities and Burnley's attacking threat, led by Z. Flemming's high shot volume and goal threat, support the expectation of goals at both ends. The recent H2H average of 2 goals per game and balanced attacking stats reinforce the likelihood of both teams scoring. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model Chance76% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+14.3 pts)
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance76% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+14.3 pts)
Positive
Burnley BTTS Rate100%
Strong positive
Watford Defensive Record1.4 goals conceded per game
Positive
Z. Flemming Goal Threat2.14 shots on target per 90
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown defensive frailties and attacking intent, making Both Teams to Score a logical choice. Burnley's consistent scoring and Watford's tendency to concede create a tactical scenario favoring goals at both ends, supported by recent form and player attacking profiles.

Main risk

The primary risk to this exact selection is Burnley’s broader inability to hold onto leads, demonstrated by their 93rd-minute capitulation against Derby County.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking threat and defensive vulnerabilities

“Burnley's attacking players, especially Z. Flemming, pose a significant threat, while Watford's defensive lapses suggest both sides can find the net in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Burnley has a 100% BTTS rate this season, Watford 40%.

Both teams average around 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating moderate scoring games.

Burnley averages 12.4 shots per game with 3.4 on target, Watford 10.2 shots with 2.8 on target.

Watford and Burnley have averaged 2 goals per game in their last 10 meetings.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last 10 matches between these teams, the average goals per game is 2, indicating a moderate scoring tempo.
  • This trend, combined with both teams' attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities, suggests a reasonable chance for over 2.5 goals and BTTS outcomes in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Watford0.6
Avg goals scored
Burnley1
Watford1.4
Avg goals conceded
Burnley1.6
Watford40%
BTTS rate
Burnley100%
Watford40%
Over 2.5 goals
Burnley40%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 59%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 27%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Burnley's 100% BTTS rate contrasts with Watford's 40%, but Watford's defensive concessions and Burnley's attacking volume suggest goals at both ends. The last 10 meetings averaging 2 goals per game further support the likelihood of both teams scoring in this match.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 3.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Watford to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Burnley Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
Watford Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Burnley to WinBetUK guide price · model 43%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
The 76% for Both Teams to Score sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (+14.3 pts). Watford show a 40% BTTS rate and Burnley show a 100% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Watford’s persistent defensive frailty, failing to keep clean sheets in 20 of 21 matches, combined with Burnley conceding 11 goals in four away games.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more Championship analysisfull betting preview for Watford v Burnleycorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Watford

LLWLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 2D 4L
18 Sep 2026A Bristol City0-1
12 Sep 2026H Stoke City1-2
08 Sep 2026H Preston2-1
05 Sep 2026A West Brom0-1
01 Sep 2026A Swansea0-2

Burnley

DLDLD
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 4D 4L
19 Sep 2026H Derby1-1
12 Sep 2026A Swansea1-3
08 Sep 2026A Wrexham1-1
05 Sep 2026H Bristol City1-2
02 Sep 2026H Middlesbrough1-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 62% · edge +8.7 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Watford to WinBetMGM guide price · model 41%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Burnley Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
Watford Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Burnley to WinBetUK guide price · model 43%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
DrawBet365 guide price · model 29%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Both teams have earned 3 points recently but show contrasting scoring trends: Burnley scores 1 goal per game with a perfect BTTS record, while Watford scores 0.6 and concedes 1.4 per game. This form suggests Burnley is more consistent in attack, but Watford's defense remains vulnerable.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Watford Over 2.5
40%Burnley Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 matches between these teams, the average goals per game is 2, indicating a moderate scoring tempo. This trend, combined with both teams' attacking tendencies and defensive vulnerabilities, suggests a reasonable chance for over 2.5 goals and BTTS outcomes in this fixture.

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