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Shamrock Rovers crestShamrock Rovers

Premier Division | Fri 19 Jun, 19:45

Waterford v Shamrock Rovers Stats

Data last updated: Sat 20 Jun 2026, 10:30 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Premier Division clash features Waterford hosting Shamrock Rovers, with Waterford struggling near the bottom of the table and Shamrock Rovers leading the standings. Waterford's recent matches have been high-scoring affairs, averaging 2.4 goals per game while conceding 1.6, reflecting an open style that invites goals. Shamrock Rovers, despite their top position, have a solid attack averaging 1 goal per game but a tighter defense. The contrasting styles and Waterford's home urgency set the stage for a potentially goal-rich encounter under Friday night lights.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • Waterford has scored 2.4 goals per game recently, with 100% of matches going over 2.5 goals.
  • Shamrock Rovers have a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, contributing to a combined attacking threat.
  • Both teams average around 15 shots per game, indicating active offensive play.
  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.6 goals, supporting a goal-heavy fixture.
  • Waterford concedes 1.6 goals per game, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities to exploit.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model projects a 67.9% chance for over 2.5 goals, supported by Waterford's consistent high-scoring matches and Shamrock Rovers' attacking output. The combined average shots on target and goal rates from both teams indicate an open game with multiple scoring opportunities. The recent head-to-head average of 2.6 goals further reinforces the likelihood of a goal-filled contest. No price warnings apply, making this a standard stake recommendation based on solid attacking data and match context.

Waterford recent goals per game2.4
Strong positive
Shamrock Rovers recent goals per game1.0
Positive
Over 2.5 goals rate Waterford100%
Strong positive
Over 2.5 goals rate Shamrock Rovers60%
Positive
Average goals in last 10 H2H2.6
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a lively encounter with Waterford pushing forward aggressively at home and Shamrock Rovers looking to maintain their top spot through effective attacking play. The attacking tendencies and recent scoring trends suggest over 2.5 goals is a sensible call, reflecting both teams' willingness to engage in open play and create chances.

Main risk

The main risk is Waterford's defensive lapses could be offset if Shamrock Rovers adopt a more conservative approach, limiting goal-scoring chances.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and tactical openness

“Waterford's offensive urgency combined with Shamrock Rovers' balanced attack sets up a fixture ripe for goals. The data points to a match where defensive caution is secondary to attacking ambition, making over 2.5 goals a compelling selection.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Waterford has scored 2.4 goals per game recently, with 100% of matches going over 2.5 goals.

Shamrock Rovers have a 60% over 2.5 goals rate, contributing to a combined attacking threat.

Both teams average around 15 shots per game, indicating active offensive play.

The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.6 goals, supporting a goal-heavy fixture.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals tally is 2.6, supporting a trend towards multiple goals in this fixture.
  • This sample suggests a history of open games with both teams contributing to the scoreline, reinforcing the over 2.5 goals market as a logical expectation.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Waterford2.4
Avg goals scored
Shamrock Rovers1
Waterford1.6
Avg goals conceded
Shamrock Rovers1.2
Waterford80%
BTTS rate
Shamrock Rovers60%
Waterford100%
Over 2.5 goals
Shamrock Rovers60%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 59% · edge +9.1 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 28%
2
Check odds @ 2
Waterford's 80% BTTS rate and Shamrock Rovers' 60% indicate both teams frequently find the net, supporting a goal-rich game. Their combined recent goals and shots data point to open play with chances at both ends, favoring over 2.5 goals and BTTS possibilities.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 59% · edge +9.1 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
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Waterford to WinBetUK guide price · model 60%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Waterford Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 41%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Shamrock Rovers Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
The over 2.5 goals market aligns well with the model's 67.9% probability, indicating a strong chance for multiple goals. Without visible , the market appears fairly priced with no immediate , suggesting a standard stake approach rather than a value bet.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Waterford4
Avg corners for
Shamrock Rovers4
Waterford7.4
Avg total corners
Shamrock Rovers7.6
Waterford3.2
Avg yellow cards
Shamrock Rovers2.2
Waterford14.6
Avg shots
Shamrock Rovers15.8
Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 41%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Both teams average four corners per game, reflecting balanced territorial exchanges and set-piece opportunities. Waterford's higher yellow card average suggests a more physical approach, potentially disrupting rhythm but also leading to set-piece chances. Shot volumes near 15 per game underline active offensive pressure from both sides.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Waterford

WDLWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 4L
12 Jun 2026H Sligo Rovers4-0
29 May 2026A Drogheda United3-3
22 May 2026A Shelbourne1-2
18 May 2026H Drogheda United2-1
15 May 2026H Derry City2-2

Shamrock Rovers

LWWLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 0D 4L
12 Jun 2026A Shelbourne1-2
29 May 2026H St Patrick's Athl.1-0
25 May 2026A Bohemians2-1
22 May 2026H Sligo Rovers1-2
15 May 2026A Dundalk0-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 85% vs implied 44% · edge +41.2 pts
2.3
Check odds @ 2.3
Load more odds for this section
Waterford to WinBetUK guide price · model 60%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Waterford Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Shamrock Rovers Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Shamrock Rovers to WinBet365 guide price · model 24%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Waterford's recent form shows a perfect 100% over 2.5 goals rate, emphasizing their open and high-scoring matches. Shamrock Rovers maintain a 60% rate, reflecting a tendency for matches with multiple goals. This recent form data supports expectations for a lively, goal-filled encounter.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Waterford wins
1Draws
8Shamrock Rovers wins
01 May 2026Shamrock Rovers v Waterford1-0
03 Apr 2026Waterford v Shamrock Rovers1-1
22 Sep 2025Waterford v Shamrock Rovers1-2
27 Jun 2025Shamrock Rovers v Waterford1-0
16 May 2025Waterford v Shamrock Rovers1-3
11 Apr 2025Shamrock Rovers v Waterford2-0
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 59% · edge +9.1 pts
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Load more odds for this section
Waterford to WinBetUK guide price · model 60%
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 76%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
DrawBetfred guide price · model 25%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Shamrock Rovers to WinBet365 guide price · model 24%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.6 goals, indicating a consistent pattern of multiple goals when these teams meet. While the sample is moderate, it suggests a tendency for open, attacking games that favor the over 2.5 goals market in this fixture.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Premier Division

Waterford21
Played
Shamrock Rovers22
Waterford1.2
Avg goals for
Shamrock Rovers1.5
Waterford2
Avg goals against
Shamrock Rovers0.9
Waterford2
Clean sheets
Shamrock Rovers9
Best odds for this sectionWaterford to WinBetUK guide price · Model 60% vs implied 21% · edge +38.9 pts
4.75
Check odds @ 4.75
Load more odds for this section
Waterford Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 69%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Shamrock Rovers Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.35
Check odds @ 1.35
Shamrock Rovers to WinBet365 guide price · model 24%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Season-long data reveals Waterford's attack is prolific but coupled with a porous defense conceding 1.6 goals per game. Shamrock Rovers balance a solid attack with a tighter defense, conceding fewer goals. These contrasting profiles suggest a match where Waterford's offensive pressure could breach Shamrock Rovers' defense, contributing to over 2.5 goals.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Shamrock Rovers4322134515
10Waterford14212811-17
Waterford sits at the bottom of the table, likely increasing their urgency to score at home, while Shamrock Rovers lead the league, aiming to maintain control. The standings context implies Waterford may take more risks offensively, increasing goal chances, whereas Shamrock Rovers may balance attack and defense to secure points.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Waterford Over 2.5
60%Shamrock Rovers Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 meetings, the average goals tally is 2.6, supporting a trend towards multiple goals in this fixture. This sample suggests a history of open games with both teams contributing to the scoreline, reinforcing the over 2.5 goals market as a logical expectation.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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