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Vis Pesaro crestVis Pesaro
v
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 crestGuidonia Montecelio 1937

Serie C - Girone B | Sun 27 Sep, 16:30

Vis Pesaro v Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Stats

Data last updated: Mon 28 Sep 2026, 02:48 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie C Girone B clash features Guidonia Montecelio 1937 traveling to face Vis Pesaro, who are struggling near the bottom of the table with just one point so far. Guidonia Montecelio 1937 sit comfortably in 7th place with nine points, showing better defensive solidity and more consistent results. Vis Pesaro have conceded heavily, while Guidonia Montecelio 1937 have maintained a tighter defense, making them the stronger side in form and structure heading into this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 to Win

  • Guidonia Montecelio 1937 holds a strong away record and sits 13 places above Vis Pesaro in the standings.
  • Vis Pesaro have conceded an average of 2.6 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.
  • Guidonia Montecelio 1937 has conceded just 1 goal per game, showing defensive discipline.
  • Recent form favors Guidonia Montecelio 1937 with six points compared to Vis Pesaro's single point.
  • Head-to-head meetings average 1.5 goals, suggesting a moderately low-scoring contest.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 is favored to win with a of 68.6%, reflecting their superior defensive record and better recent form. Vis Pesaro's defensive frailties and low points tally contrast sharply with Guidonia Montecelio 1937's more balanced performances. The price offers positive value given the implied chance of 48.8%, making this a compelling selection based on form and defensive stability. No data limitations affect the in this pick.

Model Chance63.8% model chance vs 48.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance63.8% model chance vs 48.8% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormGuidonia Montecelio 1937 with 6 points vs Vis Pesaro's 1 point
Positive
Defensive RecordGuidonia Montecelio 1937 concedes 1 goal per game vs Vis Pesaro's 2.6
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Guidonia Montecelio 1937's defensive resilience and superior recent form make them the logical choice to secure victory. Vis Pesaro's struggles at the back and low points tally suggest they will find it difficult to contain their opponents, tipping the balance clearly in favor of Guidonia Montecelio 1937.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive strength and form

“Guidonia Montecelio 1937's disciplined defense and consistent performances away from home provide a solid foundation for a win here, especially against a Vis Pesaro side that has struggled to keep clean sheets.”

Key Data Signals

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 to Win evidence

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 holds a strong away record and sits 13 places above Vis Pesaro in the standings.

Vis Pesaro have conceded an average of 2.6 goals per game, indicating defensive vulnerabilities.

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 has conceded just 1 goal per game, showing defensive discipline.

Recent form favors Guidonia Montecelio 1937 with six points compared to Vis Pesaro's single point.

What To Watch In The Data

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 to Win notes

  • The last two head-to-head meetings averaged 1.5 goals, suggesting a moderately low-scoring trend.
  • Vis Pesaro's recent matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, but Guidonia Montecelio 1937's more defensive style may temper the overall goal count, pointing to a balanced tempo with selective attacking bursts.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vis Pesaro1.2
Avg goals scored
Guidonia Montecelio 19371
Vis Pesaro2.6
Avg goals conceded
Guidonia Montecelio 19371
Vis Pesaro100%
BTTS rate
Guidonia Montecelio 193780%
Vis Pesaro100%
Over 2.5 goals
Guidonia Montecelio 193720%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 55% · edge +15 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 69%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 33%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Vis Pesaro's matches have seen 100% over 2.5 goals and BTTS rates, highlighting defensive frailty and open games. Guidonia Montecelio 1937's games show more defensive control with only 20% over 2.5 goals and 80% BTTS, indicating a more cautious approach. This mix suggests a match with goals but possibly controlled by Guidonia Montecelio 1937's defense.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickGuidonia Montecelio 1937 to WinBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The 63.8% for Guidonia Montecelio 1937 to Win sits against roughly 48.8% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Guidonia Montecelio 1937 have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 1 for Vis Pesaro.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vis Pesaro

LLLLD
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 5L
21 Sep 2026A Spezia1-3
16 Sep 2026H Reggiana1-4
12 Sep 2026A Forli1-2
05 Sep 2026H Ostia Mare1-2
30 Aug 2026H Perugia2-2

Guidonia Montecelio 1937

DDDWL
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 1L
21 Sep 2026H Livorno1-1
16 Sep 2026A Latina1-1
12 Sep 2026H Reggiana1-1
05 Sep 2026H Pianese1-0
30 Aug 2026A Atalanta II1-2
Market aligned with main pickGuidonia Montecelio 1937 to WinBet365 guide price · Model 64% vs implied 49% · edge +15 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.6
Check odds @ 1.6
Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Guidonia Montecelio 1937's six points from recent matches contrast sharply with Vis Pesaro's single point, reflecting better momentum and . This form disparity suggests Guidonia Montecelio 1937 enters the match with a tactical and psychological edge, increasing their chances of securing a win.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Vis Pesaro Over 2.5
20%Guidonia Montecelio 1937 Over 2.5
1.5H2H avg goals
The last two head-to-head meetings averaged 1.5 goals, suggesting a moderately low-scoring trend. Vis Pesaro's recent matches have all gone over 2.5 goals, but Guidonia Montecelio 1937's more defensive style may temper the overall goal count, pointing to a balanced tempo with selective attacking bursts.

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