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Vila Nova crestVila Nova
v
Cuiaba crestCuiaba

Serie B | Thu 08 Oct, 00:30

Vila Nova v Cuiaba Stats

Data last updated: Wed 07 Oct 2026, 08:23 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Vila Nova hosts Cuiaba in a Serie B clash where both teams bring contrasting attacking styles. Vila Nova ranks second with strong defensive discipline but moderate attacking output, while Cuiaba sits tenth, showing a more open approach with a higher goal rate. Recent form suggests a tactical battle with Vila Nova's solid defense facing Cuiaba's more frequent offensive forays. The match promises territorial skirmishes and set-piece opportunities, setting the stage for a contest likely to feature numerous corners as both sides seek to break the deadlock.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Vila Nova averages 4.2 corners per game, Cuiaba 6.0, combining for over 10 corners on average.
  • Both teams maintain disciplined defensive records, encouraging attacking play from wide areas.
  • Recent matches show Vila Nova's defensive solidity but Cuiaba's higher attacking tempo increases corner potential.
  • Player data highlights active attackers like Aiyran and Vinicius Peixoto who generate shots from wide positions, boosting corner chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 9.5 Corners at a 67.9% chance, well above the implied market chance of 55.6%, indicating clear value. Both teams' corner averages combine to over 10 per game, supported by attacking styles that favor wing play and set-piece creation. Vila Nova's solid defense forces Cuiaba to rely on wide attacks, while Cuiaba's higher corner average reflects their offensive intent. is strong at 82%, with no data limitations affecting the assessment.

Combined corner average10.2 corners per game
Strong positive
Model chance vs implied chance67.9% model chance vs 55.6% implied (+12.3 pts)
Strong positive
Attacking styles favoring cornersWide play and set-piece reliance
Positive
Confidence level82%
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match where Vila Nova's defensive resilience meets Cuiaba's more aggressive wing play, resulting in frequent corner situations. The statistical corner averages and attacking tendencies of both teams support a high corner count, making Over 9.5 Corners a tactically and data-backed selection for this fixture.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · corners market rationale

“This fixture's corner market stands out due to the contrasting styles: Vila Nova's defensive solidity invites Cuiaba's wide attacks, naturally increasing corner opportunities. The data strongly supports a high corner count, making this a compelling angle for bettors.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Vila Nova averages 4.2 corners per game, Cuiaba 6.0, combining for over 10 corners on average.

Both teams maintain disciplined defensive records, encouraging attacking play from wide areas.

Recent matches show Vila Nova's defensive solidity but Cuiaba's higher attacking tempo increases corner potential.

Player data highlights active attackers like Aiyran and Vinicius Peixoto who generate shots from wide positions, boosting corner chances.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • Over the last ten matches, the average goals stand at 2.5, with Cuiaba showing a 60% Over 2.5 rate, indicating open play tendencies.
  • This tempo and attacking intent suggest a match where both sides generate chances from wide positions, supporting a high corner count rather than a goal-heavy outcome.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vila Nova1.4
Avg goals scored
Cuiaba1.8
Vila Nova0.2
Avg goals conceded
Cuiaba0.8
Vila Nova20%
BTTS rate
Cuiaba20%
Vila Nova0%
Over 2.5 goals
Cuiaba60%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 67% · edge -1.9 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
5
Check odds @ 5
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
While Vila Nova averages only 1.4 goals per game and Cuiaba 1.8, both teams show moderate BTTS rates of 20%, indicating a cautious approach to scoring. This defensive solidity contrasts with the attacking pressure that leads to corners rather than goals, supporting a focus on set-piece opportunities over goal markets.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionVila Nova Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 53% · edge +12.1 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Vila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Cuiaba to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Cuiaba Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
The 67.9% for Over 9.5 Corners sits against roughly 55.6% implied by the current price (+12.3 pts). Cuiaba lead the corner sample at 6 per match, with Vila Nova lower at 4.2.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vila Nova

WWWDW
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 2D 1L
03 Oct 2026A Botafogo SP1-0
26 Sep 2026H Londrina2-0
18 Sep 2026H America Mineiro1-0
15 Sep 2026A Avai1-1
10 Sep 2026H Goias2-0

Cuiaba

WLWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 2D 2L
03 Oct 2026H Ponte Preta2-0
27 Sep 2026A CRB0-3
22 Sep 2026H Nautico Recife3-0
13 Sep 2026A Novorizontino1-1
09 Sep 2026H Athletic Club3-0
Best odds for this sectionVila Nova Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 53% · edge +12.1 pts
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
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Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 82%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Vila Nova to WinBet365 guide price · model 56%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 55%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Cuiaba to WinBet365 guide price · model 28%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Cuiaba Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.9
Check odds @ 1.9
DrawBetfred guide price · model 26%
3
Check odds @ 3
Recent form shows Vila Nova accumulating 13 points with a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.2 goals per game, while Cuiaba has 10 points with a higher goal concession rate. Vila Nova's zero Over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with Cuiaba's 60%, indicating a tactical clash that may limit goals but encourage wing play and corners as teams seek breakthroughs.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Vila Nova Over 2.5
60%Cuiaba Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last ten matches, the average goals stand at 2.5, with Cuiaba showing a 60% Over 2.5 rate, indicating open play tendencies. This tempo and attacking intent suggest a match where both sides generate chances from wide positions, supporting a high corner count rather than a goal-heavy outcome.

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