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VfL Wolfsburg crestVfL Wolfsburg
v
SC Paderborn 07 crestSC Paderborn 07

Bundesliga | Thu 21 May, 19:30

VfL Wolfsburg v SC Paderborn 07 Stats

Data last updated: Mon 29 Jun 2026, 15:05 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

VfL Wolfsburg face SC Paderborn 07 in Bundesliga on Thu 21 May, 19:30. VfL Wolfsburg come in with 8 recent points and 1.2 goals per match, while SC Paderborn 07 have 0 points and - goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

VfL Wolfsburg to Win

  • At 1.7, VfL Wolfsburg Win implies roughly 59%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 74%.
  • VfL Wolfsburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 0 for SC Paderborn 07.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 74% for VfL Wolfsburg Win sits against roughly 59% implied by the current price. VfL Wolfsburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 0 for SC Paderborn 07.

Model chance vs price74% model chance against roughly 59% implied
Strong positive
VfL Wolfsburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 8.Visible data support
Positive
Price sensitivityEdge +15.2 pts
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: VfL Wolfsburg Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers VfL Wolfsburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 0 for SC Paderborn 07. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

VfL Wolfsburg Win evidence

VfL Wolfsburg have the stronger recent points return, taking 8 points from the sample compared with 0 for SC Paderborn 07.

What To Watch In The Data

VfL Wolfsburg Win notes

    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    VfL Wolfsburg

    WLDDW
    Last 52W 2D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 3D 5L
    16 May 2026A FC St. Pauli3-1
    09 May 2026H Bayern München0-1
    03 May 2026A SC Freiburg1-1
    25 Apr 2026H Borussia Mönchengladbach0-0
    18 Apr 2026A Union Berlin2-1

    SC Paderborn 07

    Last 50W 0D 0L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 0D 0L

    No recent match sample is available for SC Paderborn 07 yet.

    Market aligned with main pickVfL Wolfsburg to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15.2 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
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    VfL Wolfsburg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    16VfL Wolfsburg29347819-24
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    VfL Wolfsburg1.2
    Avg goals scored
    SC Paderborn 07-
    VfL Wolfsburg0.8
    Avg goals conceded
    SC Paderborn 07-
    VfL Wolfsburg60%
    BTTS rate
    SC Paderborn 07-
    VfL Wolfsburg40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    SC Paderborn 07-
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 67% vs implied 57% · edge +9.6 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
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    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 73%
    1.22
    Check odds @ 1.22
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 49%
    2.05
    Check odds @ 2.05
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 37%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickVfL Wolfsburg to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15.2 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    VfL Wolfsburg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 56%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    VfL Wolfsburg to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    3VfL Wolfsburg wins
    2Draws
    0SC Paderborn 07 wins
    04 Jan 2022VfL Wolfsburg v SC Paderborn 075-4
    02 Feb 2020SC Paderborn 07 v VfL Wolfsburg2-4
    31 Aug 2019VfL Wolfsburg v SC Paderborn 071-1
    10 May 2015SC Paderborn 07 v VfL Wolfsburg1-3
    14 Dec 2014VfL Wolfsburg v SC Paderborn 071-1
    Market aligned with main pickVfL Wolfsburg to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15.2 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 67%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 55%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    The head-to-head sample gives context for VfL Wolfsburg to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    VfL Wolfsburg6.8
    Avg corners for
    SC Paderborn 07-
    VfL Wolfsburg12.4
    Avg total corners
    SC Paderborn 07-
    VfL Wolfsburg1.4
    Avg yellow cards
    SC Paderborn 07-
    VfL Wolfsburg13.2
    Avg shots
    SC Paderborn 07-
    Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 49% vs implied 50% · edge -0.8 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 3.5 CardsBetUK guide price · model 56%
    1.62
    Check odds @ 1.62
    Over 4.5 Cards needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Season team stats

    Bundesliga

    VfL Wolfsburg36
    Played
    SC Paderborn 072
    VfL Wolfsburg1.3
    Avg goals for
    SC Paderborn 071
    VfL Wolfsburg2
    Avg goals against
    SC Paderborn 070.5
    VfL Wolfsburg3
    Clean sheets
    SC Paderborn 071
    Market aligned with main pickVfL Wolfsburg to WinBet365 guide price · Model 74% vs implied 59% · edge +15.2 pts
    1.7
    Check odds @ 1.7
    Load more odds for this section
    VfL Wolfsburg Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
    1.4
    Check odds @ 1.4
    Season data supports VfL Wolfsburg to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%VfL Wolfsburg Over 2.5
    -SC Paderborn 07 Over 2.5
    4.6H2H avg goals

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    Betting context

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