Willem II

Excelsior

Eredivisie | Sat 05 Sep, 20:00

Willem II v Excelsior Stats

Data last updated: Fri 04 Sep 2026, 07:53 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Willem II and Excelsior meet in an Eredivisie clash where attacking intent is clear from both sides despite contrasting league positions. Willem II, struggling near the bottom with just one point, have been involved in high-scoring matches, while Excelsior, sitting mid-table with six points, have shown more defensive solidity but maintain a strong offensive output. Both teams have recorded 100% Over 2.5 Goals rates recently, setting the stage for an open encounter with plenty of goalmouth action under the lights on Saturday.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

Both teams have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches, indicating consistent high-scoring games.
Willem II concedes an average of 3.33 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.
Excelsior averages 2.33 goals scored per game, showing strong attacking capability.
Head-to-head meetings average 2.7 goals, supporting the likelihood of multiple goals.
Willem II and Excelsior both average double-digit shots per game, reflecting offensive pressure.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 78% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, well above the 60.6% implied by the , indicating strong value. Both teams have consistently featured in high-scoring matches, with Willem II conceding heavily and Excelsior maintaining a potent attack. The head-to-head average goals and recent form data reinforce the expectation of an open game with multiple goals. No data limitations affect , making this a solid value bet with standard stake guidance.

Model Chance78% probability of Over 2.5 Goals

Strong positive

Implied Chance60.6% from odds 1.65

Positive

Recent FormBoth teams 100% Over 2.5 rate

Strong positive

Defensive WeaknessWillem II concedes 3.33 goals per game

Strong positive

Attacking OutputExcelsior scores 2.33 goals per game

Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open game with both sides pushing forward, as Willem II's defensive struggles combine with Excelsior's attacking threat. The data supports multiple goals given recent scoring trends and shot volumes, making Over 2.5 Goals a logical choice for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential and defensive vulnerabilities

“This fixture promises attacking football with Willem II's porous defense and Excelsior's consistent goal threat creating a fertile environment for goals. The statistical indicators strongly favor Over 2.5 Goals as a compelling market.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams have a 100% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches, indicating consistent high-scoring games.

Willem II concedes an average of 3.33 goals per game, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities.

Excelsior averages 2.33 goals scored per game, showing strong attacking capability.

Head-to-head meetings average 2.7 goals, supporting the likelihood of multiple goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating a history of open games.
Recent matches show a tempo favoring attacking play and defensive gaps, suggesting the Over 2.5 Goals trend is likely to continue in this fixture.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Willem II1.33

Avg goals scored

Excelsior2.33

Willem II3.33

Avg goals conceded

Excelsior1

Willem II100%

BTTS rate

Excelsior67%

Willem II100%

Over 2.5 goals

Excelsior100%

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 77% vs implied 62% · edge +15 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%

1.18

Check odds @ 1.18

Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 55%

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 26%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Both teams have demonstrated a strong tendency for high-scoring matches, with Willem II conceding heavily and Excelsior scoring regularly. The head-to-head average of 2.7 goals per game further supports the likelihood of multiple goals and potential BTTS scenarios.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 77% vs implied 62% · edge +15 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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Excelsior Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 65%

Check odds @ 2

Excelsior to WinBetMGM guide price · model 59%

2.3

Check odds @ 2.3

BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

Willem II Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Willem II to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

Check odds @ 3

DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively at 1.65 with an implied chance of 60.6%, while the model estimates a 78% probability. This significant suggests the price is favorable and worth backing at standard stakes without caution flags.

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Useful next reads

Eredivisie hub corners trends hub player stats betting angles stats dashboard football analysis hub prediction centre best bets research acca fixture filtering

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Willem II1.5

Avg corners for

Excelsior5

Willem II5.5

Avg total corners

Excelsior10.33

Willem II1

Avg yellow cards

Excelsior1

Willem II11

Avg shots

Excelsior12.67

Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.

2.38

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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 39%

1.83

Check odds @ 1.83

Over 8.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 45%

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

Both teams generate a healthy number of shots per game—Willem II averages 11.33 and Excelsior 12.67—with Excelsior also averaging more shots on target. The corner counts are moderate but combined with shot volume indicate sustained attacking pressure. Discipline is relatively low, with few cards expected to disrupt flow.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Willem II

DLL

Last 50W 1D 2L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 1D 2L

30 Aug 2026H Heerenveen2-2

15 Aug 2026H NEC Nijmegen1-4

08 Aug 2026A GO Ahead Eagles1-4

Excelsior

WLW

Last 52W 0D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 102W 0D 1L

29 Aug 2026H Sparta Rotterdam2-1

15 Aug 2026H PSV Eindhoven1-2

07 Aug 2026A Cambuur4-0

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 84% vs implied 74% · edge +10.5 pts

1.36

Check odds @ 1.36

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Excelsior Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 65%

Check odds @ 2

Excelsior to WinBetMGM guide price · model 59%

2.3

Check odds @ 2.3

Willem II Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Willem II to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

Check odds @ 3

Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 48%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

Recent form data shows both teams have featured in matches exceeding 2.5 goals consistently, with Willem II at 100% and Excelsior also at 100%. This trend highlights their attacking openness and defensive frailties, reinforcing the expectation for a high-scoring encounter.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Willem II wins

4Draws

3Excelsior wins

30 Dec 2022Willem II v Excelsior3-1

17 Jul 2021Willem II v Excelsior2-0

21 Apr 2019Excelsior v Willem II1-1

15 Sep 2018Willem II v Excelsior2-2

06 Apr 2018Excelsior v Willem II2-1

13 Aug 2017Willem II v Excelsior1-2

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 77% vs implied 62% · edge +15 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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Excelsior to WinBetMGM guide price · model 59%

2.3

Check odds @ 2.3

BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

Willem II to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

Check odds @ 3

DrawBet365 guide price · model 18%

3.5

Check odds @ 3.5

The ten previous meetings between Willem II and Excelsior have averaged 2.7 goals per game, demonstrating a pattern of relatively high-scoring contests. This historical trend supports the expectation of multiple goals in the upcoming match, adding context to the Over 2.5 Goals selection.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Eredivisie

Willem II3

Played

Excelsior0

Willem II1.3

Avg goals for

Excelsior-

Willem II3.3

Avg goals against

Excelsior-

Willem II0

Clean sheets

Excelsior-

Best odds for this sectionExcelsior Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts

Check odds @ 2

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Excelsior to WinBetMGM guide price · model 59%

2.3

Check odds @ 2.3

Willem II Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

Willem II to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%

Check odds @ 3

Season-long statistics reveal Willem II's defensive struggles with 3.33 goals conceded per game and Excelsior's strong attack averaging 2.33 goals scored. Both teams' offensive and defensive profiles align with the Over 2.5 Goals market, indicating sustained scoring potential.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
9	Excelsior	6	3	2	0	1	4
15	Willem II	1	3	0	1	2	-6

While Willem II sits near the bottom with only one point and Excelsior holds a mid-table position, the standings reflect contrasting pressures. Willem II's need to improve results may drive attacking risk, while Excelsior's stable position allows them to play with , both factors supporting goal-scoring chances.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Willem II Over 2.5

100%Excelsior Over 2.5

2.7H2H avg goals

Over the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.7, indicating a history of open games. Recent matches show a tempo favoring attacking play and defensive gaps, suggesting the Over 2.5 Goals trend is likely to continue in this fixture.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Willem II v Excelsior Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Willem II

Excelsior

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Football Stats Hub

Willem II v Excelsior Stats

Match Report

Over 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Willem II

Excelsior

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