Football Stats Hub

Vancouver Whitecaps crestVancouver Whitecaps
v
DC United crestDC United

Major League Soccer | Sun 27 Sep, 03:30

Vancouver Whitecaps v DC United Stats

Data last updated: Sat 26 Sep 2026, 07:59 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Vancouver Whitecaps host DC United in a Major League Soccer clash where discipline and intensity are likely to shape the contest. Vancouver leads the standings and has shown aggressive play, while DC United, positioned lower, will push hard to close the gap. Both teams have moderate scoring rates but a tendency for physical encounters, suggesting a match with frequent fouls and cautions. The competitive stakes and contrasting styles set the stage for a high-card game with tactical fouling and pressure moments expected throughout the 90 minutes.

BT4Y best bet

Over 4.5 Cards

  • Vancouver Whitecaps average 2.8 yellow cards per game, DC United 2.2, indicating frequent cautions.
  • Both teams have aggressive midfielders and attackers with notable card risk indexes.
  • Recent form shows Vancouver’s matches consistently exceed 4.5 cards, reflecting physical play.
  • Stroud has a high card risk with 4 yellows and 2.56 fouls per 90 minutes.
  • The model estimates a 63.5% chance for over 4.5 cards, well above the implied market chance.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 4.5 Cards due to both teams’ high foul and card rates, especially Vancouver’s 2.8 yellows per game and DC United’s physical midfield presence. Player-level data highlights individuals like Y. Stroud with elevated card risks, reinforcing the likelihood of multiple cautions. The match context of a top-ranked Vancouver facing a motivated DC United supports a competitive, intense game prone to disciplinary actions. No data limitations or price warnings apply, making this a strong value bet with an 18% edge over market .

Vancouver Yellow Cards Average2.8 per game
Strong positive
DC United Yellow Cards Average2.2 per game
Positive
Player Card RiskHigh card risk for Y. Diaby and J. Stroud
Strong positive
Model Probability60.5% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Market Implied Probability60.5% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a physically charged match as Vancouver Whitecaps’ aggressive style meets DC United’s determined midfield. The combination of high foul rates and key players prone to cautions suggests the game will surpass 4.5 cards. Vancouver’s top-table pressure and DC United’s fight for points create a scenario ripe for disciplinary action.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“This fixture’s intensity and player profiles point to a high-card game, with both sides showing tendencies for tactical fouling and aggressive challenges that will likely push the card count beyond four.”

Key Data Signals

Over 4.5 Cards evidence

Vancouver Whitecaps average 2.8 yellow cards per game, DC United 2.2, indicating frequent cautions.

Both teams have aggressive midfielders and attackers with notable card risk indexes.

Recent form shows Vancouver’s matches consistently exceed 4.5 cards, reflecting physical play.

Stroud has a high card risk with 4 yellows and 2.56 fouls per 90 minutes.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 4.5 Cards notes

  • In the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.67, indicating moderately open games.
  • However, the focus here is on card accumulation, with recent trends showing both teams engage in physical contests that typically produce multiple cautions, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals tempo but more importantly the high card count.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vancouver Whitecaps2.2
Avg goals scored
DC United0.8
Vancouver Whitecaps1
Avg goals conceded
DC United1.2
Vancouver Whitecaps40%
BTTS rate
DC United60%
Vancouver Whitecaps100%
Over 2.5 goals
DC United60%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · Model 85% vs implied 90% · edge -5.5 pts
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 37%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 44%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
While both teams have modest scoring rates, with Vancouver averaging 2.2 goals and DC United 0.8, the focus here is on physicality rather than goal output. The BTTS rates (40% Vancouver, 60% DC United) and average 2.67 goals in recent meetings suggest open play, but the card market is more influenced by fouling patterns than goal trends.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Major League Soccer fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionDC United Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 33% vs implied 18% · edge +15 pts
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 60%
1.7
Check odds @ 1.7
Vancouver Whitecaps Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.15
Check odds @ 1.15
DC United to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
9
Check odds @ 9
Vancouver Whitecaps to WinBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
DrawBetUK guide price · model 21%
7
Check odds @ 7
The 60.5% for Over 4.5 Cards sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Vancouver Whitecaps have the higher yellow-card average at 2.8, while DC United sit at 2.2.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vancouver Whitecaps

WLWLW
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
20 Sep 2026A Real Salt Lake3-0
13 Sep 2026H Austin1-2
10 Sep 2026H Los Angeles Galaxy3-0
06 Sep 2026H St. Louis City1-3
30 Aug 2026A Sporting Kansas City3-0

DC United

LDWDL
Last 51W 2D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 5D 3L
20 Sep 2026H Charlotte1-2
13 Sep 2026H Atlanta United FC0-0
10 Sep 2026H Columbus Crew2-1
30 Aug 2026H Los Angeles FC0-0
23 Aug 2026A Charlotte1-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 42% vs implied 27% · edge +15 pts
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Load more odds for this section
DC United Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 33%
5.5
Check odds @ 5.5
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
Vancouver Whitecaps Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.15
Check odds @ 1.15
DC United to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
9
Check odds @ 9
Vancouver Whitecaps to WinBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
DrawBetUK guide price · model 21%
7
Check odds @ 7
Recent matches involving Vancouver Whitecaps consistently exceed 4.5 cards, reflecting their aggressive style and tactical fouling. DC United’s form shows a slightly lower but still significant card frequency, supporting the expectation of a high-card game based on recent disciplinary trends and match intensity.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Vancouver Whitecaps Over 2.5
60%DC United Over 2.5
2.67H2H avg goals
In the last six head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.67, indicating moderately open games. However, the focus here is on card accumulation, with recent trends showing both teams engage in physical contests that typically produce multiple cautions, supporting the Over 2.5 Goals tempo but more importantly the high card count.

Loading deeper match data…