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Serie C - Girone B | Sat 03 Oct, 13:30

Vado v Forli Stats

Data last updated: Fri 02 Oct 2026, 10:42 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie C - Girone B clash features Forli visiting Vado, with Forli currently sitting 8th in the standings and Vado 17th. Forli arrives in better recent form, having collected 6 points compared to Vado's 1 point from their last matches. Forli's attack has been more productive, averaging 1 goal per game, while Vado has struggled to score, averaging just 0.6 goals. Defensively, Vado concedes more, at 1.6 goals per match, compared to Forli's 1.2. The tactical battle will likely see Forli aiming to exploit Vado's defensive vulnerabilities to secure a vital away win.

BT4Y best bet

Forli to Win

  • Forli holds a strong recent form advantage with 6 points versus Vado's 1 point.
  • Vado concedes 1.6 goals per game, higher than Forli's 1.2, indicating defensive weakness.
  • Forli averages 1 goal per match, showing better attacking output than Vado's 0.6.
  • Forli ranks 8th in the league, well above Vado's 17th position.
  • Forli's of winning is 67%, significantly higher than the implied chance of 41.7%.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Forli to win with a 67% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, better defensive record, and higher league standing. The at 2.4 offer positive value compared to the implied 41.7% chance, making this a strong selection. Forli's ability to score and limit goals conceded contrasts with Vado's struggles, reinforcing in an away victory. No data limitations affect this assessment, supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Recent form advantageForli earned 6 points vs Vado's 1
Strong positive
Defensive solidityForli concedes 1.2 goals per game vs Vado's 1.6
Positive
League positionForli 8th vs Vado 17th
Positive
Value edge56.7% model chance vs 41.7% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Forli's superior recent form and defensive stability make them the clear choice for victory in this fixture. Their higher league standing and ability to score consistently provide a solid tactical and statistical foundation for expecting an away win against struggling Vado.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Forli's consistent form and defensive resilience set them apart in this matchup, making them a logical pick to secure all three points on the road.”

Key Data Signals

Forli to Win evidence

Forli holds a strong recent form advantage with 6 points versus Vado's 1 point.

Vado concedes 1.6 goals per game, higher than Forli's 1.2, indicating defensive weakness.

Forli averages 1 goal per match, showing better attacking output than Vado's 0.6.

Forli ranks 8th in the league, well above Vado's 17th position.

What To Watch In The Data

Forli to Win notes

  • Recent goal trends show Vado has a 40% rate of matches over 2.5 goals, while Forli's is 20%.
  • The combined data suggests a moderate tempo game with some goal-scoring opportunities, but not a high-scoring affair, aligning with Forli's more controlled defensive style.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Vado

DLLLL
Last 50W 1D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 2D 4L
26 Sep 2026A Torres0-0
20 Sep 2026H Pescara0-1
16 Sep 2026A Livorno2-3
12 Sep 2026H Campobasso FC0-1
06 Sep 2026A Reggiana1-3

Forli

DDDWL
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 4D 1L
27 Sep 2026A Ostia Mare1-1
19 Sep 2026H Torres1-1
16 Sep 2026A Pineto1-1
12 Sep 2026H Vis Pesaro2-1
05 Sep 2026A Latina0-2
Market aligned with main pickForli to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Forli Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Forli's recent form is markedly better, securing 6 points compared to Vado's single point. This momentum reflects improved attacking efficiency and defensive organization, giving Forli a psychological and tactical edge heading into this match.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Vado0.6
Avg goals scored
Forli1
Vado1.6
Avg goals conceded
Forli1.2
Vado40%
BTTS rate
Forli80%
Vado40%
Over 2.5 goals
Forli20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 52%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 34%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Forli's matches have a high BTTS rate of 80%, indicating frequent scoring from both sides, while Vado's BTTS rate is 40%. Forli averages 1 goal per game, and Vado concedes 1.6, suggesting a likelihood of goals but with some defensive vulnerability on Vado's part. This supports a competitive game with scoring chances.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickForli to WinBetfred guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
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Forli Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 70%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 34%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
The 56.7% for Forli to Win sits against roughly 41.7% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Forli have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 1 for Vado.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Vado Over 2.5
20%Forli Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Recent goal trends show Vado has a 40% rate of matches over 2.5 goals, while Forli's is 20%. The combined data suggests a moderate tempo game with some goal-scoring opportunities, but not a high-scoring affair, aligning with Forli's more controlled defensive style.

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