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Union St. Gilloise crestUnion St. Gilloise
v
OH Leuven crestOH Leuven

Jupiler Pro League | Sun 11 Oct, 15:00

Union St. Gilloise v OH Leuven Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 08:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Gilloise lead the Jupiler Pro League and have been dominant at home, boasting a strong attack and tight defense. OH Leuven, positioned near the relegation zone, have struggled for points and goals but will look to avoid defeat in this challenging away fixture. The match presents a tactical contrast between Union St. Gilloise's high-scoring form and Leuven's defensive resilience, with OH Leuven aiming to capitalize on a draw no bet opportunity to mitigate risk in a tough away environment.

BT4Y best bet

OH Leuven Draw No Bet

  • OH Leuven offers strong value on Draw No Bet with a 42% versus 17.4% implied chance at 5.75 .
  • Gilloise average 3.2 goals per game, while OH Leuven score only 0.8, indicating a likely low-scoring contest.
  • OH Leuven have a 40% BTTS rate compared to Union St. Gilloise's 20%, suggesting a controlled goal environment.
  • Gilloise dominate shots and corners, but OH Leuven's defensive solidity supports a cautious approach.
  • Recent form shows Union St. Gilloise with 15 points and OH Leuven with 4, highlighting the underdog status of Leuven.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors OH Leuven Draw No Bet due to the high offering significant value against the model's 42% chance estimate. Gilloise's superior form and attacking stats, Leuven's defensive resilience and the in pricing make this a compelling risk-managed selection. The model is strong at 70%, reflecting a balance between Leuven's underdog status and the protection offered by the draw no bet market. No data limitations affect this assessment.

Model Chance32.4% model chance vs 17.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance32.4% model chance vs 17.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge32.4% model chance vs 17.4% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Confidence70%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

OH Leuven Draw No Bet is a strategic pick reflecting Leuven's need to avoid defeat and the value in the offered. Gilloise have superior form and attacking stats, Leuven's defensive approach and the draw no bet cushion make this a sensible choice for cautious bettors seeking value.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · market strategy

“OH Leuven's defensive discipline combined with the draw no bet market offers a smart way to back the underdog without full exposure, especially against a high-scoring Union St.”

Key Data Signals

OH Leuven Draw No Bet evidence

OH Leuven offers strong value on Draw No Bet with a 42% versus 17.4% implied chance at 5.75 .

Gilloise average 3.2 goals per game, while OH Leuven score only 0.8, indicating a likely low-scoring contest.

OH Leuven have a 40% BTTS rate compared to Union St. Gilloise's 20%, suggesting a controlled goal environment.

Gilloise dominate shots and corners, but OH Leuven's defensive solidity supports a cautious approach.

What To Watch In The Data

OH Leuven Draw No Bet notes

  • Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.9, indicating moderately open games.
  • Gilloise's 80% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with OH Leuven's 40%, suggesting matches may feature bursts of scoring but also periods of defensive control, aligning with a potential for controlled goal totals rather than high-scoring shootouts.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Union St. Gilloise3.2
Avg goals scored
OH Leuven0.8
Union St. Gilloise0.4
Avg goals conceded
OH Leuven1.4
Union St. Gilloise20%
BTTS rate
OH Leuven40%
Union St. Gilloise80%
Over 2.5 goals
OH Leuven40%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 81% vs implied 89% · edge -8.8 pts
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.7
Check odds @ 2.7
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Goal-scoring trends suggest a controlled scoring environment with Union St. Gilloise averaging 3.2 goals per game but only a 20% BTTS rate, while OH Leuven average 0.8 goals with a 40% BTTS rate. This indicates that while Union St. Gilloise score frequently, matches may not see both teams scoring often, supporting a cautious goals outlook.

Continue the research

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOH Leuven Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 32% vs implied 17% · edge +15 pts
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Load more odds for this section
OH Leuven to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
9
Check odds @ 9
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 53%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
The 32.4% for OH Leuven Draw No Bet sits against roughly 17.4% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Gilloise have the stronger recent points return, taking 15 points from the sample compared with 4 for OH Leuven.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Union St. Gilloise

WWWWW
Last 55W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 106W 1D 0L
20 Sep 2026A Antwerp2-0
12 Sep 2026H Lommel United5-0
05 Sep 2026A Charleroi3-2
02 Sep 2026A St. Truiden3-0
30 Aug 2026H Anderlecht3-0

OH Leuven

WDLLL
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 5L
19 Sep 2026H RAAL La Louvière2-0
12 Sep 2026H Cercle Brugge1-1
06 Sep 2026A SK Beveren0-3
03 Sep 2026A Gent0-1
29 Aug 2026H Standard Liege1-2
Market aligned with main pickOH Leuven Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 32% vs implied 17% · edge +15 pts
5.75
Check odds @ 5.75
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 42%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
OH Leuven to WinBetUK guide price · model 23%
9
Check odds @ 9
Recent form heavily favors Union St. Gilloise with 15 points from their last matches, reflecting strong offensive output and defensive solidity. OH Leuven have managed only 4 points, indicating struggles in both scoring and defense. This form disparity underlines Leuven's underdog status but also the value in a draw no bet market to mitigate risk.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Union St. Gilloise Over 2.5
40%OH Leuven Over 2.5
2.9H2H avg goals
Over the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.9, indicating moderately open games. Gilloise's 80% over 2.5 goals rate contrasts with OH Leuven's 40%, suggesting matches may feature bursts of scoring but also periods of defensive control, aligning with a potential for controlled goal totals rather than high-scoring shootouts.

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