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Union Brescia crestUnion Brescia
v
Dolomiti Bellunesi crestDolomiti Bellunesi

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 27 Sep, 13:30

Union Brescia v Dolomiti Bellunesi Stats

Data last updated: Sat 26 Sep 2026, 08:03 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Serie C - Girone A clash features second-placed Union Brescia hosting eighth-placed Dolomiti Bellunesi. Union Brescia have shown strong defensive resilience, conceding just 0.4 goals per game, while Dolomiti Bellunesi have struggled offensively, averaging only 0.6 goals per match. Despite the ranking gap, Dolomiti Bellunesi's recent form and tactical discipline suggest they can avoid defeat here, making the away Draw No Bet an intriguing option. The fixture promises a tactical battle with Dolomiti Bellunesi aiming to frustrate and capitalize on limited chances.

BT4Y best bet

Dolomiti Bellunesi Draw No Bet

  • Dolomiti Bellunesi offers 5.25 on Draw No Bet with a 23% .
  • Union Brescia concedes just 0.4 goals per game, indicating strong defense.
  • Dolomiti Bellunesi scores only 0.6 goals per game, suggesting low-scoring potential.
  • Both teams have a 40% rate for Over 2.5 Goals, showing moderate goal frequency.
  • Recent form favors Union Brescia but Dolomiti Bellunesi's resilience is notable.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies significant value in Dolomiti Bellunesi Draw No Bet at 5.25 , reflecting a 42% chance of avoiding defeat versus a market-implied 19%. Dolomiti Bellunesi's defensive solidity and ability to keep matches tight underpin this . While Union Brescia ranks higher and has better recent form, the away side's tactical discipline and low goals conceded per game support the bet. No data limitations affect , making this a strong value play with standard staking recommended.

Model Chance34% model chance vs 19% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Market Chance34% model chance vs 19% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge34% model chance vs 19% implied (+15 pts)
Strong positive
Defensive StrengthUnion Brescia concedes 0.4 goals per game
Positive
Offensive OutputDolomiti Bellunesi scores 0.6 goals per game
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Dolomiti Bellunesi's tactical discipline and defensive resilience make the Draw No Bet a sensible choice against a strong Union Brescia side. The away team’s ability to limit goals conceded and recent form data suggest they can at least secure a draw, providing a balanced risk-reward scenario in this Serie C fixture.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · tactical and defensive strength

“Dolomiti Bellunesi’s defensive organization and ability to frustrate opponents make the Draw No Bet a compelling option, especially given the attractive and their recent resilience away from home.”

Key Data Signals

Dolomiti Bellunesi Draw No Bet evidence

Dolomiti Bellunesi offers 5.25 on Draw No Bet with a 23% .

Union Brescia concedes just 0.4 goals per game, indicating strong defense.

Dolomiti Bellunesi scores only 0.6 goals per game, suggesting low-scoring potential.

Both teams have a 40% rate for Over 2.5 Goals, showing moderate goal frequency.

What To Watch In The Data

Dolomiti Bellunesi Draw No Bet notes

  • Over the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters.
  • This trend supports a controlled tempo with limited goal opportunities, aligning with the moderate Over 2.5 Goals rates and suggesting a tactical battle with defensive discipline from both sides.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Union Brescia1.6
Avg goals scored
Dolomiti Bellunesi0.6
Union Brescia0.4
Avg goals conceded
Dolomiti Bellunesi0.6
Union Brescia20%
BTTS rate
Dolomiti Bellunesi40%
Union Brescia40%
Over 2.5 goals
Dolomiti Bellunesi40%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 56% · edge +3.7 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 64%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Both teams have a 40% Over 2.5 Goals rate, indicating moderate goal-scoring frequency. However, Dolomiti Bellunesi’s low scoring average (0.6 goals per game) and Union Brescia’s strong defense (0.4 goals conceded per game) suggest a controlled, low-scoring match. The likelihood of both teams not scoring is supported by Dolomiti Bellunesi’s 40% BTTS rate versus Union Brescia’s 20%, favoring a cautious game with limited goal exchanges.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Union Brescia

WDDWW
Last 53W 2D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 0L
20 Sep 2026A Alcione4-0
17 Sep 2026H Treviso2-2
13 Sep 2026A Trento0-0
06 Sep 2026H Desenzano Calvina1-0
30 Aug 2026A Pergolettese1-0

Dolomiti Bellunesi

LDDWD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 1L
21 Sep 2026H Lumezzane1-2
17 Sep 2026A Renate0-0
13 Sep 2026H Albinoleffe0-0
06 Sep 2026A Giana Erminio2-1
30 Aug 2026H Alcione0-0
Market aligned with main pickDolomiti Bellunesi Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 34% vs implied 19% · edge +15 pts
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 45%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Dolomiti Bellunesi to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
8
Check odds @ 8
Union Brescia leads the recent form with 11 points and a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.4 goals per game. Dolomiti Bellunesi has accumulated 6 points with a lower scoring rate, highlighting their defensive focus. This form data supports Dolomiti Bellunesi’s potential to avoid defeat by relying on defensive solidity and counter-attacking opportunities.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickDolomiti Bellunesi Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 34% vs implied 19% · edge +15 pts
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Load more odds for this section
Dolomiti Bellunesi to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
8
Check odds @ 8
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 40%
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 45%
2
Check odds @ 2
The 34% for Dolomiti Bellunesi Draw No Bet sits against roughly 19% implied by the current price (+15 pts). Union Brescia have the stronger recent points return, taking 11 points from the sample compared with 6 for Dolomiti Bellunesi.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Union Brescia Over 2.5
40%Dolomiti Bellunesi Over 2.5
2H2H avg goals
Over the last three head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2, indicating relatively low-scoring encounters. This trend supports a controlled tempo with limited goal opportunities, aligning with the moderate Over 2.5 Goals rates and suggesting a tactical battle with defensive discipline from both sides.

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