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U.N.A.M. - Pumas crestU.N.A.M. - Pumas
v
Necaxa crestNecaxa

Liga MX | Mon 24 Aug, 02:00

U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Necaxa Stats

Data last updated: Sun 23 Aug 2026, 07:22 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

- Pumas and Necaxa meet in a Liga MX clash where attacking intent and goal-scoring opportunities are expected to shape the contest. Both teams have shown offensive promise recently, with Necaxa particularly prolific in matches featuring multiple goals. The tactical setup suggests an open game with chances at both ends, as both sides seek to climb the standings early in the season. Defensive vulnerabilities and a willingness to commit players forward increase the likelihood of a high-scoring encounter, making goal markets especially relevant for this fixture.

BT4Y best bet

Over 2.5 Goals

  • - Pumas have a 75% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches.
  • Necaxa have recorded Over 2.5 Goals in 100% of their recent games.
  • Both teams average over 10 shots per game, indicating attacking pressure.
  • Necaxa’s average of 6.67 corners per match suggests sustained offensive territory.
  • Key players like J. Martínez contribute significant shot volume and goal threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a strong 75.8% chance for Over 2.5 Goals, reflecting both teams' offensive tendencies and recent match patterns. Necaxa’s perfect Over 2.5 record combined with U.N.A.M. - Pumas’ solid attacking output supports a high-scoring game. The price offers positive value with an 18.7% edge, making this an attractive bet. Player-level data shows key attackers generating numerous shots on target, reinforcing the likelihood of multiple goals. Defensive concessions on both sides further enhance the chance of a goal-rich match.

Model Chance75.8%
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 RatesU.N.A.M. 75%, Necaxa 100%
Strong positive
Shots Per GameU.N.A.M. 10.5, Necaxa 14.67
Positive
Player Goal ThreatHigh for J. Carranza and G. Martínez
Positive
Value Edge18.7% positive
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking game as both U.N.A.M. - Pumas and Necaxa push forward aggressively. Necaxa’s consistent high-scoring matches and U.N.A.M.’s offensive pressure create a strong foundation for multiple goals. The data supports Over 2.5 Goals as a tactically sound and statistically backed selection for this fixture.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Over 2.5 Goals

“This fixture features two teams with clear attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities, making Over 2.5 Goals a compelling choice. Necaxa’s perfect recent record for high-scoring games combined with U.N.A.M. - Pumas’ shot volume signals a lively encounter with multiple goal opportunities.”

Key Data Signals

Over 2.5 Goals evidence

- Pumas have a 75% Over 2.5 Goals rate in recent matches.

Necaxa have recorded Over 2.5 Goals in 100% of their recent games.

Both teams average over 10 shots per game, indicating attacking pressure.

Necaxa’s average of 6.67 corners per match suggests sustained offensive territory.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.2, close to the Over 2.5 threshold.
  • Combined with recent form showing high Over 2.5 rates, this trend panel suggests a tempo and style conducive to a goal-rich match, though slightly below the model’s projected rate.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas5
Avg corners for
Necaxa4.5
U.N.A.M. - Pumas7.33
Avg total corners
Necaxa9
U.N.A.M. - Pumas1
Avg yellow cards
Necaxa3
U.N.A.M. - Pumas11.33
Avg shots
Necaxa16.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 58% · edge -0.8 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Over 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 43%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Necaxa’s higher average corners (6.67) and shots on target (5.33) indicate sustained attacking pressure and territorial control at times. - Pumas also contribute with solid shot volume, suggesting a dynamic game with frequent set-piece opportunities and fouls, increasing chances for shots and cards.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas1.75
Avg goals scored
Necaxa1.5
U.N.A.M. - Pumas1.25
Avg goals conceded
Necaxa1.75
U.N.A.M. - Pumas50%
BTTS rate
Necaxa100%
U.N.A.M. - Pumas75%
Over 2.5 goals
Necaxa100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 51%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Both teams have demonstrated offensive capabilities with U.N.A.M. - Pumas scoring 1.75 goals per game and Necaxa 1.5, while Necaxa’s 100% BTTS and Over 2.5 rates highlight their involvement in open, goal-rich matches. This trend supports expectations for multiple goals and both teams scoring.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
U.N.A.M. - Pumas to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
U.N.A.M. - Pumas Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 61%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Necaxa to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Necaxa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
The Over 2.5 Goals market is priced attractively relative to the model’s 75.8% probability, offering a positive of 18.7%. This suggests the current of 1.75 underestimate the likelihood of a high-scoring game, making the bet a strong candidate without price sensitivity concerns.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

DWWL
Last 52W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 1D 1L
16 Aug 2026H Club Queretaro0-0
01 Aug 2026A FC Juarez5-1
22 Jul 2026A Toluca2-1
19 Jul 2026H CF Pachuca0-3

Necaxa

LLWW
Last 52W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 2L
18 Aug 2026H Leon1-2
03 Aug 2026A Toluca1-3
27 Jul 2026H Monterrey2-1
17 Jul 2026H Atlante FC2-1
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 79% vs implied 80% · edge -1.1 pts
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
U.N.A.M. - Pumas to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
U.N.A.M. - Pumas Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 61%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Necaxa to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Necaxa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
Recent form data shows U.N.A.M. - Pumas with 7 points and Necaxa with 6, both featuring matches with multiple goals. - Pumas have a 75% Over 2.5 rate, while Necaxa have a perfect 100%, reinforcing the expectation of a high-scoring encounter based on current momentum.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins
3Draws
4Necaxa wins
07 Mar 2026Necaxa v U.N.A.M. - Pumas0-1
11 Aug 2025U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Necaxa1-1
12 Jan 2025U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Necaxa2-1
14 Sep 2024Necaxa v U.N.A.M. - Pumas2-0
01 Feb 2024U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Necaxa2-2
28 Oct 2023Necaxa v U.N.A.M. - Pumas1-0
Market aligned with main pickOver 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
U.N.A.M. - Pumas to WinBet365 guide price · model 52%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Necaxa to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
DrawBet365 guide price · model 27%
3.7
Check odds @ 3.7
The ten previous meetings between these teams average 2.2 goals per game, indicating moderately open contests historically. While this is slightly below the Over 2.5 threshold, recent attacking trends and form data provide stronger support for a high-scoring outcome in this fixture.
Season team stats

Liga MX

U.N.A.M. - Pumas4
Played
Necaxa4
U.N.A.M. - Pumas1.8
Avg goals for
Necaxa1.5
U.N.A.M. - Pumas1.3
Avg goals against
Necaxa1.8
U.N.A.M. - Pumas1
Clean sheets
Necaxa0
Best odds for this sectionU.N.A.M. - Pumas to WinBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 51% · edge +0.3 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
U.N.A.M. - Pumas Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 61%
1.52
Check odds @ 1.52
Necaxa to WinBet365 guide price · model 32%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
Necaxa Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 42%
2.42
Check odds @ 2.42
Season-long statistics reveal both teams average over 1.5 goals scored per match and concede a similar number, indicating open games with defensive vulnerabilities. These profiles align with a match likely to produce three or more goals, supporting the Over 2.5 selection.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
9U.N.A.M. - Pumas742112
11Necaxa64202-1
Both teams sit mid-table with close points totals, suggesting motivation to secure a win and improve standings. This competitive context encourages offensive play and risk-taking, increasing the probability of multiple goals in the fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%U.N.A.M. - Pumas Over 2.5
100%Necaxa Over 2.5
2.2H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game is 2.2, close to the Over 2.5 threshold. Combined with recent form showing high Over 2.5 rates, this trend panel suggests a tempo and style conducive to a goal-rich match, though slightly below the model’s projected rate.

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