Football Stats Hub

Treviso crestTreviso
v
Ospitaletto crestOspitaletto

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 11 Oct, 16:30

Treviso v Ospitaletto Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 09:01 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Treviso and Ospitaletto face off in a Serie C - Girone A fixture where both teams have shown cautious attacking tendencies this season. Treviso sits 6th with 13 points, while Ospitaletto is just above in 3rd with 15 points, reflecting a competitive but tightly contested league phase. Both sides average less than two goals per game and have similar defensive records, suggesting a tactical battle with limited scoring opportunities. Recent form data indicates a pattern of low-scoring matches, setting the stage for a match likely decided by narrow margins and disciplined defensive play.

BT4Y best bet

Under 2.5 Goals

  • Both teams average only 1.0 to 1.6 goals per game this season, indicating limited scoring.
  • Treviso and Ospitaletto each have a 40% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, showing a tendency towards lower-scoring games.
  • Recent form shows both teams concede fewer than one goal per game, supporting a tight defensive setup.
  • No previous head-to-head data exists, increasing the likelihood of cautious play as teams feel each other out.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Under 2.5 Goals with a 65% probability, reflecting both teams' defensive solidity and modest scoring output. Treviso and Ospitaletto have similar low over 2.5 goal rates (40%), and their recent matches show disciplined defenses conceding less than one goal per game. This statistical profile aligns with a tactical approach prioritizing defensive organization over aggressive offense. The at 1.62 offer a small positive , making this a sensible selection based on current form and season-long trends.

Model Probability65% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+3.3 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Goals ConcededTreviso 0.6, Ospitaletto 0.8 per game
Positive
Over 2.5 Goal RateBoth teams at 40%
Positive
Implied Odds vs Model65% model chance vs 61.7% implied (+3.3 pts)
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This match is likely to be a tactical and defensive contest, with both Treviso and Ospitaletto showing disciplined defensive records and modest attacking output. The Under 2.5 Goals pick aligns with recent form data and season-long trends, suggesting a low-scoring game where defensive organization will be key. Expect a cautious tempo with limited clear-cut chances.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive solidity and tactical caution

“Treviso and Ospitaletto's similar defensive profiles and low scoring averages point to a match where goals will be scarce. The tactical discipline on both sides should keep the scoreline tight, making Under 2.5 Goals a logical choice.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average only 1.0 to 1.6 goals per game this season, indicating limited scoring.

Recent form shows both teams concede fewer than one goal per game, supporting a tight defensive setup.

No previous head-to-head data exists, increasing the likelihood of cautious play as teams feel each other out.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

  • No head-to-head data exists for this fixture, but recent league trends show both teams have a 40% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals in their last games.
  • This moderate rate indicates a balanced tempo with occasional goal bursts, but overall a tendency towards matches with fewer goals, consistent with a defensive and measured playing style.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Treviso1
Avg goals scored
Ospitaletto1.6
Treviso0.6
Avg goals conceded
Ospitaletto0.8
Treviso40%
BTTS rate
Ospitaletto40%
Treviso40%
Over 2.5 goals
Ospitaletto40%
Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 65% vs implied 62% · edge +3.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 39%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 57%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%
4
Check odds @ 4
Both teams have low goal averages this season, with Treviso scoring 1.0 and Ospitaletto 1.6 goals per game, while conceding fewer than one goal each on average. Both teams also have a 40% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a general trend towards tighter scorelines. This suggests a game where goals may be limited and both teams could struggle to break through.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

player stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Treviso

DWDDW
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 1L
04 Oct 2026H Giana Erminio0-0
27 Sep 2026A Renate1-0
21 Sep 2026H Desenzano Calvina0-0
17 Sep 2026A Union Brescia2-2
13 Sep 2026H PRO Vercelli2-1

Ospitaletto

DWLDW
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 3D 1L
03 Oct 2026H Renate1-1
26 Sep 2026A Novara2-0
20 Sep 2026H Cittadella0-1
17 Sep 2026A Athletic Carpi2-2
13 Sep 2026H Juventus U233-0
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 64% · edge +6.4 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Load more odds for this section
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Ospitaletto Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 51%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Ospitaletto to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
3
Check odds @ 3
Treviso Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Treviso to WinBetUK guide price · model 44%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Recent form data shows Treviso has earned 9 points with an average of 1.0 goals scored and 0.6 conceded per game, while Ospitaletto has 8 points with 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded. Both teams have a 40% over 2.5 goals rate, reinforcing a pattern of low-scoring matches. This form supports the expectation of a tight, defensively controlled game.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOspitaletto Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 51% vs implied 46% · edge +5.3 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Ospitaletto to WinBetMGM guide price · model 40%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Treviso Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 54%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Treviso to WinBetUK guide price · model 44%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 39%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
The 65% for Under 2.5 Goals sits against roughly 61.7% implied by the current price (+3.3 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 40% for Treviso and 40% for Ospitaletto, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Treviso Over 2.5
40%Ospitaletto Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
No head-to-head data exists for this fixture, but recent league trends show both teams have a 40% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals in their last games. This moderate rate indicates a balanced tempo with occasional goal bursts, but overall a tendency towards matches with fewer goals, consistent with a defensive and measured playing style.

Loading deeper match data…