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Treviso crestTreviso
v
Giana Erminio crestGiana Erminio

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 04 Oct, 11:30

Treviso v Giana Erminio Stats

Data last updated: Sat 03 Oct 2026, 08:27 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Treviso hosts Giana Erminio in a Serie C - Girone A clash where Treviso's recent form and league position suggest a strong home advantage. Treviso sits comfortably in 6th place with 12 points, while Giana Erminio struggles near the bottom with just 3 points. Treviso's defensive solidity and ability to grind out results contrast with Giana Erminio's difficulties in both scoring and preventing goals. The tactical setup favors Treviso's control and resilience, making them the clear favorites in this encounter.

BT4Y best bet

Treviso to Win

  • Treviso holds a significant league position advantage, ranked 6th versus Giana Erminio's 19th.
  • Treviso has accumulated 12 points compared to Giana Erminio's 3, reflecting better recent outcomes.
  • Treviso concedes fewer goals per game (0.8) than Giana Erminio (1.4), indicating stronger defense.
  • Treviso's home form and tactical discipline support a win probability above 70%.
  • Both teams have a moderate Over 2.5 Goals rate of 40%, suggesting a controlled scoring environment.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Treviso to win with a 72.7% chance, reflecting their superior league standing, recent form, and defensive record. Treviso's ability to limit goals against to 0.8 per game and maintain consistent point accumulation underlines their control in matches. Giana Erminio's struggles in both scoring and defense, coupled with their low points tally, reinforce the likelihood of a Treviso victory. The offer positive value with a 14.9% edge, making this a confident selection based on current data and tactical context.

Model Win Probability72.7%
Strong positive
League Position Gap6th vs 19th
Strong positive
Defensive Strength0.8 goals conceded per game (Treviso) vs 1.4 (Giana Erminio)
Positive
Recent Points12 (Treviso) vs 3 (Giana Erminio)
Strong positive
Over 2.5 Goals RateBoth teams at 40%, indicating controlled scoring
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Treviso's tactical discipline and superior league form make them the clear favorites to secure victory. Their consistent defensive performances and ability to accumulate points contrast sharply with Giana Erminio's struggles, suggesting Treviso will control the match and capitalize on home advantage.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Treviso to Win

“Treviso's solid defensive record and league standing provide a strong foundation for a home win, especially against a Giana Erminio side that has yet to find consistent form this season.”

Key Data Signals

Treviso to Win evidence

Treviso holds a significant league position advantage, ranked 6th versus Giana Erminio's 19th.

Treviso has accumulated 12 points compared to Giana Erminio's 3, reflecting better recent outcomes.

Treviso concedes fewer goals per game (0.8) than Giana Erminio (1.4), indicating stronger defense.

Treviso's home form and tactical discipline support a win probability above 70%.

What To Watch In The Data

Treviso to Win notes

  • Over the recent matches, both teams have a 40% rate for Over 2.5 Goals, suggesting a trend towards controlled scoring games.
  • This trend points to a match likely decided by tactical discipline and defensive organization rather than high goal tallies.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Treviso1.2
Avg goals scored
Giana Erminio1
Treviso0.8
Avg goals conceded
Giana Erminio1.4
Treviso60%
BTTS rate
Giana Erminio80%
Treviso40%
Over 2.5 goals
Giana Erminio40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 63%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 24%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams have a moderate Over 2.5 Goals rate of 40%, indicating matches tend to be controlled with fewer goals. Treviso's stronger defense and Giana Erminio's scoring struggles suggest a low-scoring game with a possibility of BTTS No, aligning with a tactical focus on defensive solidity.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Treviso

WDDWD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 3D 1L
27 Sep 2026A Renate1-0
21 Sep 2026H Desenzano Calvina0-0
17 Sep 2026A Union Brescia2-2
13 Sep 2026H PRO Vercelli2-1
07 Sep 2026A Alcione1-1

Giana Erminio

DDDLL
Last 50W 3D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 3D 4L
26 Sep 2026H PRO Vercelli1-1
20 Sep 2026A Folgore Caratese1-1
17 Sep 2026H Trento2-2
13 Sep 2026A Lecco0-1
06 Sep 2026H Dolomiti Bellunesi1-2
Market aligned with main pickTreviso to WinBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +14.9 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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Treviso Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Treviso's recent form is markedly stronger, with 9 points gained compared to Giana Erminio's 3. This reflects Treviso's ability to secure results consistently, leveraging defensive strength and effective game management, which should continue in this fixture.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickTreviso to WinBet365 guide price · Model 73% vs implied 58% · edge +14.9 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
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BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 65%
2
Check odds @ 2
Treviso Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 42%
2.15
Check odds @ 2.15
The 72.7% for Treviso to Win sits against roughly 57.8% implied by the current price (+14.9 pts). Treviso have the stronger recent points return, taking 9 points from the sample compared with 3 for Giana Erminio.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Treviso Over 2.5
40%Giana Erminio Over 2.5
-H2H avg goals
Over the recent matches, both teams have a 40% rate for Over 2.5 Goals, suggesting a trend towards controlled scoring games. This trend points to a match likely decided by tactical discipline and defensive organization rather than high goal tallies.

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