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Toronto FC crestToronto FC
v
Charlotte crestCharlotte

Major League Soccer | Thu 20 Aug, 00:30

Toronto FC v Charlotte Stats

Data last updated: Fri 21 Aug 2026, 04:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Charlotte arrives in this Major League Soccer clash with a strong recent run, sitting fifth in the standings with 28 points compared to Toronto FC's twelfth place and 20 points. Charlotte's attack has been more productive, averaging 1.8 goals per game versus Toronto FC's 0.8, while defensively both teams concede under one goal per match. The visitors' higher league position and better goal output suggest they will look to control the game and capitalize on their offensive momentum, while Toronto FC aims to tighten up defensively and exploit counterattack opportunities in a fixture that could hinge on tactical discipline and finishing efficiency.

BT4Y best bet

Charlotte to Win

  • Charlotte ranks 5th with 28 points; Toronto FC is 12th with 20 points.
  • Charlotte averages 1.8 goals per game; Toronto FC averages 0.8 goals per game.
  • Charlotte has a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate; Toronto FC's rate is 40%.
  • Charlotte averages 12.4 shots and 5.2 shots on target per game, higher than Toronto FC's 10 shots and 2.8 on target.
  • Both teams have similar BTTS rates at 60%, indicating goal-scoring chances for both sides.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Charlotte to win with a 64.4% chance, reflecting their superior recent form, higher league standing, and more potent attack. Charlotte's average of 1.8 goals per game and better shot metrics indicate a stronger offensive threat compared to Toronto FC's lower scoring output. The significant of 31.1% at of 3.0 highlights this as a positive-value bet. Both teams' BTTS rates suggest an open game, but Charlotte's overall quality and momentum make them the likely winners. No data limitations or price warnings affect this selection.

Model Win Probability64.4%
Strong positive
Value Edge31.1%
Strong positive
Charlotte Goals per Game1.8
Positive
Toronto FC Goals per Game0.8
Negative
Shots on Target per Game (Charlotte)5.2
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Charlotte's superior attacking form and higher league position make them the logical choice to secure victory. Their ability to create more shots and convert chances underpins this pick, while Toronto FC's struggles in front of goal reduce their likelihood of taking points from this match.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Charlotte's offensive efficiency and recent momentum provide a clear tactical advantage in this matchup, making them the favored side to win despite the away venue.”

Key Data Signals

Charlotte to Win evidence

Charlotte ranks 5th with 28 points; Toronto FC is 12th with 20 points.

Charlotte averages 1.8 goals per game; Toronto FC averages 0.8 goals per game.

Charlotte has a 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate; Toronto FC's rate is 40%.

Charlotte averages 12.4 shots and 5.2 shots on target per game, higher than Toronto FC's 10 shots and 2.8 on target.

What To Watch In The Data

Charlotte to Win notes

  • In the last nine meetings, the average goals scored per match is 3, indicating a tendency for relatively high-scoring games.
  • Charlotte's 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate over recent matches supports the expectation of an open game with multiple scoring opportunities, driven by their attacking style and Toronto FC's defensive vulnerabilities.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Toronto FC3.8
Avg corners for
Charlotte3.5
Toronto FC11
Avg total corners
Charlotte11
Toronto FC1.4
Avg yellow cards
Charlotte1.25
Toronto FC10
Avg shots
Charlotte12.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 69% vs implied 56% · edge +13.4 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Charlotte averages slightly fewer corners than Toronto FC but compensates with higher shot volume and accuracy, indicating more direct attacking play. Both teams have similar yellow card averages (1.4 per game), suggesting a balanced disciplinary profile unlikely to disrupt the flow or lead to significant suspensions.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Toronto FC0.8
Avg goals scored
Charlotte1.8
Toronto FC0.8
Avg goals conceded
Charlotte1
Toronto FC60%
BTTS rate
Charlotte60%
Toronto FC40%
Over 2.5 goals
Charlotte60%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 64% · edge +3 pts
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 46%
2.08
Check odds @ 2.08
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 37%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Both teams have a 60% BTTS rate, and Charlotte's 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate versus Toronto FC's 40% suggests a moderately open game with potential for multiple goals. The average goals per match in their head-to-head is 3, supporting the likelihood of goals from both sides and a lively attacking contest.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickCharlotte to WinBetfred guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
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Charlotte Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Charlotte's of 3.0 imply a 33.3% chance, significantly lower than the model's 64.4% probability, indicating strong value in backing the away win. This price sensitivity suggests bettors should consider standard stakes to capitalize on the favorable discrepancy between price and .
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Toronto FC

WDLDD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 4D 5L
16 Aug 2026H New England Revolution2-1
01 Aug 2026A New York City FC1-1
26 Jul 2026A DC United1-2
23 Jul 2026A New England Revolution0-0
17 Jul 2026A CF Montreal0-0

Charlotte

WLWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 104W 2D 4L
16 Aug 2026H Columbus Crew3-1
02 Aug 2026A Chicago Fire1-2
25 Jul 2026A New York Red Bulls2-0
23 Jul 2026H Atlanta United FC2-2
24 May 2026H New England Revolution1-0
Market aligned with main pickCharlotte to WinBetfred guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 77%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Charlotte Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Charlotte has accumulated 10 points recently, outperforming Toronto FC's 6 points, reflecting better momentum and . Charlotte's higher goal-scoring rate and more frequent shots on target demonstrate an upward trend in offensive productivity, contrasting with Toronto FC's struggles to score and convert chances in recent matches.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Toronto FC wins
1Draws
5Charlotte wins
17 May 2026Charlotte v Toronto FC3-1
27 Jul 2025Charlotte v Toronto FC2-0
01 Jun 2025Toronto FC v Charlotte0-2
14 Apr 2024Charlotte v Toronto FC3-2
09 Mar 2024Toronto FC v Charlotte1-0
05 Oct 2023Charlotte v Toronto FC3-0
Market aligned with main pickCharlotte to WinBetfred guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.57
Check odds @ 1.57
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 58%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
The head-to-head sample of nine matches shows an average of three goals per game, suggesting historically open contests. While previous meetings provide some context, current form and squad quality differences are more decisive for this fixture, with Charlotte's recent superiority outweighing historical parity.
Season team stats

Major League Soccer

Toronto FC20
Played
Charlotte20
Toronto FC1.5
Avg goals for
Charlotte1.8
Toronto FC1.8
Avg goals against
Charlotte1.6
Toronto FC3
Clean sheets
Charlotte3
Market aligned with main pickCharlotte to WinBetfred guide price · Model 48% vs implied 33% · edge +15 pts
3
Check odds @ 3
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Charlotte Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.88
Check odds @ 1.88
Over the season, Charlotte's attack has been more productive, averaging 1.8 goals per game compared to Toronto FC's 0.8. Defensively, both teams concede under one goal per game, but Charlotte's superior offensive numbers suggest they are more likely to break down Toronto FC's defense and secure a win.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
6Charlotte29208574
11Toronto FC2120497-7
Charlotte's fifth-place standing with 28 points contrasts with Toronto FC's twelfth place and 20 points, highlighting a clear gap in league performance. This difference reflects Charlotte's consistency and ability to accumulate points, providing a competitive edge in this fixture despite the away setting.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Toronto FC Over 2.5
60%Charlotte Over 2.5
3H2H avg goals
In the last nine meetings, the average goals scored per match is 3, indicating a tendency for relatively high-scoring games. Charlotte's 60% Over 2.5 Goals rate over recent matches supports the expectation of an open game with multiple scoring opportunities, driven by their attacking style and Toronto FC's defensive vulnerabilities.

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