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Toronto FC crestToronto FC
v
CF Montreal crestCF Montreal

Major League Soccer | Sat 10 Oct, 18:00

Toronto FC v CF Montreal Stats

Data last updated: Sun 11 Oct 2026, 20:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Toronto FC hosts CF Montreal in a crucial Major League Soccer clash where both teams are fighting to improve their standings late in the season. Toronto FC has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 2.6 goals per game recently, while CF Montreal's attack has been less potent but capable of contributing to high-scoring affairs. The match promises an open tempo with Toronto FC's offensive players pushing forward aggressively, seeking to capitalize on Montreal's defensive vulnerabilities. Both sides have shown mixed recent form, adding an element of unpredictability to this encounter at a pivotal stage of the campaign.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • Toronto FC concedes 2.6 goals per game recently, indicating defensive frailty.
  • CF Montreal averages 1.4 goals scored per game combined with Toronto's attacking pressure.
  • Both teams have a combined average of 3.7 goals in their last 10 head-to-head matches.
  • Toronto FC's matches have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting frequent high scoring.
  • Key attackers like P. Sargent contribute significant shot volume and goal threat.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 49.2% chance for Over 3.5 Goals, slightly higher than the implied market probability, indicating a modest . Toronto FC's defensive struggles combined with CF Montreal's attacking contributions and a high average of goals in recent head-to-head matches support this expectation. The teams' recent matches frequently exceed 2.5 goals, reinforcing the likelihood of a high-scoring game. No significant data limitations affect , making this a well-supported selection with standard staking recommended.

Model Chance49.2% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+3.7 pts)
Positive
Implied Market Chance49.2% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+3.7 pts)
Positive
Toronto FC Defensive Record2.6 goals conceded per game
Strong positive
Head-to-Head Average Goals3.7 goals per match
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 Goals Rate (Toronto FC)80%
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking match as Toronto FC's defensive vulnerabilities meet CF Montreal's opportunistic offense. The high average goals in recent meetings and Toronto's recent defensive record suggest a game likely to surpass 3.5 goals, making this an attractive option for bettors seeking an exciting, high-scoring encounter.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match goal-scoring potential

“Toronto FC's defensive lapses combined with Montreal's attacking players create a scenario ripe for multiple goals. The historical goal averages and current form underline the potential for a lively, high-scoring match.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Toronto FC concedes 2.6 goals per game recently, indicating defensive frailty.

CF Montreal averages 1.4 goals scored per game combined with Toronto's attacking pressure.

Both teams have a combined average of 3.7 goals in their last 10 head-to-head matches.

Toronto FC's matches have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting frequent high scoring.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches between these teams average 3.7 goals, well above typical MLS averages.
  • This recent trend over a meaningful sample suggests a history of open, high-scoring encounters.
  • The tempo and attacking styles of both sides contribute to this pattern, reinforcing the likelihood of a goal-rich game in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Toronto FC1.4
Avg goals scored
CF Montreal0.8
Toronto FC2.6
Avg goals conceded
CF Montreal1.6
Toronto FC60%
BTTS rate
CF Montreal40%
Toronto FC80%
Over 2.5 goals
CF Montreal40%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 49% vs implied 46% · edge +3.7 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 85%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 37%
2.4
Check odds @ 2.4
Recent form shows Toronto FC averaging 1.4 goals scored but conceding 2.6, while CF Montreal scores 0.8 and concedes 1.6. Their combined matches have a high average of 3.7 goals, with Toronto's games hitting Over 2.5 goals 80% of the time. Both teams' moderate BTTS rates indicate goals from both sides are plausible, supporting a high total goals expectation.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Major League Soccer fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 50% · edge +11.4 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
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Toronto FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 67%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 67%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
CF Montreal to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
The 49.2% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+3.7 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 80% for Toronto FC and 40% for CF Montreal, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Toronto FC

LLLWD
Last 51W 1D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 4D 3L
27 Sep 2026A Nashville SC0-2
20 Sep 2026A St. Louis City1-3
13 Sep 2026A Orlando City SC0-3
10 Sep 2026H Nashville SC2-1
06 Sep 2026H Chicago Fire4-4

CF Montreal

WLLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
27 Sep 2026H FC Cincinnati3-1
20 Sep 2026H Columbus Crew0-2
13 Sep 2026A Colorado Rapids0-1
10 Sep 2026H Charlotte1-2
06 Sep 2026A Philadelphia Union0-2
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 56% · edge +10.6 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Toronto FC Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.28
Check odds @ 1.28
CF Montreal to WinBetfred guide price · model 37%
3.6
Check odds @ 3.6
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 29%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Toronto FC to WinBet365 guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
CF Montreal Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 47%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Toronto FC's recent form includes 4 points with an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, reflecting frequent high-scoring matches despite defensive issues. CF Montreal has 3 points with a 40% Over 2.5 rate, showing less frequent high totals but still contributing to open games. The contrasting recent outputs suggest a match prone to goals, especially given Toronto's offensive pressure and Montreal's counterattacking potential.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Toronto FC Over 2.5
40%CF Montreal Over 2.5
3.7H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches between these teams average 3.7 goals, well above typical MLS averages. This recent trend over a meaningful sample suggests a history of open, high-scoring encounters. The tempo and attacking styles of both sides contribute to this pattern, reinforcing the likelihood of a goal-rich game in this fixture.

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