Toluca

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Liga MX | Wed 22 Jul, 04:05

Toluca v U.N.A.M. - Pumas Stats

Data last updated: Tue 18 Aug 2026, 21:31 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Toluca face U.N.A.M. - Pumas in Liga MX on Wed 22 Jul, 04:05. Toluca come in with 3 recent points and 2 goals per match, while U.N.A.M. - Pumas have 0 points and 0 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Toluca to Win

At 1.6, Toluca to Win implies roughly 63%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 74%.
Toluca have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for U.N.A.M.
Toluca have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Toluca to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 74% for Toluca to Win sits against roughly 63% implied by the current price. Toluca have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for U.N.A.M.

Model chance vs price74% model chance against roughly 63% implied

Positive

Toluca have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points.Visible data support

Positive

Toluca have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per.Visible data support

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Toluca Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Toluca have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for U.N.A.M. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Toluca to Win evidence

Toluca have the stronger recent points return, taking 3 points from the sample compared with 0 for U.N.A.M.

Toluca have the cleaner defensive sample at 0 conceded per match, which helps the Toluca Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Toluca sit 5 in the table, while U.N.A.M. - Pumas sit 6, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Toluca to Win notes

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Toluca2

Avg corners for

U.N.A.M. - Pumas9

Toluca11

Avg total corners

U.N.A.M. - Pumas13

Toluca2

Avg yellow cards

U.N.A.M. - Pumas1

Toluca14

Avg shots

U.N.A.M. - Pumas9

Best odds for this sectionOver 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 75% vs implied 62% · edge +13.3 pts

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

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Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 65%

Check odds @ 2

Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price

2.62

Check odds @ 2.62

Over 8.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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Useful next reads

corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles football stats hub football hub football predictions hub best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Toluca2

Avg goals scored

U.N.A.M. - Pumas0

Toluca0

Avg goals conceded

U.N.A.M. - Pumas3

Toluca0%

BTTS rate

U.N.A.M. - Pumas0%

Toluca0%

Over 2.5 goals

U.N.A.M. - Pumas100%

Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 63% vs implied 48% · edge +15 pts

2.1

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Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 74%

1.18

Check odds @ 1.18

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%

1.65

Check odds @ 1.65

Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 38%

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 33%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickToluca to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 63% · edge +11.5 pts

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 75%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

Toluca Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%

1.32

Check odds @ 1.32

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%

1.65

Check odds @ 1.65

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 33%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

Toluca to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Toluca

Last 51W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 0D 0L

19 Jul 2026A Guadalajara Chivas2-0

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

Last 50W 0D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 1L

19 Jul 2026H CF Pachuca0-3

Market aligned with main pickToluca to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 63% · edge +11.5 pts

1.6

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Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%

1.17

Check odds @ 1.17

Toluca Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%

1.32

Check odds @ 1.32

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Toluca wins

6Draws

2U.N.A.M. - Pumas wins

04 Mar 2026U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Toluca2-3

17 Aug 2025Toluca v U.N.A.M. - Pumas1-1

30 Jan 2025U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Toluca1-1

06 Oct 2024Toluca v U.N.A.M. - Pumas1-1

18 Mar 2024Toluca v U.N.A.M. - Pumas3-0

19 Aug 2023U.N.A.M. - Pumas v Toluca1-1

Market aligned with main pickToluca to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 63% · edge +11.5 pts

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 56%

1.65

Check odds @ 1.65

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 33%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

The head-to-head sample gives context for Toluca to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.

Season team stats

Liga MX

Toluca4

Played

U.N.A.M. - Pumas4

Toluca1.5

Avg goals for

U.N.A.M. - Pumas1.8

Toluca0.8

Avg goals against

U.N.A.M. - Pumas1.3

Toluca2

Clean sheets

U.N.A.M. - Pumas1

Market aligned with main pickToluca to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 74% vs implied 63% · edge +11.5 pts

1.6

Check odds @ 1.6

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Toluca Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 78%

1.32

Check odds @ 1.32

Season data supports Toluca to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
5	Toluca	7	4	2	1	1	3
6	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	7	4	2	1	1	2

Toluca sit in position 5, while U.N.A.M. - Pumas sit in position 6, so table pressure belongs in the Toluca to Win assessment.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Toluca Over 2.5

100%U.N.A.M. - Pumas Over 2.5

3.1H2H avg goals

The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Toluca sit at 0% and U.N.A.M. - Pumas sit at 100% with the H2H average at 3.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Toluca v U.N.A.M. - Pumas Stats

Match Report

Toluca to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Toluca

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

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Football Stats Hub

Toluca v U.N.A.M. - Pumas Stats

Match Report

Toluca to Win

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Toluca

U.N.A.M. - Pumas

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